What Do Iranians Say About the 2024 U.S. Elections?

The U.S. presidential elections are followed not only in the country but worldwide, and determining Joe Biden's successor could impact millions globally. Iranians are no exception and are eager to know who will enter the White House at the end of this competition. Among Iranians, each of the two candidates has its own supporters. While some hope that the arrival of Kamala Harris and the presence of Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran will open the doors for dialogue between Iran and the West, others are pinning their hopes on Trump's return to power, believing that the continuation of the 'maximum pressure' strategy pursued between 2016 and 2020 could create the necessary conditions for the collapse of the Islamic Republic. Nasim Behrouz, spokesperson for 'Iranians for Donald Trump,' who is working in the U.S. for the victory of this candidate, believes that Trump's presence means further weakening of the Islamic Republic. Behrouz, who lives in the U.S., claims that most Iranians inside the country support Trump's victory in this election. She tells Radio Farda: 'Our people have lived through the experiences of Trump, Biden, and Obama, and based on these experiences and comparisons, it is easy to understand why most Iranians inside the country support Trump's return to power. During his presidency, actions such as the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, the elimination of Qassem Soleimani, and designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization encouraged the people of Iran.' This political activist, who believes that lifting sanctions on Iran under Democratic administrations has had no effect on people's livelihoods, adds: 'As right-wing politicians, we believe that Trump's presence means further weakening of the Islamic Republic and will lead this regime to greater isolation due to the pursuit of a maximum pressure policy by the U.S. The experience of Democratic presidents has shown that the Islamic Republic moves towards more extortion, and lifting sanctions does not change the livelihood situation of Iranians.' Although Trump-supporting Iranians believe that lifting sanctions has had no effect on people's livelihoods, the other group argues that recalling the experience of the JCPOA years until the U.S. withdrawal from that agreement shows that during that time, inflation rates, unemployment, employment status, and currency rates all moved positively. Arash Azizi, a historian and university lecturer in the U.S., considers Trump's return to power detrimental not only for Iranians but for the entire world. He tells Radio Farda: 'From the perspective of the interests of the Iranian people, stability and security in the Middle East, and also from the viewpoint of the interests of Iranian immigrants in the U.S., Kamala Harris would be a much better choice. Trump is one of the supporters of Benjamin Netanyahu, who is truly setting the region on fire, and the hardline policy he wants to pursue regarding Iran, although his ultimate hope is to reach a negotiation with the Islamic Republic, lacks the necessary diplomatic expertise, and his associates are close to Netanyahu and he himself lacks the patience necessary for diplomacy, thus Trump's presence in the White House would be catastrophic.' Both groups supporting Donald Trump and Kamala Harris argue that the presence of their preferred candidate could lead to a better fate for Iranians, but there is no credible research showing which candidate ultimately has more support among Iranians living in the U.S. Arash Azizi points out that there are no credible polls on this issue, stating: 'It seems that Iranians, given that they are a very diverse community, cast their votes for both parties and, like many immigrant communities, vote for the Democrats, while there are also those who have turned to Trump and demand the hardline stance this candidate has taken regarding Iran, and for this reason, many inside Iran share such views. Therefore, I don't think we can definitively say that one candidate has more votes than the other among Iranians.' However, Ms. Behrouz believes that before entering politics, she thought most Iranians supported the Democrats, while she believes that 'media propaganda' has caused many of them to fear expressing their support for Donald Trump. The Persian-speaking spokesperson for 'Iranians for Donald Trump' tells Radio Farda: 'Previously, my observation and impression was that Iranians were more supportive of the Democrats, but after the campaign for Iranian support for Trump began, I realized how much support for him and nationalist and right-wing policies is increasing among Iranians. Trump supporters are much less inclined to publicly express their political stance and fear doing so. Unfortunately, support for Trump on social media can place you in a position in this country where you are treated like an opposition to the system. Moreover, Iranians are concerned that due to the censorial culture in the U.S., they might lose their jobs here for supporting Trump. Additionally, many Iranians travel to Iran and are worried about facing problems inside the country for supporting Trump.' In recent months, many Iranians have expressed their support for Donald Trump on social media, especially among groups seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic. However, Trump himself emphasizes that he has no plan for this and that the U.S. does not have such capability. Nasim Behrouz also points out that the U.S. is grappling with many challenges, adding that even Americans are not interested in their leaders intervening in other countries' affairs. She continues: 'We need to have a realistic view of this issue; the U.S. today faces numerous challenges and problems. If Trump returns to the White House, his priority will be the American people and the issues this country faces. This is what we support as well, and we do not want any foreign country to interfere in our affairs, nor do we want any politician to carry out an overthrow for us.' This right-wing political activist further explains her compatriots' requests from Trump and other right-wing politicians: 'What we want is for the Iranian people to be considered the main rulers and to be addressed in their discussions, rather than negotiating with the officials of the Islamic Republic. Our goal as Iranian citizens living in the U.S. is to try to reduce the cost of the struggle for the people inside the country.' Contrary to Ms. Behrouz's view, Mr. Azizi holds a different perspective, believing that whether Trump or Harris wins, there will ultimately be no choice but to negotiate with the Iranian government. He states: 'Both candidates will have to move towards negotiation and reconciliation with Iran to resolve regional issues, but given the obstacles such as war in the region and tensions between Iran and Israel, a very tense road lies ahead. However, both ultimately seek a deal with Iran.' Mr. Azizi sees the difference between Trump and Harris in the teams of these two candidates, stating: 'Ms. Harris has an excellent foreign policy team to advance this matter, and she herself can be a professional president who does not have a specific ideological viewpoint. I have compared her to George H.W. Bush, who makes decisions based on the advice of those around him. In contrast, we have someone like Trump who lacks the patience and attention necessary to bring negotiations to fruition, and although he is not necessarily a warmonger, his associates are very close to Netanyahu and right-wing movements in Israel, and their principles are eternal support for Israel and Netanyahu's right-wing government and strong opposition to Iran. The combination of these can lead to the implementation of tension-inducing policies.' Regardless of the differing views of experts, public opinion, and specialists on U.S. issues, the presence of either of these two candidates in power could have significant impacts on the future of Iranians and the interactions between the Islamic Republic and Western countries. Tuesday, November 7, is the final day of the presidential election in the U.S., and after months of campaigning and electoral activity, it will finally be clear who will sit behind the desk in the Oval Office in January 2025 instead of Joe Biden.