What Do We Know About the Armed Islamist Rebels' Military Capabilities in Syria?

The advance of armed rebels in Syria and their successive capture of cities has once again placed the jihadist Islamist group "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" at the forefront of the news. This group, along with several other allied armed factions, launched a sudden military operation on December 7, quickly capturing the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo, and after seizing the city of Hama, advancing towards Homs. The armed rebels claim their goal is to capture Damascus, the capital of Syria, and overthrow the ruling regime. Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham is considered the most powerful armed opposition group in Syria, whose members previously followed the terrorist organization al-Qaeda. This group, formerly known as "al-Nusra," announced its separation from al-Qaeda in 2017. What we know about the details of the rebels' operations in Syria and the armed groups involved in these operations is that the U.S. officially designated "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" as a terrorist organization in 2018; the European Union, the UK, Turkey, and several other countries have also included this group in their terrorist lists. The British newspaper "Financial Times" reported on December 15 that "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which had been weakened in recent years due to fighting against government forces, now has a military academy, central command, and specialized units that can be deployed rapidly, including ground, artillery, armored, drone, sniper, and special operations units." According to this report, the militia group has managed to expand its capabilities over the past four or five years and has become an almost complete armed group by developing local weapon manufacturing capabilities, including drones and missiles. Before recent developments, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham was concentrated in the city of Idlib and its surrounding areas but occasionally conducted operations in other provinces such as Aleppo, Hama, and Daraa. Recently, social media accounts close to this group published images of drone operations targeting Syrian government positions in Aleppo and Hama. According to these accounts, most of the drones used by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham are "Shaheen" drones, known for flying at low altitudes and carrying explosives. Previously, opposition groups had not disclosed their possession of drones. However, in recent days, they announced for the first time that they possess drones, naming them "Shaheen Battalions." Armed opposition groups have recently released videos showing drone use to target tanks and military centers of the government; some of these drones are suicide drones, while others are larger with longer flight capabilities that drop bombs. These groups also use another type of drone that appears to be locally made in Syria. Fabian Hinz, a senior defense and military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Al-Hurra that "we still do not know whether they received foreign assistance in building these drones, but there seems to be a genuine effort to develop a local drone manufacturing industry." Other uses of drones in the ongoing war by the rebels include reconnaissance to track the locations of government forces and dropping leaflets in government-controlled areas to encourage government forces to defect. The use of drones by armed rebels poses a new threat to Syrian government forces, especially since the Syrian army lacks specific capabilities to counter drones. Armed rebels in the current military operations are using long-range missiles, guided missiles, and anti-tank mortars. The "Financial Times" and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights report that part of this missile system is locally made. According to the "Financial Times," Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham "recently unveiled a new guided missile system about which little information is available. However, experts say this massive missile can carry large amounts of explosives and is likely named Qaisar." Experts believe that the use of this missile has replaced the suicide car bombs that Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham used up to five years ago.