What Happened in Kirkuk?

One month after the Kurdistan Region of Iraq held an independence referendum, Iraqi forces and Kurdish Peshmerga clashed in Kirkuk. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi had previously stated that the Kurdistan independence referendum was illegal and called for its annulment. However, the Kurdistan Regional Government insists that the referendum is legal. The Security Council of the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq announced on Monday that Iraqi army forces and Iranian-backed Shiites have entered the city of Kirkuk. Hamdi Malek, a Middle East analyst in the UK, states that Iran's role and that of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force, have been very significant in the events that occurred, as Kirkuk and its surrounding areas are under the control of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, with some factions in this party being very close to Iran. Reports and military movements indicate that coordination has taken place with some factions of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Iraqi government, facilitated by Iran. Provez Rahim, a political science professor at Salahaddin University in Erbil, mentions that Iran had made considerable efforts to prevent the Kurdistan referendum from happening. He states that Qassem Soleimani pressured the political leaders of the region before the referendum to not hold it, and after the referendum to create a movement within the Kurdistan Region with one of the parties close to Iran. He adds that the leadership of the Popular Mobilization Forces and pressure on Iraq has also involved bringing Turkey into this context. Today’s Iraq is completely under Iran's influence and the command of the Revolutionary Guards and the Quds Force. The Iraqi Prime Minister stated on Monday that the Kirkuk operation was necessary to protect the unity of the country. Al-Abadi believes that after the Kurdistan referendum, the integrity of this oil-rich country is at risk. Provez Rahim argues that the Kurdistan referendum was legal and democratic, and the best way is negotiation: 'I think that retreating from the referendum would be a form of political suicide for any party or political movement. The most rational way is dialogue between the parties in a long-term process to form a reconciliatory and peaceful separation, thus preventing slaughter and the Syrianization of Iraq.' But what does the Iraqi government want? Hamdi Malek responds: 'It seems that the main goal of the central government is to deprive Mr. Barzani and his party, as well as those who seek Kurdistan's independence, of this important source of income so they cannot build an economy independent of Baghdad. The areas in and around Kirkuk are disputed, and there are Turkmen and other groups like Christians present there, and it seems that the Iraqi government wants to take control of these areas to respond to the demands of the non-Kurdish people in the region, as they have long called for military presence in this area. It seems that there is now an internal conflict among various Kurdish parties. This conflict existed, but it has deepened with this move.' Provez Rahim reiterates that retreating from the referendum would be political suicide for any party or political movement. Iran, Turkey, and the central Iraqi government oppose the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan. The US-backed coalition against the Islamic State or ISIS states that it is closely monitoring the situation and has asked both sides to refrain from provocative actions. The US has supported a unified Iraq and described the clashes in Kirkuk as misunderstandings, stating it will support the control of disputed areas. Kirkuk is an oil-rich province, and both the Kurds and the Iraqi government seek control over it. Kirkuk has a Kurdish majority, but a large population of Arabs and Turkmen live in its center. Provez Rahim points out that Kirkuk is geographically significant, and by controlling it, the Kurds will be one step closer to independence: 'The Kurds have a historical claim to this area, and many of the Kurdish uprisings in modern history failed because there was no agreement on Kirkuk. Today, considering its geographical position and rich oil and gas resources, especially Iran knows well that the Kurds can advance the independence process by controlling Kirkuk.' However, could the conflict between the Iraqi army and the Kurds in Kirkuk be the beginning of new and more serious conflicts in the country? Provez Rahim warns that if the clashes continue, the fire will spread in the region: 'I believe that if the clashes continue in this manner, and the doors to dialogue are closed, the Kurds will not remain idle. Today, more than 1,050 kilometers are under Kurdish control or the Kurdish front, and there are even deep and bloody conflicts between Sunni and Shiite Arabs, especially in the post-ISIS era. The Shiites themselves have deep divisions, and on the other hand, we have external factors and regional and trans-regional powers involved here. All these geopolitical and geostrategic equations are intertwined with the internal equations of Iraq, and I believe that it will disrupt the balance of power.' The US has called on all parties in the region to focus on the common threat, namely ISIS, and to avoid escalating tensions among Iraqis. Both the Iraqi army and Kurdish forces have been trained and armed under US supervision. In this context, Iraqi forces have taken control of Kirkuk. Trump stated that in the dispute between Iraq and the Kurds, the US does not side with either. Khamenei's advisor denied the role and presence of the IRGC in the Kirkuk operation. Kurdish Peshmerga forces retreated from the cities of Sinjar and Khanqin. The situation in Iran is also tense, with protests and calls for political change.