What Impact Has One Year of War in Gaza Had on Netanyahu's Position and Israeli Society and Economy?

Israel has undergone significant turmoil in various fields during the one-year war in Gaza and the subsequent intensification of military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, marking the longest military crisis in the 76-year history of the country. The year-long war with Hamas and the escalation of conflicts with Hezbollah have severely affected Israeli society and important institutions. Despite criticisms of war management and concerns about the fate of hostages, Netanyahu remains the most powerful political figure in Israel, with polls indicating sustained public support for him, despite the intelligence failure during Hamas's attack on October 7. The U.S. and the European Union classify Hamas as a terrorist organization, while Hezbollah is viewed as both a militia and a political party; the U.S. considers it a terrorist organization, but the EU has only blacklisted its military wing. This report outlines the effects of one year of war in Gaza on Israeli society, economy, and the political landscape, which has recently also seen ground operations in Lebanon. The human costs and destruction of the Gaza war are highlighted through statistics. The Israeli army's control over the Gaza Strip has relatively achieved two out of three government objectives: eliminating the infrastructure and military capabilities of the extremist group Hamas and removing threats from Gaza to the lives of Israelis, especially residents of southern cities near the besieged strip. However, the third goal, which is to return Israeli citizens kidnapped by Hamas, remains a significant issue for the government and society. The Israeli Prime Minister emphasizes the continuation of the war in Gaza, stating that the area must remain under military control so that the army and security agencies can easily enter Gaza whenever deemed necessary, similar to operations regularly conducted in various parts of the West Bank. No country has yet expressed readiness to take administrative responsibility for Gaza, and U.S. proposals to form a coalition of countries and the United Nations to manage Gaza have not been seriously discussed during the half-hearted negotiations throughout the war months. The deepest collective sentiments of society in the past year have manifested in events related to the fate of hostages: the great joy of the release of six hostages in a commando operation or the profound sorrow over the deaths of six other hostages in tunnels or the deadly 'mistaken' fire from Israeli forces on three hostages who had saved themselves. The majority of Israeli society insists that until the hostages return from Gaza to their families, Israel will never again be the same country it was before the Hamas attack, and the long-standing covenant between the government and the people, which emphasized the protection of their lives under all circumstances, has been broken. The fourth goal of the ongoing war was officially added on September 18 of this year: 'to safely return' tens of thousands of Israelis who left their homes on orders from the army and government or voluntarily out of fear of attacks from Hezbollah and have been residing in hotels in various Israeli cities for a year, complaining about the lack of prospects for returning to their previous lives. The addition of this fourth goal significantly changed the course of events in the past year, and as the country's defense minister stated in the weeks leading up to the end of the first year of war, the 'center of gravity' shifted from the south to the north. Vast areas of northern Israel, which were lush and popular tourist attractions before the war, have now turned into 'ghost towns'; places where 50 Israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed near the border, and in cities like Metula, one out of every two evacuated homes is now destroyed. Some business owners in the north, having received compensation from the government, have started new ventures in other cities; however, this has not been easily achievable for other traders and merchants. Hotels and families in the north that used to make a living by renting their summer rooms to tourists now face uncertainty about their financial future, despite receiving compensation from the treasury, and the stipends received by evacuees do not cover their living expenses in cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Many residents from the north have emphasized over the past year that with Hezbollah forces on the other side of the border, they no longer feel secure and are searching for another place in central Israel or even in foreign countries to live with their children. The economic blow following the reduction of significant tourism revenue sources in Israel during the year of war has been the most severe. While Israel has numerous historical and religious attractions, making it a major tourist hub in the region and the world, with tens of thousands of Jews from other countries spending time in Israel for religious holidays and events each year, nearly all hotels in Israel are now housing war refugees. Travel warnings from governments around the world due to the security situation have deterred tourists from visiting Israel, and universities worldwide have also halted student trips and exchanges with Israeli universities. In the past month, as the crisis between Israel and Hezbollah intensified, dozens of airlines that had recently resumed some flights to Israel renewed their policies to halt flights. Startups in the field of new technologies, another significant source of tax revenue for Israel, have begun relocating their offices to other countries due to the war, and their investment attraction has decreased. A construction recession across the country, following the daily entry ban of tens of thousands of Palestinian workers from the West Bank and Gaza, has driven up housing prices. Economic and housing ministers have traveled multiple times to countries in East Asia or Eastern Europe over the past year to negotiate contracts with these governments to bring workers to assist in construction and agriculture in Israel. Their success has been relative, and the intensified crisis with Hezbollah has even forced a country like China to call back thousands of its dispatched workers to Israel. The $14 billion U.S. aid to Israel, expressing solidarity with its ally, is primarily spent on arms and ammunition purchases, while according to the Bank of Israel, the war has so far cost $600 million weekly, reduced the gross national product by 8%, and there is a risk of this figure reaching 10%. In contrast, Bezalel Smotrich, Israel's finance minister, believes the country has sufficient capacity for rapid reconstruction after the war, will attract foreign investors again, and that global credit rating agencies will change their ratings in favor of Israel. One year after October 7, has Hamas been destroyed? The war has significantly reduced the deep divisions that existed in Israeli society a year prior and strengthened social unity. According to research from the Pew Research Center, a Washington-based think tank, during the war, internal conflicts between supporters of the left and right in Israel decreased by 32% compared to the year before the Gaza war began. Many political opponents of the government who participated in 'anti-judicial coup' protests fought alongside government supporters and right-wingers on the battlefield. The war has also weakened the position of peace supporters with the Palestinians more than ever. According to Pew Research Center studies, in the eighth month of the war, only 26% of Israeli Jews still thought there might be a way to live peacefully alongside Palestinians and establish a Palestinian state. This figure was 35% in the year before the war. The war has also strengthened the position of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Some Israelis now more readily accept the arguments of the leaders and residents of these settlements that if such settlements did not exist, Palestinian militants in the West Bank would repeat their attacks on central Israeli cities, similar to the surprise assault by the extremist group Hamas on the people of southern Israel. Netanyahu's position has been strengthened despite turmoil in the power structure. The embarrassment resulting from the failure to timely detect Hamas's planning for the October 7 attack on Israel has unsettled the military and security apparatus. The Chief of Staff, the head of the military intelligence organization, and the head of the internal security agency expressed their readiness to resign from their positions at the end of the war or any stage of it, accepting responsibility for the intelligence failure. These agencies attempted to compensate for this failure during the war, including through precise targeted attacks against Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, showcasing their high capabilities, especially in recent strikes against Hezbollah. Despite criticisms and dissatisfaction from parts of society towards the ruling government and the anger of some hostage families, as well as the relentless efforts of opposition leaders to topple the government, polls in the days leading up to the anniversary of the war indicated that the ruling Likud party remains the top winner in any potential election, and the majority gave Netanyahu a higher score compared to Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid when asked which politician they deemed worthy of leadership. Netanyahu has convinced part of society that the army's and intelligence agencies' successes, particularly in dealing with Hezbollah in the final days of the first year of war, were the result of his orders to these agencies. It seems that based on this support, Benjamin Netanyahu has so far refrained from the demands of various actors in Israel to establish a national commission of inquiry into the reasons that allowed Hamas to carry out its attack on Israel, insisting instead on forming an investigative committee led by several judges from the Israeli Supreme Court. A committee that is not national will not have the authority to make recommendations regarding his responsibility.