What Impact Will the Ceasefire in Gaza Have on the Iran-Israel Confrontation?

The axis that the Islamic Republic of Iran had formed using its allied governments and proxy groups under the title of "Resistance Axis" has suffered heavy blows in recent months, especially since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip on October 6 of last year. The Islamic Republic of Iran has cited its support for proxy groups as an effort to counter "Israeli policies"; a country it considers an "occupier" and a "threat to its security." However, now, with recent developments, the shape and structure of the network of these allied forces of the Islamic Republic has also changed. Ehud Yaari, a fellow at the Washington Institute and former editor of the Israeli newspaper Jerusalem Post residing in Tel Aviv, tells Radio Farda about the current situation of Iran's proxy groups: "I believe Iran has largely lost its proxy network. Hezbollah has been significantly weakened, Iranian-backed Iraqi Shiite groups have decided to retreat, and Hamas and Islamic Jihad have suffered severe blows in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, the chaos that the Islamic Revolution of Iran tried to ignite around Israel has dissipated." In this situation, according to Ali Mohtadi, a Middle East expert residing in London, only one proxy group remains for the Islamic Republic, which is the "Houthis in Yemen," and "it seems very unlikely that Iran can establish its former hegemony in the region relying solely on one group." Major internal and global changes favoring Donald Trump's administration. The Gaza war began after the extremist group Hamas, which is on the US and European terrorist lists, unexpectedly targeted Israeli cities and settlements; an attack in which about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed and over 250 taken hostage. Following this event, Israel launched a military operation with the declared aim of "destroying Hamas" in the Gaza Strip, resulting in at least 46,000 deaths, mostly civilians, and over two million displaced, turning the Gaza Strip into a ruin. This war expanded at times; sporadic missile, rocket, and drone fire by Hezbollah in Lebanon also led to the initiation of Israeli military operations in Lebanon. In this war, many of Hezbollah's infrastructures in Lebanon were destroyed. The group also lost many of its commanders and leaders, including its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Simultaneously, Hamas also lost many commanders, including its senior leaders. From Sunday, January 20, after lengthy negotiations mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was implemented. But what impact will this agreement have on Israel's policies towards Iran? Ali Mohtadi believes that given the gradual change in Israel's strategic objectives in recent months, which shifted the focus of its operations according to circumstances, it can now concentrate more on countering what it calls the Iranian threat. Mr. Mohtadi tells Radio Farda: "Many Israeli analysts have emphasized in their interviews and notes in recent months that the Israeli government is determined to use Iran's regional weakness to eliminate or irreversibly weaken the threat it perceives from the Islamic Republic once and for all." However, Ehud Yaari, who is also a Middle East analyst, believes that Israel prefers global pressure on Iran, as it believes Iran has the capability to rebuild its nuclear facilities if they come under attack. Mr. Yaari tells Radio Farda: "I think whatever the comments in Israel may be, Israel prefers that the United States and the European Troika reach a better and more robust agreement than the 2015 JCPOA with the Iranian government." The JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is the nuclear agreement between Iran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany, but Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from this agreement during his first term, arguing that it was a "weak" agreement and could not control Iran's nuclear activities. The second Trump administration; Iran's options are "worse" than 4 or 8 years ago. What are the options for the Islamic Republic? Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, has emphasized in his recent speeches that what he calls resistance has not been defeated. He also promises final victory. This is while Donald Trump has once again returned to the presidency of the United States; a figure who pursued a maximum pressure policy against Iran during his previous presidency. Mr. Trump also told several families of American-Israeli hostages on his inauguration day that the "disaster" that occurred for Israel in the attack by the extremist group Hamas and the hostage-taking of its citizens was the result of the "financial support" of the Islamic Republic of Iran for Tehran's proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and the resumption of oil revenue for Iran in deals with countries. Ehud Yaari emphasizes that the Islamic Republic currently has no money to continue compensating for the costs it incurred in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza in previous years. Mr. Yaari says that therefore "there is now a significant debate in Tehran about whether to revise its regional policies or continue the previous policy. There are indications that the Iranians will seek an agreement with President Trump, which of course is not simple and readily available." During Mr. Trump's previous presidency, several Arab countries in the region, led by the UAE and Bahrain, reached normalization agreements with Israel through US mediation. Ali Mohtadi, referring to the possibility of such relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and increasing pressure on Tehran, says that currently it seems unlikely that the policies of the Islamic Republic will witness a fundamental change. He says: "At least under the leadership of Mr. Khamenei, it seems unlikely that a 180-degree shift will occur in the foreign and regional policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran."