What Impact Will the U.S. Elections Have on Europe?

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, how do European leaders view the two candidates? What concerns do European countries have about the potential impacts of the U.S. election results on current issues in Europe, including the war in Ukraine and their military alliance with the U.S., NATO? Historically, Europe has supported the Democrats, but as one of the candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, prepares to enter the White House, European officials have begun to reflect on how the foreign policy of the next occupant of the White House might affect issues and security on the European continent. Looking at contemporary history, Western European leaders have generally favored the U.S. Democrats, but similar sentiments are emerging in Eastern Europe, where the crisis of the Ukraine war is more tangible. However, some far-right party leaders see Trump as a kind of standard-bearer, as they share views on issues ranging from immigration and abortion to national identity. Regardless, despite differing opinions in Europe regarding the U.S. elections, leaders of major European powers are concerned about the potential impacts of the U.S. elections on their continent. In this context, Alexander Schallenberg, Austria's foreign minister, remarked a few days before the election to prevent a sense of insecurity in Europe, saying, "A short sentence said on a farm in southern Idaho terrifies everyone from Porto to Helsinki." Alexander Stubb, the President of Finland, also told Reuters, "We are all waiting for the elections to end due to their international implications." When it comes to Ukraine and European security, many European officials express concern about the possibility of Trump's victory, given the tumultuous relations across the Atlantic during his presidency, his sharp criticism of NATO, and his shaky views on Kyiv's fight against the Russian invasion. They argue that any ending of the Ukraine war that Vladimir Putin considers a victory could embolden the Russian president to attack a NATO member country. One of the heads of Germany's intelligence agencies recently warned that Russia could be in a position to do so by the end of this decade. Putin himself has denied any intention to attack a NATO member country. In recent weeks, Reuters spoke with over 20 senior European officials about the impact of the U.S. election results on the Ukraine war. Since the U.S. is a vital ally for Europe, many of these officials spoke anonymously. Reuters noted that a common theme in their comments was the uncertainty stemming from what they described as Trump's unpredictability during his first term. European officials have implemented measures in cooperation with the Biden administration and say they hope that if Trump comes to power in January, these measures will somewhat mitigate the impact of a rapid cut in U.S. aid to Kyiv, including a $50 billion loan to Ukraine and a reset of military assistance. The main action that Europeans hope will keep Ukraine safe from any sudden change in U.S. policy is the G7's $50 billion loan using profits from frozen Russian assets. This loan, which has recently been agreed upon in detail, is expected to allow Kyiv to continue purchasing weapons even if U.S. assistance is cut off. One Western official stated, "The G7's $50 billion for Ukraine is really important, and I think Ukraine is well prepared for 2025." Meanwhile, NATO is establishing a command to coordinate military assistance to Ukraine, taking on much of the work of a temporary coalition led by the U.S. European officials say placing these efforts under NATO's military structure protects them from sudden political changes, but given that the U.S. is NATO's dominant power, it is not immune to shocks. With these measures, this will only be a temporary reprieve for Kyiv. Trump and Harris separately met with Zelensky during his visit to the U.S. in September. The Ukrainian president has not publicly endorsed either candidate, but after these meetings, he stated, "America has a direct understanding of Ukraine," and the war "must be stopped on fair terms so that no aggressor ever does what Russia is doing." Harris, the Democratic candidate and current vice president, is expected to continue supporting Ukraine and prevent escalation if she wins the election. She has strongly criticized Putin and stated that if she wins the election, she will work for Kyiv's victory in the war and achieving a fair peace, although she has not provided a specific strategy for Ukraine. In contrast, Trump has claimed that if he wins the election, he could end the war in one day, even before taking office. He has also criticized the level of U.S. aid to Ukraine and has repeatedly called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky "the biggest seller on earth." Last month, Trump accused Zelensky of helping to start the war. Caroline Levitt, a spokesperson for Trump's campaign, told Reuters, "When Trump was president, NATO was strong, there was no war in Ukraine, and the Middle East was stable." She stated that Trump "will restore global peace through American power and ensure that European countries carry their weight by paying their fair share in our mutual defense to reduce the unfair burden on American taxpayers." The tight electoral competition in the U.S. comes at a difficult time for Kyiv and its European supporters. Russian forces are advancing in eastern Ukraine, and after extensive Russian attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine, a harsh winter is on the way. Internal political problems in Europe are also pressuring leaders, especially Olaf Scholz, Germany's chancellor, and Emmanuel Macron, France's president. Public funding across the continent is facing challenges. Populist parties in Europe that are close to Russia have achieved electoral successes in recent months in the parliaments of Germany and even the European Parliament. A senior European diplomat told Reuters, "The longer this war drags on, the harder you have to work to support it, as voices are growing that say, 'Why are we prolonging this conflict? This is a big meat grinder.'" However, in public comments, European officials aim to influence Trump and his supporters by stating that a Putin victory in Ukraine would weaken the U.S. and embolden Russia and China to challenge American power. NATO's Secretary-General stated that Trump knows that the war is not just about Ukraine, but also about the future security of the United States. Mark Rutte, NATO's Secretary-General, stated last month that Trump knows that the war "is not just about Ukraine, but also about the future security of the United States." Not all European leaders are worried about Trump's resurgence. Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister and a Trump ally, opposes military aid to Ukraine and has openly stated that he believes Trump agrees with him. However, a group of Ukrainian and Eastern European officials have also speculated that if Putin rejects any agreement Trump proposes, Trump might cross red lines previously set by Biden by providing more long-range weapons and ending the ban on attacks deep into Russia.