What is the allowed amount of oil purchases for customers exempt from Iran sanctions?

On November 5, the U.S. exempted eight Iranian oil customers from sanctions and announced that since the Trump administration's withdrawal from the JCPOA in May of this year, Iran's daily oil exports have decreased by one million barrels. These customers are currently allowed to purchase limited oil from Iran for another six months until the U.S. decides on their sanction exemptions again. These countries have already reduced their oil purchases from Iran, and to obtain exemptions again, they must further decrease their oil purchases. The U.S. aims to ultimately reduce Iran's oil exports to zero. However, how much oil each of these eight customers, including China, India, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey, Greece, and Italy, who previously received 75% of Iran's oil exports, are allowed to buy from Iran remains unspecified by the U.S. In the previous round of sanctions, Iranian customers had to reduce their purchases by 20% every six months, but recently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stated that these countries must reduce their imports from Iran 'more' than in the previous sanctions round. According to a Reuters report published on November 7, analysts have stated that Iran's oil exports in the next six months could range from approximately 700,000 to 1.7 million barrels per day. Mike Pompeo stated that over one million barrels have been reduced from Iran's oil exports. The consulting firm Wood Mackenzie has also predicted that Iran's exports will be around 1.25 million barrels. A month before the U.S. exited the JCPOA, Iran had daily oil and gas condensate exports of 2.8 million barrels. JP Morgan has indicated that tanker insurance issues could further reduce Iran's oil exports. Additionally, Iranian customers will be required to deposit oil payments into accounts within their own countries, and Iran can only use these funds for 'permissible' imports, meaning Iran will not receive direct cash. According to the current exemption for the next six months, China is allowed to purchase 360,000 barrels of oil daily, which is half of last year's average imports. A Chinese source has indicated that in the next exemption phase, the country may only be allowed to import 220,000 barrels daily. The energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie has also predicted that Iran's oil sales to China in the next six months will be 360,000 barrels. Several sources have told Reuters that Indian refineries plan to buy 300,000 barrels of oil from Iran daily, down from 450,000 barrels last year, which aligns with Wood Mackenzie's forecast. China and India are the largest buyers of Iranian oil, having purchased half of Iran's oil exports in the first half of this year. South Korea, which halted oil purchases from Iran in July, will be allowed to import 130,000 barrels daily, one-third of last year's purchases from the Islamic Republic. Japan, which also stopped buying oil from Iran last month, has not yet determined how much oil it will buy, and Reuters reports that Japanese buyers have not made a decision yet. However, Wood Mackenzie has predicted that Japan and South Korea will each be allowed to import 130,000 barrels of Iranian oil daily. Regarding Taiwan, which occasionally buys oil shipments from Iran, Reuters did not publish a specific figure, but Wood Mackenzie has predicted that the country will be allowed to buy only 20,000 barrels daily. Turkey and Italy had each bought 200,000 barrels of oil from Iran daily over the past two years, while Greece was a customer for 100,000 barrels. Greece and Italy have halted their oil purchases from Iran in recent weeks, and it is unclear how much they will buy in the next six months. However, Turkey, despite receiving an exemption, has stated that it will not comply with U.S. sanctions. Nevertheless, Wood Mackenzie has predicted that Turkey and Italy will each buy 130,000 barrels and Greece will purchase 50,000 to 60,000 barrels of Iranian oil. The energy consulting firm states that for the next six months, Iran will likely only be able to export one million barrels of crude oil and 250,000 barrels of gas condensate daily.