What is the Nature of the Recent Protests in Iran?

Radio Farda has discussed the implications of the recent protests with Saeed Barzin, a sociologist and political analyst in London, starting with the quality of controlling the gatherings so far. Saeed Barzin: "The government's security policy has, in my opinion, two aspects: on one hand, there is local tolerance and control, and on the other hand, there is severe and ruthless repression if necessary. It seems that so far, security forces have not resorted to extreme violence. In fact, they have even allowed protests, especially in smaller and more scattered gatherings in rural areas. However, in larger cities, particularly Tehran, there is naturally more sensitivity, and here the display of security forces has been greater, with more street control, more severe media and propaganda responses. Remember that we have a history of street protests during Rouhani's presidency, including labor and professional protests. If it continues at this level, I believe it will not create a fundamental problem for the government; [the government] will endure it. But if it escalates significantly, I think security forces will undoubtedly suppress it severely and ruthlessly. The government's position and that of reformists differ from the position of conservative critics of the government and those opposing Rouhani from within. The reaction of conservatives and hardliners has been different from that of reformists. In the reformist camp and among Rouhani's supporters, there is a clear dissatisfaction with these matters, and they believe that the management and key to these movements are in the hands of hardline conservatives. If you listen to various individuals, such as Mr. Abtahi, Khatami's deputy, Mr. Ishaq Jahangiri, and Ms. Masoumeh Ebtekar, who is Rouhani's deputy, they all say to be cautious and see who is pulling the strings. However, in the conservative camp, there is a relatively soft approach to these street gatherings. A softer rhetoric is used, at least in the first few days; the words and language used are very gentle. Conservatives say these gatherings are professional and that people are dissatisfied with government policies and have economic grievances. Thus, the response of the two political camps within Iran has been completely different. However, the IRGC has referred to those leading the protests as 'revolutionary pretenders.' I believe that as these movements intensify and get out of control, there must be a kind of fear within the conservative camp, and they must be dissatisfied with those who initiated, managed, and advanced this movement. In my opinion, this fragmentation of the conservative camp's agenda will intensify if these movements continue. What is the nature of the protests from a political sociological perspective? I think public opinion and these street movements are not unified. We cannot say that the government stands against the nation here because the same conservatives in power have a social base. The same reformists in power also have a social base. Forces calling for fundamental changes in Iran also have a social base. It seems that the protests were apparently initiated by conservatives in Khorasan, in Mashhad, and had a professional aspect, chanting against Rouhani. But the developments quickly got out of their control, with various forces joining [the movement] and taking on a disruptive nature. So it can be said that the motivations have been diverse. They have come from conservatives, dissatisfied individuals, overthrow activists, floating forces, and adventurous individuals, and it has turned into a spontaneous street movement, creating different opportunities and threats for various parties. Some of the slogans have been pro-monarchist, while others have targeted the entire government. Under what circumstances can the opposition supporting regime change abroad successfully lead these street protests in Iranian cities? This is a good question. I think this is a great opportunity for forces operating outside the internal factional divisions of the regime, namely conservatives and reformists. The important point is whether these forces can use this opportunity to create a cohesive and reliable political base, or whether these developments will lead to an unmanageable and uncontrollable chaos that will cause them to miss this opportunity. Will they proceed with maximalist demands, namely the overthrow of the regime, or will they engage in a kind of political game and bargaining with internal factions to expand the red lines and boundaries of the political sphere within the country and become a serious force in the daily equations inside Iran? 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