What is the Process for Selecting Iran's Next President and Who are the Candidates?

The death of Ebrahim Raisi during his presidential term has initiated the process for early presidential elections in Iran. This is not the first time the Iranian political system has faced such a situation since the 1979 revolution. Previously, the death of Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989 and the election of the then-president to the leadership position caused Ali Khamenei's second presidential term to be shortened by two months. Khamenei resigned from the presidency immediately after the election of the new president in August of that year. However, from the time of Khomeini's death until the presidential elections, no interim president was appointed, and Khamenei served simultaneously as both president and interim leader. Additionally, in 1981, the ousting of Abolhassan Banisadr and the subsequent assassination of Mohammad Ali Rajai prevented these two presidents from completing their terms. What is the current situation in Iran? The death of Ebrahim Raisi has occurred at a time when there are increasing protests within Iran over a series of political, social, and economic crises. Politically, the Islamic Republic recently held elections with very low public participation, indicating the majority of Iranians' distrust in the ballot boxes. Economically, rising prices and inflation have made daily life difficult for Iranians. Islamic Republic officials are facing international pressures due to Tehran's controversial nuclear program and deepening military ties with Russia amid the Ukraine war. Furthermore, in the military arena, the Gaza war has heightened tensions between the Islamic Republic and Israel. Who has become the interim president? According to Article 131 of the Islamic Republic's Constitution, 'In the event of the death, dismissal, resignation, absence, or illness of the president for more than two months, or in cases where the presidential term has ended and a new president has not yet been elected due to obstacles or similar matters, the first vice president, with the approval of the leader, assumes the powers and responsibilities of the president.' Now, Mohammad Mokhber, the first vice president of Iran, has been tasked with a new mission by Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic. Khamenei wrote in a message on Tuesday that Mokhber will manage the executive branch according to Article 131 of the Constitution. Thus, he has agreed to Mokhber's interim presidency. Who is Mohammad Mokhber, the interim successor to Ebrahim Raisi? The spokesman for the Guardian Council stated that from the very day this event occurred, 'the necessary matters were communicated to the first vice president, and the affairs are being managed by him.' While Khamenei had not yet confirmed Mokhber's succession on that Sunday, he emphasized: 'This process began yesterday.' According to Article 131 of the Islamic Republic's Constitution, after the first vice president assumes the powers and responsibilities of the deceased Ebrahim Raisi, 'a council consisting of the Speaker of the Parliament, the Head of the Judiciary, and the first vice president is obliged to arrange for a new president to be elected within a maximum of fifty days.' Hadi Tahan Nazif, the spokesman for the Guardian Council, also emphasized on Tuesday that this law will be implemented. He stated: 'There is no disruption due to a lack of law, and the process will proceed according to the law.' Nazif referred to Khamenei's remarks the day before when the body of Raisi had not yet been found, stating: 'The people of Iran should not worry; there will be no disruption in the country's affairs.' Mohammad Saleh Jokar, the head of the Internal Affairs and Councils Commission, told the Borna news agency: 'Considering that one year remains of the eleventh government's term, the question has arisen as to whether the president who is elected will serve a one-year term or a four-year term.' He added: 'In this regard, the law is not silent, and the president will be elected for a four-year term.' The issue of public participation in the upcoming presidential elections in Iran is a fundamental topic, as previous election experiences have shown that people currently have little desire to participate in elections. The death of Raisi provides an opportunity for the so-called 'principlists' and 'moderates' to introduce their candidates. Among the current members of the Islamic Republic's government, the likelihood of Mohammad Mokhber running is the highest, as he has 50 days to establish himself as the second person in the country. Mokhber rose through the ranks in the 1980s by working in the Foundation of the Oppressed and has the trust of the Supreme Leader. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the current Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, is another potential candidate. He has previously attempted several times to achieve this position by running for president but has failed each time for various reasons. Within the parliament, Qalibaf faces opponents from the principlist faction, and revelations against him may increase to prevent his candidacy in the presidential elections. Among the moderates, Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Javad Zarif could be potential candidates. However, recently the Guardian Council rejected Rouhani's qualifications for the Assembly of Experts elections, and Rouhani strongly protested this in a letter. Before Rouhani, the Guardian Council also rejected the qualifications of Ali Larijani, the former Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, in the previous presidential elections. After being disqualified, Larijani repeatedly asked the Guardian Council to publicly announce the reasons for his disqualification, but the council only informed him of the matters in a confidential letter, which was later leaked on social media. It is also expected that Zarif will face difficulties similar to those of Rouhani and Larijani with the Guardian Council. As in previous elections, it is anticipated that fringe candidates such as Mohsen Rezaei, the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, will also participate.