What is Zelensky's 'Victory Plan' and Does it Lead Anywhere?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, after lengthy negotiations with Western allies, finally presented his proposed 'Victory Plan' to the country's parliament and subsequently detailed it in the European Council and NATO. This plan includes five main points and three confidential appendices, which Kyiv's senior officials believe could shift the balance of power in the war with Russia in Ukraine's favor by next year if implemented. The presentation of this plan comes at a time when Russian forces have made slow but steady advances in recent months, Russian leaders show no willingness to end the war, and the continued support of Ukraine's Western allies faces increasing challenges. Meanwhile, Zelensky's 'Victory Plan' has not only been rejected by the Kremlin but has also not been warmly received by Kyiv's allies, with many experts expressing doubts about the feasibility of the proposed demands. Ukraine's immediate and unconditional invitation to NATO is presented as the first point of the 'Victory Plan.' According to senior Ukrainian officials, Russia attacked Ukraine expecting to quickly defeat its army, confident that NATO member countries would not get involved in the war. Zelensky stated that Ukraine understands that NATO membership is not possible today, but if Ukraine's future membership in NATO is announced now, 'Russia will realize it has lost the geopolitical war.' The Ukrainian president emphasized that the only requirement for fulfilling this Kyiv demand is the 'determination of allies.' Ukrainian officials have expressed hope that Ukraine will be announced as a future member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization even before the new U.S. president enters the White House. The U.S. and its key NATO allies have always emphasized their support for Ukraine's 'potential membership' in the alliance but have consistently refrained from making a definitive decision. According to the Associated Press, since the start of Russia's war against Ukraine, NATO has sought a way to avoid a direct invitation to Kyiv while increasing cooperation with Ukraine. This report indicates that raising this demand as a key point in Ukraine's victory puts NATO 'in a complex position.' Russia considers Ukraine's invitation to NATO a red line and cites preventing this development as one of the reasons for its 'special military operation.' The second point of the 'Victory Plan' aims to create a situation where 'Russian citizens understand what war is and, despite the Kremlin's political propaganda, direct their dissatisfaction towards their leaders.' According to Zelensky, this way 'the Kremlin also loses in the ideological and propaganda war.' Practical steps in this regard include expanding the Ukrainian army's military operations on Russian soil, strengthening Ukrainian positions in occupied Ukrainian territory, enhancing Ukraine's air defense, and involving neighboring NATO member countries in intercepting Russian missiles and drones, increasing investment in the production of various drones and missiles in Ukraine, and using them more frequently against targets in Russia, lifting the ban on using Western weapons on Russian soil, and providing satellite data and intelligence sharing between Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies. Zelensky stated that a list of targets in Russia that Ukraine believes should be destroyed 'to move closer to victory' has been provided to Ukraine's allies. As this point of the 'Victory Plan' became public, Washington reiterated that its previous position on prohibiting the use of its weapons against targets in Russia remains unchanged. Germany has also once again refused to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine. This section of the 'Victory Plan' contains a confidential appendix that, according to the Ukrainian president, has been provided to the leaders of the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, and Italy, and is also reaching officials from several other countries. Zelensky emphasized that 'Russia is only bold as long as it feels it will not face a crushing response.' Ukraine had the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world at the time of the Soviet Union's collapse but destroyed or transferred this arsenal and many of its other weapons to Russia under the 'Budapest Memorandum.' The U.S. and Russia (along with other nuclear powers) had provided security guarantees to Ukraine. However, when Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 and waged war in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine's Western allies stated that 'security guarantees' do not mean fighting against Russia. Although this section of the 'Victory Plan' is not explicitly detailed, experts believe Ukraine is proposing that NATO establish military bases on its territory. The production of long-range missiles with the help of Western countries that Ukraine could use against targets in Russia is among other potential scenarios mentioned. Within the framework of the 'Victory Plan,' Kyiv proposes that its allies invest in extracting valuable natural resources and reach agreements on joint defense of these vital resources. Metals such as uranium, titanium, lithium, and graphite are among these resources. This section of the 'Victory Plan' aligns with statements made by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who, during a visit to Ukraine last summer, expressed confidence that helping Kyiv defend 'natural resources worth $10-12 trillion' is beneficial for America, asserting that without Washington's assistance, 'these resources will fall into Putin's hands.' According to the Ukrainian president, this section also contains a confidential appendix that 'has been provided to some allies.' The addition of this section comes at a time when the city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine is effectively besieged by Russia, and since the largest coking coal mines in Ukraine are located around this city, losing it could jeopardize Ukraine's steel industry, which is its most important industry. Zelensky believes that Ukraine's experiences in confronting the Russian army could be valuable for ensuring Europe's security. For this reason, from the Ukrainian president's perspective, Ukrainian forces could be deployed in Europe instead of some U.S. forces and strengthen military interactions with NATO members. The presentation of this section is somewhat of a response to American Republicans and effectively reiterates a scenario previously proposed by J.D. Vance, a candidate for the U.S. vice presidency. Zelensky referred to Iran and North Korea as 'accomplices' of Russia in its attack on Ukraine. The Ukrainian president stated that implementing the 'Victory Plan' would create the groundwork for 'real diplomacy' and that Russia would accept a 'fair peace.' According to Zelensky, Russia will only be willing to accept diplomatic solutions when it 'ensures' that achieving its goals through military means is impossible. After presenting the 'Victory Plan' in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, most lawmakers stood and applauded the president. However, dissenting voices were also heard. For instance, Irina Gerashchenko from the opposition party 'European Solidarity' told reporters, 'All the statements are correct, but we need a plan that is executable. The biggest problem is that this plan does not tell us how we can win.' Many analysts and social media users in Ukraine believe that the 'practical steps' outlined in the confidential appendices are unlikely to include Kyiv's withdrawal from military efforts to reclaim occupied territories and effectively acceptance of a 'Korean scenario,' a position that is still rejected by most of Ukrainian society. The 'Korean scenario' refers to accepting the front line as a temporary border and Russian control over the occupied territories of Ukraine, which has been proposed in China's 'peace plan' and has so far been endorsed by many other countries, with even Russia deeming it unfeasible, especially as reports indicate that more than half of Russian citizens want an end to the war, and even among influential circles, seizing a significant portion of Ukrainian territory could be promoted as a victory for Russia in this war. Vitaly Portnikov, an analyst for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, points out that during the presentation of the 'Victory Plan,' Volodymyr Zelensky refrained from emphasizing 'the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity,' although he mentioned a 'peace formula' that considers 'restoring the borders of 1991.' Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko in Ukraine describes the 'Victory Plan' as 'containing Kyiv's demands from its allies with the aim of not losing the war' and believes that by presenting this plan, the Ukrainian president seeks to compel Ukraine's allies to defend the country more vigorously.