What Options Does Iran Have for Post-Assad Syria?

The Islamic Republic of Iran had the most regional influence in Syria until December 9, 2024, due to its close relationship with Bashar al-Assad's government. This relationship turned Syria into the main base for the Islamic Republic in the region, allowing it to support its other allies, primarily Hezbollah, militarily and logistically, and to advance its regional policies. Tehran paid hefty costs for this closeness; especially in the past 13 years, to maintain Assad's government against its opponents, it spent billions of dollars and sent numerous military advisors and tens of thousands of militia fighters from proxy groups under the title of 'Defenders of the Shrine' to Syria. However, this influence and presence ended on December 9 with the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government. Rami Abdulrahman, the director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, told Radio Farda that Iran no longer has a real presence in Syria: 'Even the Shiites whom Iran thought were a base for its activities, based on a survey conducted by the Observatory, including among Shiite clerics in several regions of Syria, it became clear that they believe Iran was the biggest lie they lived with for years. One senior cleric told the Observatory that Iran easily left us facing an uncertain future.' Eleven days after the advance of armed opponents of Bashar al-Assad from northwestern Syria, the regime ruling Damascus fell. The opponents faced no serious resistance in this path. Rami Abdulrahman believes that the destruction of infrastructure related to the Islamic Republic was not the result of the actions of Assad's opponents. He states: 'It was not the protesters who destroyed the infrastructure related to Iran in Syria. They do not have that capability. It is a lie to say that the Syrian revolution ended Iran's presence. If it were not for the extensive Israeli attacks and the behind-the-scenes decisions and agreements, Iran would not have left Syria. Iran had about 65,000 fighters in Syria. If it had decided to fight, the conflicts would have lasted months or even years before the opponents could reach Damascus.' Nevertheless, what happened is considered a defeat for the regional policies of the Islamic Republic; an event that also affected other regional developments. However, the Islamic Republic does not accept defeat. Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, recently stated in a speech: 'Some, due to a lack of understanding and proper analysis of issues, imagine and express that with the recent events in the region, the blood spilled in defense of the shrine has been wasted, and this perception and expression is a major mistake.' He also called the continued presence of those he termed 'aggressive occupiers' in Syria 'impossible' and claimed: 'Syria belongs to the Syrian people, and the aggressors on Syrian soil will undoubtedly one day be forced to retreat in the face of the power of the valiant Syrian youth.' Massoud al-Faq, a journalist and Middle East expert residing in the UAE, told Radio Farda: 'The Islamic Republic does not want to accept the field developments. The denial of realities leads the officials of the Islamic Republic towards an idealistic reading that has no correlation with realities and strategic developments and the changing positions of winners and losers.' He emphasizes: 'In the developments in Syria, the Islamic Republic is currently a loser. If it wants to interact with developments based on past slogans and an idealistic view, it will harm its interests in the region.' Since the fall of the previous regime in Syria, media and political analysts have tried to guess the future steps of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region. Among them, the question has always been raised about what actions Tehran will take; a question that has become more pronounced after Ali Khamenei's statements. Rami Abdulrahman considers Ali Khamenei's statements to be for internal consumption. He told Radio Farda: 'Iran cannot achieve anything in Syria. There is a saying that says: Before the rain, the sky gets cloudy. Khamenei's words have neither rain-bearing clouds nor rain. These words are to boost the morale of his supporters in Iran.' Massoud al-Faq also believes that the demographic composition of Syria does not allow Iran to take actions similar to those it took in Iraq. He states that 80% of Syria's population consists of Sunni Arabs. This population cannot create a base for Iran-supported groups. However, Mohammad Javad Akbarin, a political analyst residing in Paris, has a different view. He states that the Islamic Republic of Iran has the experience of Afghanistan ahead of it, saying: 'In the experience of Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic did not need to send forces. The Islamic Republic had a central goal in Afghanistan, which was to defeat the experience of American presence in that country.' Mr. Akbarin adds: 'To achieve this goal, the Islamic Republic hired forces in Afghanistan, paid them, and entered into long negotiations with groups like Hekmatyar, which resulted in making Afghanistan unsafe for the U.S., the new Kabul government, and exacerbating events of corruption that ultimately led to the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan.' In this situation, Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, has appointed Raouf Shibani as his special representative for Syrian affairs. Meanwhile, it seems that Tehran has not yet established contact with the new rulers of Syria. Mohammad Javad Akbarin believes that diplomatic relations are one of the ways for Iran to return to Syria, but the previous context does not exist. He believes: 'Now, considering the model of Saudi Arabia's presence in the reconstruction of Syria and the model of Ahmad al-Shara (the commander of the coalition that has taken power in Syria) with countries that do not want Iran's influence in Syria, it is unlikely that Iran will achieve results through diplomatic means.' Mr. Akbarin adds: 'Iran will certainly have an ambassador in Syria in the future and will definitely pursue diplomatic avenues, but I do not see any chance for Iran's success from this path to return to Syria.' Massoud al-Faq, however, believes that Iran has only one way to rebuild its relations, which is 'to accept realities and understand them and to try to create a way to establish new relations.' The current situation has become so difficult for Tehran that its regional policies are facing serious challenges, and on the other hand, it is unclear what position it will have in the new Syria for the foreseeable future.