What Was the 'Libya Model' for Agreement with the West and How Was It Implemented?

The 'Libya agreement with the West,' which took place 22 years ago, has once again become a hot topic on the eve of negotiations between Iran and the United States regarding the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. 'Libya has become a bad example and cannot convince other countries – Iran and North Korea – to follow its path,' said Muammar Gaddafi, the leader of Libya, in an interview with CNN in 2005, without knowing what fate awaited him. At that time, about two years had passed since his agreement with the United States and Britain, but because he had not benefited from the advantages of the agreement, he was severely dissatisfied with the West. However, shortly thereafter, the United States removed Libya from the list of state sponsors of terrorism and resumed diplomatic relations with the country. 22 years have passed since this agreement, but the fate of the 'Libya model' is still a hot topic in international circles. Now that Iran and the U.S. are on the verge of discussions for a potential agreement regarding Iran's nuclear program, some in Iran are warning against using this model for Iran, while a group of politicians is proposing it for an agreement with Tehran. Among them is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Mr. Netanyahu, who according to Israeli media reports was 'surprised' by the news of the planned meeting between Iranian and American officials on April 6, stated in a video message before leaving Washington that an agreement could only be made with Iran if it were 'similar to the Libya model.' Meanwhile, Abbas Araqchi, Iran's foreign minister, responded the day before to an American senator's remarks about preferring a Libya model agreement with Iran by saying: 'They can only dream.' What is the 'Libya model'? The United States and Britain had been negotiating with Libya for some time to limit the country's nuclear program and the production of weapons of mass destruction; a program that had begun in the 1970s and had many ups and downs. Libya signed the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) in 1975 and the Biological Weapons Convention in 1982, but was always suspected of attempting to produce these weapons. Accounts from Western diplomats about which country, Britain or the United States, initiated these negotiations are contradictory. However, these narratives do not change the outcome of the negotiations. Under Muammar Gaddafi's leadership, Libya accepted non-nuclear status, the surrender of chemical weapon stockpiles, and the limitation of its missile range to under 300 kilometers in 2003. As part of this agreement, Libya not only allowed American and British inspectors to enter its facilities but also accepted the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Since then, inspection activities at the facilities led by the International Atomic Energy Agency and American and British experts began, and a large portion of the equipment and documents related to Libya's nuclear program were transferred to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. The removal of nuclear materials and produced chemical weapons continued for years, with the final stage completed after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi. And, contrary to what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims, no facilities were 'exploded' in this process. Donald Malley, a U.S. State Department official at the Oak Ridge facility, explains to reporters about Libya's nuclear equipment. Why did Libya accept this model? At the time of announcing the agreement with Libya in 2003, some American and British officials who spoke with reporters mentioned the 'closeness' of the country's nuclear program to producing a nuclear weapon. However, in the following years and after examining various aspects of this program, some analysts concluded that Libya's distance from a bomb was much greater than previously thought. Malfred Braut-Hegghammer, a Norwegian researcher in the field of non-proliferation who has written a book on this subject, stated in a speech at the Woodrow Wilson Center in 2017 that even Libyan officials, including Saif al-Islam, the son of Muammar Gaddafi, had a similar perception to Western officials and believed they were about five years away from acquiring a nuclear bomb. In addition to the issue of Libya's distance from a nuclear bomb, two other motivations for this country to accept the agreement are mentioned: the pressure of extensive sanctions that had paralyzed the Libyan economy and the U.S. military invasion of Iraq a few months before the agreement was reached. However, analysts do not agree on the extent of the impact of these two factors. The Libyan government at the time of announcing the agreement stated that it accepted the agreement of its 'own free will.' However, George W. Bush, the then President of the United States, stated, 'We have made options clear to our enemies in word and deed. When leaders make smart and responsible decisions, abandon terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, as Colonel Gaddafi did, they are acting in the interest of their people and contributing to the security of all nations.' A protester in Libya. Which 'Libya model'? 2003 or 2011? John Bolton in 2018, on the eve of his appointment as National Security Advisor at the White House, responded to a question about the possibility of U.S. negotiations with North Korea by saying, 'These negotiations will be short and will follow the Libya model.' Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang was deeply upset by these remarks, and Donald Trump stated that the United States is not looking for such a model for North Korea and 'he – the North Korean leader – will stay there, leading his country, and his country will be very wealthy.' The U.S. President's reference was to the fate that befell Muammar Gaddafi eight years after the Libya agreement with the West. Libya, which was gradually returning to the international community in the years following the agreement, underwent events due to the protests known as the 'Arab Spring,' which ultimately led to Western countries' intervention, the overthrow of the regime, and the death of Muammar Gaddafi. Critics accused Mr. Trump of misunderstanding the Libya model and stated that Mr. Bolton's reference was to Libya's denuclearization and had nothing to do with the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi's regime. However, many observers in the years following the overthrow of the Libyan regime and the death of Muammar Gaddafi have emphasized that this fate has overshadowed the initial success of the Libya model and cannot be used as a roadmap for other countries, including Iran.