What We Know So Far About the Damage from Israel's Attack on Islamic Republic Positions

One day after Israel's attack on Islamic Republic positions, news sources and analysts have revealed more details about what was destroyed in this unprecedented attack. The Israeli newspaper Jerusalem Post reported on the Israeli Air Force's strikes on dozens of sites used for producing solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles, significantly reducing the Islamic Republic's ability to replenish its missile arsenal. According to the news site 'Walla', the Islamic Republic was unable to produce some of the destroyed equipment on its own and had imported them from China. This Israeli news outlet, citing three Israeli sources, added that the targets of the attack were a key part of the Islamic Republic's ballistic missile program. David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector, and Dekker Ollet, a researcher at the American think tank CNA, told Reuters that the facilities used for mixing solid fuel for missiles at the military site of Parchin were targeted by Israel. Ollet stated that Israel also targeted a missile production site in Khojir near Tehran. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic announced that Israeli fighter jets attacked border radar systems in Ilam and Khuzestan provinces and around Tehran using 'very light' warheads. Albright posted on X, citing commercial satellite images, that Israel targeted a building in Parchin named 'Taleqan 2', which had been used for experimental activities during the now-defunct nuclear weapons development program known as 'Amad'. He referenced documents stolen by Israel in 2018, stating that the Islamic Republic had kept important experimental equipment in 'Taleqan 2'. Albright added that even if the Islamic Republic had removed key materials from this building before the Israeli airstrike, the intrinsic value of the building for future nuclear weapons-related activities should not be overlooked. He continued that satellite images from Parchin show that Israel damaged three other buildings located 320 meters from 'Taleqan 2'. In two of these three buildings, solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed. In this context, Dekker Ollet noted that satellite images from 'Planet Labs PBC' indicate the destruction of three buildings used for mixing solid missile fuel and a storage facility in Parchin. Images from 'Planet Labs PBC' of the Khojir military site also show that two buildings used for mixing solid missile fuel in this complex were destroyed as a result of the Israeli attack. Reuters, citing satellite images, pointed to the berms around these buildings, adding that the purpose of these berms was to prevent chain explosions in all buildings in case of a fire in one of them. According to Ollet, producing industrial mixers is difficult, and their export and import are under strict control. He added that the Iranian government has imported them for years at great expense and faces challenges in replacing them. Ollet further stated that with its limited operation on Saturday morning, Israel was able to significantly impact the Islamic Republic's ability to mass-produce missiles and make any potential missile attacks by the Iranian government to penetrate Israeli air defenses more difficult. Axios news site also reported, citing three anonymous Israeli sources, that Israel destroyed 12 mixers necessary for producing solid fuel used in long-range ballistic missiles, which severely reduces the Islamic Republic's ability to replenish its missile stockpile and may deter the government from launching extensive missile attacks against Israel. Israeli sources added that four S-300 air defense systems, which were positioned to protect Tehran's nuclear and energy facilities, were targeted by Israel. They stated that a drone production factory and a facility in the Parchin military complex were also targeted by Israel. In this context, the Arabic newspaper 'Elaph' reported that Israel destroyed a secret ballistic missile production factory and a large number of heavy fuel mixers necessary for powering the 'Kheibar' and 'Haj Qasem' missiles during its Saturday morning attacks. These two missiles were used in the recent Iranian missile attack on Israel. According to the Elaph report, a ballistic missile production factory that was the 'backbone of Iran's missile industry' was destroyed as a result of the Israeli attacks. The report adds that around 20 mixers, each worth at least two million dollars, were destroyed during these attacks. While 'Walla' reported that it would take at least a year to restore production for these equipment, informed sources from the Islamic Republic's missile industry told 'Elaph' that re-operationalizing the factory would require at least two years. In this context, Iranian and Israeli officials told the New York Times that air defenses stationed at the Imam Khomeini Petrochemical Complex in Khuzestan province and the Abadan oil refinery were targeted. Hamid Hosseini, an expert on Iran's oil and gas industry and a member of the Iranian-Iraqi Chamber of Commerce, told the New York Times that the Israeli attacks contained a 'clear message' to the Islamic Republic. According to him, given the many serious economic consequences for Iran and the Islamic Republic's realization of these risks, Tehran must now act 'wisely' and avoid further tensions. The Jerusalem Post reported that over 100 Israeli aircraft participated in the Saturday morning attacks with the mission of striking the most advanced air defense systems of the Islamic Republic and ensuring air superiority for any potential future operations, including the possibility of low-altitude attacks over Tehran. No estimate of the total damage from the Saturday morning attacks by Israel against the military positions of the Islamic Republic is currently available. Satellite images from the military sites of Parchin and Khojir were analyzed by the Associated Press on Sunday, relying on satellite images from these military sites. Satellite images from 'Planet Labs PBC' also show burned land around the Tanghe Bijar natural gas production site in Ilam province, although it is unclear if this was due to Israeli attacks. The most obvious damage can be seen at the Parchin site, about 40 kilometers southeast of downtown Tehran and near the Mamlou Dam, where one structure was completely destroyed and other structures sustained damage. Additionally, in Khojir, located 20 kilometers from downtown Tehran, at least two damaged structures from the attack can be observed. The International Atomic Energy Agency believes that the Islamic Republic has previously conducted tests of powerful explosives used in the process of producing nuclear weapons at Parchin. Khojir is also said to have an underground tunnel system and missile production sites that the Islamic Republic has secretly built. The Associated Press, citing Dekker Ollet, an analyst at the American think tank CNA, reported that the destroyed structures in Khojir and Parchin include a storage facility and other structures used for industrial mixers to produce the solid fuel needed in the Islamic Republic's ballistic missile arsenal. The Israeli army also announced after its Saturday morning attacks that it targeted missile production facilities used in the Islamic Republic's attacks against this country. The destruction of such sites could significantly disrupt the Islamic Republic's ability to build new ballistic missiles. Despite announcing the deaths of four people as a result of the Israeli attack, the Islamic Republic has not mentioned the damages inflicted on Parchin and Khojir. It is still unclear how many of the Islamic Republic's military sites were damaged as a result of the Saturday morning attacks by Israel, and the Iranian government has not released any images of the damage caused by these attacks. According to Iranian officials, Israel targeted areas in three provinces: Ilam, Khuzestan, and Tehran. One day after Israel's attack on the Islamic Republic's positions, officials say 'we will respond'.