What Will Happen If Two-Thirds of Congress Reject the Nuclear Agreement?

While Barack Obama, the President of the United States, is trying to get the nuclear agreement with Iran through Congress, he hopes for the support of his fellow party members, namely Democratic senators and representatives. A senior senator from the Democratic Party announced that he will vote against the nuclear agreement between Iran and six world powers in the upcoming vote next month. According to the Associated Press, Chuck Schumer, an influential Democratic senator from New York, stated that he believes Iran is not seeking a moderate path but is using this agreement to achieve its 'malevolent' goals. This position is echoed by another Democratic member of the House of Representatives, Eliot Engel, who is also a senior member of the Democratic Party and a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, stating he will vote against the agreement. Barack Obama, in defense of the nuclear agreement with Iran and the P5+1 countries, said in a speech at American University in Washington on August 5, 'Let’s not play with words; the only options we ultimately face are choosing between diplomacy or some form of war.' He had previously emphasized that if Congress opposes the nuclear agreement with Iran, he would veto Congress's decision. However, the reality is that if two-thirds of Congress members oppose the nuclear agreement with Iran, even Obama's veto will be ineffective, and Congress's decision will be enforceable. If such a situation arises, the United States will take a position that is different from many countries, as the UN Security Council approved the nuclear agreement with Iran on July 20. Following this event, the foreign ministers of the European Union also endorsed the nuclear agreement with Iran in their meeting in Brussels. Subsequently, ten ASEAN member countries and five major neighboring countries also announced their support for this agreement on August 6 in Malaysia. The question now arises: if two-thirds of Congress members oppose President Obama's decision to approve the nuclear agreement, what conditions will arise for the U.S. on the global stage? Can the U.S. confront all the countries that have expressed their agreement with this deal alone? Habib Hosseini-Fard, a political analyst residing in Germany, believes that 'the situation will be very difficult. Consider that this agreement is the result of 20 months of negotiations and has the backing of international support and the UN Security Council. All of this progress that managed to push Iran to make concessions was mainly achieved through sanctions that the U.S. successfully rallied its allies around internationally. Now, if this agreement fails in the U.S., there will be no reason for that previous alliance to remain in the international arena, and the entire sanctions regime will naturally face fundamental disruptions. What the senators or the majority of Congress members want is no longer achievable unless they push the U.S. towards entering a war. Given that the U.S. cannot continue to impose extensive sanctions against Iran, and as mentioned, their allies see no reason to support the U.S. demand for sanctions against Iran. For all these reasons, the U.S. government faces a fundamental defeat internally without Congress having any options on how to prevent Iran from continuing its nuclear program while also figuring out how to reinstate sanctions that align with Congress's wishes.' Meanwhile, AIPAC and several other pro-Israel organizations in the U.S. have allocated significant budgets for airing television ads in America, aiming to mobilize public opinion and Congress members against the nuclear agreement, to the extent that Barack Obama recently indicated in a phone call with his supporters that opponents have 'spent a lot of money' to promote their positions against this agreement. Meanwhile, Reuven Rivlin, the President of Israel, stated in interviews published on August 6 that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's excessive opposition to the nuclear agreement with Iran has led to Israel's isolation. The Israeli president, who has a ceremonial role, said in an interview with Haaretz, 'These struggles and efforts, however justified, will ultimately cost Israel.' Frenoush Ram, a journalist residing in Israel, told Radio Farda about the current atmosphere in the country: 'The Israeli government has almost come to the definitive belief that the agreement will initially be rejected in Congress, leading to the second stage after Mr. Obama’s use of his veto power regarding Congress's resolutions. I believe the Israeli government is working for the stage after the veto, meaning garnering support from two-thirds of U.S. Congress members to override Mr. Obama’s veto. For this reason, Mr. Netanyahu is making the greatest effort to attract those 13 senators whose votes are needed to align with his views.' Congress members must clarify their position on the nuclear agreement with Iran and six world powers by September 17 of this year. Republicans, who hold the majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, oppose this agreement.