When Statistics Speak; The Heavy Shadow of Hunger in Iran

The Statistical Center of Iran has reported a shift in people's spending on current expenses, indicating that food and beverages, along with housing, have gained greater importance in the list of current expenses; an event that reflects the expanding shadow of hunger over the country. According to the Statistical Center, the importance coefficient of the food and beverage group has increased by 2.18 percentage points. The housing group follows with an increase of 0.61 percentage points in importance. Conversely, the importance of education, recreation and culture, transportation, and health and treatment groups has decreased more than others. The high importance of food items in people's expense baskets and an inflation rate of 45.8% raises the question of how much of the current income is spent in this sector. To better understand this issue, we refer to the ideal food basket developed by the Ministry of Health in 2012. According to this food basket, each Iranian should consume 320 grams of bread, 100 grams of rice, 20 grams of pasta, 26 grams of legumes, 70 grams of potatoes, 280 grams of vegetables, 260 grams of fruit, 48 grams of red meat, 50 grams of white meat, 24 grams of eggs, between 225 to 240 grams of milk or dairy, 35 to 40 grams of oil, and 40 to 50 grams of sugar daily. The weighted and monetary calculation of the announced table shows that each individual should consume 1528 grams of various food items; these items cost approximately 126,000 tomans daily at current prices. This figure amounts to 3,780,000 tomans for a month, and a family of four must spend 15,121,000 tomans monthly on food according to the ideal basket announced by the Ministry of Health. Housing is the second item that has a high importance coefficient in the new statistics. According to the Statistical Center, the average rent in Tehran reached 100,000 tomans per square meter in 2021, and the latest statistics from this center in January of last year indicate a 40% inflation rate in housing, meaning 140,000 tomans per square meter. Based on this, considering inflation until January 2023, renting a 50-square-meter residential unit costs 7 million tomans per month. Given the estimated costs for housing and food alone, a family of four needs to spend over 22 million tomans. Meanwhile, Solat Mortazavi, the Minister of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare, announced that workers with an average family size of 3.3 persons saw their income increase from 6,433,117 tomans to 8,208,300 tomans, an average growth of 27%. However, what has this deep gap between income and expenses done to people's food baskets? According to field reports published in Iran, people's food baskets have undergone fundamental changes, and most people have replaced quality food items with lesser quality ones. Additionally, an examination of statements from official and trade authorities indicates that the consumption of essential food items in people's livelihoods has faced a significant decline in 2023. Accordingly, fruit and vegetable consumption has decreased by 60%. Red and white meat consumption has also decreased by 40%, and oil and butter have faced a 40% reduction in consumption. Studies show that pasta consumption has decreased by 30%, and eggs by 25%. Rice, milk, dairy, and tea have also experienced a 20% reduction in consumption, and finally, sugar and sweets have seen a 15% decrease. The reduction in food consumption and the replacement of quality food with lesser quality items in recent years have had hidden and less visible impacts on society. To better understand this issue, we should pay attention to the remarks of Ahmad Ismailzadeh, the director of the Community Nutrition Improvement Office at the Ministry of Health, who told the ILNA news agency that last year "200,000 children and 250,000 pregnant mothers suffering from malnutrition" were identified. According to official statistics from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, about 16% of children under six years old in Iran suffer from malnutrition, and 800,000 children in growth stages face energy and protein deficiencies, as well as micronutrient shortages. Statistics also indicate that 11% of children in Iran are underweight, and about 5% of children are severely malnourished. It is worth mentioning that a report from the Iranian Ministry of Labor in the winter of last year estimated the poverty line for 2023 at 7,700,000 tomans for the entire country and 14,700,000 tomans for Tehran. According to this report, the poverty line for 2023 is estimated to be 2,850,000 tomans per capita across the country and about 7,700,000 tomans for a family of four. This figure for three- and four-member households in Tehran in 2023 is about 11,900,000 and 14,700,000 tomans, respectively. The poverty rate for a family of four in 2021 was 4,541,000 tomans for the entire country. There are alarming reports about the demographic future; the tragedy of governance and the uprising of aging. Increasing criticism of the government for not publishing statistics; controlling inflation with "statistical imprisonment." The Iranian economy is on a bumpy road; the trade balance was also negative last year. Tens of thousands of children are "working and living on the streets" in Iran; social services oppose their collection. The Statistical Center questioned Raisi's claims; unemployment statistics increased last year. The "misery index" in Iran increased by 155% over five years. A look at the employment status and social participation of women in Iran. Uncontrolled inflation in the housing market; the prevalence of shared housing in Iran.