When Will Russian Missile Systems Be Delivered to Iran?

The new S-300 contract between Russia and Iran faced opposition from the United States and protests from Israel, but the ambiguous and contradictory messages from Russian and Iranian officials about this deal raise further questions. The Iranian Defense Minister expressed hope on Tuesday that the S-300 would arrive in Iran within two months. However, the head of Rosoboronexport, who announced the new contract with Iran for the first time on Monday, stated that the contract consists of two parts, and after the first part is executed, Iran must withdraw its complaint from the international court for the second part to become operational. Meanwhile, Rosoboronexport, the only state entity in Russia that can sign arms contracts with foreign countries, refrained from any response. While no official has specified what system will be delivered to Iran, when, and under what conditions, the Russian newspaper Kommersant sought answers from sources whose identities were not disclosed. Radio Farda asked Ivan Safronov, a reporter from Kommersant, whether his investigation was successful and whether it was determined what system would be delivered to Iran. Ivan Safronov: "In essence, the options were very limited because the production of the S-300 PMU-1 missile defense system, which was the subject of the 2007 contract, has stopped in Russia. There are very few of these systems in the Russian Ministry of Defense's warehouses, but these systems are not for sale, and Iran was also interested in purchasing more advanced systems. Last winter, Rosoboronexport proposed that Iran become a customer for the S-300 VM or Antey-2500. Currently, Russia is actively exporting these systems. However, Iran thought about it for a while and ultimately did not accept this offer. Although the S-300 VM is much more advanced than the S-300 PMU-1, its price is also significantly higher, and purchasing four to five systems of this type would cost up to $2 billion. Meanwhile, Iran wants to keep costs within the limits of the previous contract, and under the new contract, four S-300 PMU-2 systems will be purchased from Russia for about $1 billion. These systems are the same ones that Russia was supposed to deliver to Syria but canceled the deal under Israeli pressure. Now it has been decided that these missile systems will be prepared for delivery to Iran after necessary modifications. Apparently, updating these systems will take about 18 months, so if we consider the contract signing date to be early November, it is clear that Iran will not receive the S-300 PMU-2 before the second half of 2017. This means they did not want to sell the second-hand S-300 PMU-1 but are delivering the PMU-2, which was ordered by another party but was deprived of receiving it, to Iran? Every advanced system, including the S-300 missile defense systems, is built considering the specific demands of their customers. Naturally, these systems will also be equipped according to Iran's specifications. However, this process requires time, and certainly, the Almaz-Antey company, the manufacturer of air defense systems in Russia, has the capability to adapt these systems to Iran's requirements without any issues. Is 18 months too long for this process? Each system must participate in several exercises after its completion; otherwise, the factory will not guarantee its quality. Consider that if each system typically has between 6 to 8 missiles, completing and testing them is not a matter of one or two days. 18 months is a completely measured and realistic timeframe, especially considering the workload at Almaz-Antey, which, in addition to fulfilling its international contracts, also has a tight program for equipping the Russian armed forces. It is clear that the contract with Iran will not be executed sooner than this period. Last summer, Russian and Iranian officials repeatedly announced the imminent signing of the new S-300 contract, and a high-level Iranian delegation also traveled to Russia, but this contract was not signed. Your newspaper reported at that time that disagreements over the types of systems and the conditions for Iran to withdraw its complaint from the court prevented the contract from being concluded. However, this time the contract was signed without any noise. Do you have any information about the conditions of its signing? Last week, the head of Rosoboronexport said that the contract with Iran is in the final stage, so it can be inferred that this contract was signed in the last few days. We know that during these days a delegation from Iran visited Almaz-Antey, and it is likely that they reviewed the systems that are to be prepared for Iran. However, we do not know if a high-ranking official who could sign such an important contract was among them or not. I do not have any further information. Finally, I want you to explain what the first part of the new contract that the head of Rosoboronexport referred to is. The first part means a few hundred million dollars in advance payment that initiates the operational phase. Whenever Iran transfers this amount, Almaz-Antey will begin equipping the systems. At this stage, Russia expects Iran to withdraw its complaint from the international court. Of course, during this time, work will not stop unless emergency conditions prevent this process again.