Where Does the Death of Raisi Lead the Political Landscape?

The crash of Ibrahim Raisi's helicopter, the former president of Iran, has brought political fluctuations both within the Islamic Republic and throughout the region. However, analysts say that Raisi's death will not lead to major changes in Tehran's domestic and foreign policies. The main power centers in Iran are Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, who has the final say in all important governmental matters, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has gained significant power. The president in the Islamic Republic of Iran has limited powers. Hamidreza Azizi, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, states, "Raisi's death will not in itself bring about significant changes in Iran's policies. After all, the president is the second in the hierarchy of power in the Islamic Republic, and the strategic directions are determined by the leader." Ibrahim Raisi, during his presidency, was responsible for the brutal suppression of anti-government protests in 2022 and the tightening of hijab laws in the country. Experts say the real significance of Raisi's death is that it could exacerbate power struggles among hardliners in the Islamic Republic. Many considered Ibrahim Raisi as a potential next leader of the Islamic Republic. Therefore, his death could complicate plans for determining a successor to Ali Khamenei. Raisi was previously the head of the judiciary and had been one of Khamenei's longtime allies for decades, and it was believed that Khamenei was preparing him as his successor in the leadership position. Sanam Vakil, the Middle East and North Africa program director at the Chatham House think tank in London, states that Raisi seemed "perfectly suited" to take over after Khamenei and had even structured his life based on emulating the 85-year-old leader of the Islamic Republic. She adds that Ibrahim Raisi was "a loyal employee willing to implement the commands of the leadership through various institutions, and now we have no candidate who can meet all the leader's demands." His death has now left a vacancy in the government, and according to Iranian law, elections to fill this gap must be held within 50 days, prompting the clerical institution to seek a suitable replacement. Middle East Eye reports that secret negotiations between Iran and the U.S. over Gaza may be jeopardized by Raisi's death. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament, and Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the head of the judiciary, are currently the leading candidates in this arena. According to Hamidreza Azizi, the next president could have a "significant impact on the overall path" of determining a successor for Khamenei. He adds that "as a result, this will lead to intensified internal competition among conservatives for the presidency." On the other hand, Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group based in Brussels, states that the upcoming elections could provide an opportunity for the clerical regime to take a "different path" by holding a relatively competitive vote. In 2021, Raisi won the presidential election by a large margin in a vote that many considered fraudulent. This victory solidified the power of hardliners and allowed them to dominate all three branches of government. Ali Vaez tells Radio Farda, "I believe that now the government will focus all its efforts on preparing a successor for Khamenei to create a unified shape at the top of the power pyramid and prevent any rival from entering this circle." International relations, particularly the deepening ties between Iran and Russia, have raised concerns in the West, and Raisi's death is unlikely to affect the trend of this relationship. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Iran supplied thousands of drones to Russia. These drones, known as "Shahed," have played a key role in this 27-month war, allowing Russia to devastate Ukrainian cities from afar and damage the country's critical infrastructure. Ilya Kusa, an analyst at the Future Institute based in Kyiv, wrote on Facebook: "It is unlikely that anything will change in the relations between Russia and Iran. At least as long as the presidency in Iran remains in the hands of a conservative individual." He added that the fate of tactical cooperation between Russia and Iran is not tied to one person but depends on the international situation, poor relations with the West, and the state of convergence at various levels. Regarding U.S.-Iran relations, which have been tense for decades, the Biden administration does not expect any transformation or change with Raisi's death. John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman, told reporters on May 20 that when it comes to Iran's policy, it is Khamenei who is the "decision-maker," not the president. Kirby stated, "Therefore, we do not expect any change in Iran's behavior. So Iranians should not expect any change in the U.S. approach regarding holding them accountable."