Where is the Iran-Saudi Arabia Relationship Heading?

On Saturday, a protest by a number of Basij students in front of the Saudi embassy and the UN office in Tehran was the latest consequence of the deteriorating relations between Tehran and Riyadh. The protests occurred despite the opposition from Iran's Foreign Ministry and the Tehran governorate, and the strained relations were exacerbated by two somewhat simultaneous events: one, Saudi Arabia's military attack on the Houthis in Yemen, and two, a recent sexual assault on two Iranian teenagers at Jeddah airport, leading to a temporary suspension of Umrah pilgrimage trips until the perpetrators are tried and punished. Last week, Riyadh's promise to swiftly punish the guilty officials added fuel to the fire. However, the disagreement between the two countries over the attack on Saudi Arabia remains unchanged. Saudi Arabia claims it is trying to suppress the Houthis at the invitation of the ousted president who has taken refuge in Riyadh, while Iran accuses Saudi Arabia and Hezbollah of strengthening the Shiite Houthis. On the other hand, Iran has proposed a four-step plan calling for a halt to Saudi military attacks on the Houthis in Yemen. The plan includes establishing a ceasefire, sending humanitarian aid, dialogue among all Yemeni stakeholders, and forming an inclusive government to end the conflicts in the country. How serious is the new disagreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia? Where are Tehran and Riyadh's relations heading? This week's guests in the program provide answers to these questions: Mohsen Milani, head of the political science department and professor of international relations at the University of South Florida, Mehdi Nourbakhsh, professor of international relations at Harrisburg University in the US, and Kourosh Homayounpour, an international relations commentator and director of the educational center at George Washington University. Mr. Mohsen Milani, let's start with the latest news regarding the consequences of the verbal conflict between Tehran and Riyadh. The protests by Basij students in front of the Saudi embassy and the UN office in Tehran on Saturday. How serious have the disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Iran become? Mohsen Milani: I think the disagreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia have intensified after Saudi Arabia's military attack on the Houthis in Yemen, especially after Saudi Arabia has tried to create an anti-Houthi alliance, which I believe is actually an anti-Iran alliance. This is because Saudi Arabia is very concerned that a nuclear deal might be signed between Iran and the six major world powers, and afterward, relations between Iran and the US might improve in some way. Saudi Arabia is also worried that the US is not willing to defend all of Saudi Arabia's policies as it did before. It has tried to create an Arab alliance with Turkey's participation, which I believe will not be effective, even regarding the Houthis, because Turkey has announced that it seeks a ceasefire. Pakistan, which receives over one and a half billion dollars in aid from Saudi Arabia each year, has also stated that it is not willing to send troops to Yemen. The Yemen issue is very serious. This is the second time in the last four years that Saudi Arabia has attacked one of its neighbors. First, it intervened militarily in Bahrain, sending troops and tanks, killing Shiites there. Now it is attacking the Houthis, whom Saudi Arabia claims are puppets of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which I believe is a completely incorrect statement. The Houthis have a good relationship with the Islamic Republic, and the Islamic Republic may have provided them with financial assistance. They have certainly provided political support. However, the Houthis are also a movement that has been active in Yemen for over 20 years and belongs to the Zaydi sect, which has ruled Yemen for over a thousand years. Mr. Nourbakhsh, the expressions of sentiment against Saudi Arabia in the past two weeks have not been limited to the Basij group, and both in the real streets and on social media, alongside expressions of national and patriotic sentiment, it has even extended to groups that do not culturally align with the Islamic Republic. To the extent that insults against Arabs and the humiliation of Arabs have come into play, especially in connection with the reaction to two recent sexual assault incidents. Is the Iranian government influenced by the diverse protesters, or is it exploiting the anger of the protesters? Mehdi Nourbakhsh: The entire issue of the assault on the two pilgrims is not as significant as the Basij are trying to exploit it. The head of the Hajj Organization stated that it is not at that level at all. Mr. Rouhani's government does not want this issue to escalate with the problems it has with Saudi Arabia within the country. But a group is exploiting it, and unfortunately, blind nationalism, which many of our people have a negative perception of Arabs and the Arab world, has unfortunately all come together and created a situation in the country that is not in the country's interest. On the other hand, I confirm Mr. Milani's statement that Saudi Arabia is doing exactly what it did in Bahrain in Yemen. After all the commotion and discussions about the Al-Wefaq and Shiite groups in Bahrain benefiting from Iran's influence, the Bahraini government assessed the situation and could not find anything. Now, Saudi Arabia, because it is losing its strategic position in the region due to oil and various reasons, is seeking to create tension. European countries are doubting Saudi Arabia's claims about the extent of Iran's involvement there. The Houthis are a group that has been pressured by the government for years and has not been a fighting group at all. This is the first time the Houthis have taken up arms. Saudi Arabia is exploiting the situation. I believe that the more the Iranian government can calm the situation, and the position that Iran has, and Turkey has also announced, I think it is better, and I hope that a ceasefire will be accepted in the process. Mr. Homayounpour, the Basij students on Saturday wrote on their protest placards that the crime of Saudi Arabia is the crime of America. They implicitly regarded Saudi Arabia's attack on Yemen as a reflection of American foreign policy. Concurrently with Saudi Arabia's military attack on Yemen, US Secretary of State John Kerry announced that the US was monitoring various flights from Iran to Yemen. What policy is the US pursuing in the disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran? Kourosh Homayounpour: I believe that the US is somewhat stuck in this situation regarding its policy in the Middle East and specifically regarding Iran and Saudi Arabia due to various conflicts and temporary and completely changing alliances in each of the Middle Eastern countries. For example, look at Iraq, where the US and Iran are supporting the Baghdad government against ISIS forces and are practically providing military assistance. In Yemen, the US is, in a sense, fighting against Iran alongside Saudi Arabia. While in Yemen, US and Iranian interests align against Al-Qaeda's network in the Arabian Peninsula, which is present in Yemen and is one of the groups inside Yemen. In Syria, again, Iran and the US are opposed to each other, and Saudi Arabia is aligned with the US. The overall situation in all these countries, in Bahrain as mentioned, in Lebanon as well... now the Saudi government has promised $2 billion in aid to the Lebanese army, while we know that Iran supports Hezbollah. I believe that on the other hand, the issue of Iran-US nuclear negotiations is of great importance to the US, and it does not want any of these issues to overshadow it. Therefore, I think the US is somewhat stuck in the middle. It does not know what to do correctly. It has to support Saudi Arabia to some extent, and at the same time, due to nuclear negotiations and other issues, it has common interests with Iran and is trying to juggle these issues like a juggler throwing four or five balls in the air. Mr. Milani, as far as the sexual assault is concerned, as Mr. Nourbakhsh mentioned, on Friday, the Saudi Foreign Minister announced in a meeting with the Iranian ambassador in Riyadh that Riyadh would swiftly and decisively punish the guilty airport officials. However, Riyadh officials still emphasize the correctness of the attack on the Shiite Houthi positions in Yemen at the invitation of the ousted president who has taken refuge in Riyadh. What does the separation between these two issues indicate in the Saudi view? Mohsen Milani: It seems to indicate that they know that this incident, this sexual assault, was a mistake. As far as I have studied, I think what Dr. Nourbakhsh said is correct. This issue is not as severe as it is portrayed in Iran. But I believe that the dispute between the Islamic Republic and Saudi Arabia has nothing to do with this issue. Some people inside Iran are using this as an excuse to bring up their opposition to Saudi Arabia and relate it to US foreign policy to prevent the signing of a nuclear deal. The disagreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia are serious. As I mentioned, regarding Bahrain, they have had serious disagreements. It is very important for me to point out that neither the US nor Iran has serious strategic interests in Yemen. The only interest the US has in Yemen is primarily related to combating Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Iran has historically never intervened there. During the Shah's era, when a civil war broke out, the Shah supported Muhammad al-Badr, who was opposed by those who had overthrown him. The opponents staged a coup and were supported by the Soviet Union and Egypt. Therefore, the Iran-Saudi issue, as Mr. Homayounpour mentioned, is a dispute that Iran has with Saudi Arabia over issues that start from Yemen and Lebanon, then Syria and Iraq, and now it has come to Yemen and even in relation to Afghanistan. Keep in mind that before the US entered Iraq, two of Iran's biggest enemies, the enemies of the Islamic Republic, were those who had very close ties with Saudi Arabia, namely Saddam Hussein and the Taliban. Now, if you look at Saudi Arabia's situation, you see that in Iraq, Shiites are in power, and this, I believe, has been Saudi Arabia's biggest strategic defeat since World War II. A little lower down, you see that in Bahrain, 80% of the population is Shiite, and these Shiites are ready to change or overthrow the government. Then, further down, you see that in Yemen, the Houthis have reached a point where they cannot be eliminated. The military attack that Saudi Arabia has carried out is no longer feasible. The Houthis have come and become part of the public political society of Yemen, and eliminating them is impossible. Therefore, if you look at the map, you see that Saudi Arabia feels that there are forces around it that are either pro-Iran or forces that could lead to the Shiites of Saudi Arabia, who make up 15 to 20% of the population, entering the political arena. Therefore, they launched this attack to ensure that at least in Yemen, there would not be a force that is either Shiite or even pro-Islamic Republic. Mr. Nourbakhsh, Tehran's defense of the Houthis, who even in their rituals and religious beliefs share similarities with Sunnis in terms of their belief in the caliphs and the way of performing ablution and prayer, to what extent is their strengthening based on the political balance of power and to what extent is it within the framework of sectarian competition? Mehdi Nourbakhsh: Iran is completely in a cold war with Saudi Arabia. We made a very big mistake in the Middle East. Our mistake was in Syria. However, in Bahrain and Yemen, Iran is completely outside that scope. Let me give you an example. This Hadi government, meaning the president of Yemen, was in a position for two years to write a constitution and elect a parliament. After that, something had to be done there. Now the discussion is that the government could not do anything and remain. But the important thing is that this government is extremely unpopular among the Yemeni people, and Saudi Arabia is doing in Yemen what it did in Bahrain. That is, it is trying to impose a government that has no popularity among the Yemeni people by any means. All these discussions go back to the friends' talk about the cold war in the Middle East and that Saudi Arabia no longer has the strategic position of oil and energy it once had. Another very important discussion is that this is also discussed by Israel, and Saudi Arabia is also discussing this, that after this nuclear deal is signed, there is a perception that many in the West have that Iran can create a very healthy and large economy in the Middle East, and competition will begin in a different form in the Middle East. This is why Saudi Arabia, Israel, and other countries do not want Iran to sign the nuclear deal and for the situation in the Middle East to be such that Iran can benefit greatly. As Mr. Milani said, look around. Iraq is completely out of Saudi Arabia's hands. In Syria, they have not been able to do anything. Bahrain is in this state. They were able to maintain Yemen in this way with tanks and weapons. There is constant tension in Bahrain. That is, unresolved problems. This is why Saudi Arabia does not have a healthy situation in the Middle East right now. It has no stable situation in the Middle East. Unfortunately, it is exploiting the situation to pursue this cold war in some way. Mr. Homayounpour, Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian Foreign Minister, has called for an immediate halt to Saudi actions in Yemen by presenting a four-step solution to end the bloodshed in Yemen.