Which Country Leaked the Confidential Nuclear Addendum?

Despite Iran's not very strong protest against the publication of the contents of the 'confidential addendum' to the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) by the Associated Press and accusing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the 'three member countries' of involvement in this action, the reactions of the Islamic Republic officials indicate complete satisfaction of the Iranian government with the publication of the mentioned document and even an interest in releasing the full text of the agreement that was supposed to remain confidential between Iran and the Agency! Amano, the Director General of the IAEA, rejected the accusation of leaking the document after reports of Behrouz Kamalvandi's oral protest, the spokesperson of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, appeared in the Islamic Republic publications. Kamalvandi also appeared on the Islamic Republic TV news program on Saturday night and this time, while lowering the level of Iran's future action from 'protest' to 'warning', voluntarily referred to other parts of the generalities of the confidential agreement with the Agency. On July 19, the Associated Press, quoting 'a diplomat involved in nuclear negotiations with Iran', published a document stating that uranium enrichment restrictions would be lifted at least three years earlier than the 15 years stipulated in the non-confidential comprehensive nuclear agreement. Despite Kamalvandi's initial and mild protest against the 'publication of Iran's confidential documents' by the IAEA, the statements of Zarif, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization, and the manner of facilitating the sending of a copy of the discussed 'addendum' by the Islamic Republic to the Agency, under the pretext of informing about Iran's plan for future uranium enrichment, not only indicate Iran's complete satisfaction with the publication of the discussed confidential document but also strengthen the speculation that the Iranian government is preparing the ground for its publication. During the nuclear negotiations with Iran, the US government provided concessions to Iran to prevent the negotiations from failing, the full publication of which could have aligned some Democratic Party representatives with opposing Republicans during the 60-day congressional discussion on the agreement, potentially leading to the failure of the agreement itself. In this regard, the concessions granted in the form of 'confidential appendices' were drafted in the original document, signed by the Agency and the negotiating parties (the 1+5 group and the Iranian government), but their text was never published. Apparently, congressional representatives, as Susan Rice, the White House National Security Advisor, later stated, were informed of the existence of the confidential documents attached to the nuclear agreement without having the original documents provided to them. Part of the confidential nuclear agreements with Iran concerns activities suspected of having military dimensions, including the method of environmental sampling and soil testing at Parchin and the method of publishing test results, where it is said that the Islamic Republic conducted neutron shooting and high-power explosions to create the trigger for a nuclear bomb. Another main part concerns the continuation of enrichment in Iran and the lifting of restrictions related to uranium enrichment in a shorter time than the 15 years predicted in the JCPOA. Shortly before the final signing of the JCPOA, Amano, the Director General of the Agency, traveled to Tehran and during a one-day negotiation and signing several confidential documents (appendices) with Ali Akbar Salehi, paved the way for the announcement of the nuclear agreement. In the search for the perpetrator of an illegal act, parties that are seen to have an interest (motive) in that act are usually suspected and even pursued. As internal criticism of Rouhani's government and the nuclear agreement intensified, on the pretext of the first anniversary of the JCPOA, the Fars news agency reported that Iran had sent a document to the Agency that apparently 'outlines the prospects for uranium enrichment activities in Iran'. In this document, one of the confidential appendices that was signed last year between Amano and Salehi in Tehran is apparently referenced and attached to the submitted prospect document. Following the submission of this document, the Associated Press published the appendix sent by Iran to the Agency (which had previously been signed by Amano and a copy of which was kept confidential at the Agency). The main point of this confidential appendix is the beginning of the lifting of uranium enrichment restrictions in Iran after ten years and the start of replacing existing and outdated centrifuges with advanced centrifuges, with all of them becoming operational in the fifteenth year. During this gradual change, although the number of centrifuges apparently decreases from over 4,000 to between 2,500 and 3,500 units, in practice, due to the greater separation power of the new centrifuges, Iran's enrichment capacity will be two to three times (compared to the performance of the new devices) greater than today. The declared goal of the JCPOA is to create a one-year gap between Iran and the capacity to build a nuclear bomb, while in the fifteenth year, Iran's distance from the bomb (nuclear breakout) will be much less than one year. Major national and regional security plans are usually designed with predictions of developments 25 years ahead. Ali Akbar Salehi's expression of satisfaction with the document's contents, while calling it a 'breach of promise', indicates the Iranian government's satisfaction with the publication of the document; a topic that Javad Zarif also welcomed! Two days after the publication of the mentioned document, Salehi stated: 'With the publication of this document, the people of Iran will be informed of what correct and appropriate predictions we have made for the development of our nuclear industry.' Javad Zarif also predicted two days later: 'God willing, when this entire document is published, it will become clear where we will reach in 15 years.' Zarif also noted: 'All the media in the world did not see the entire document to be aware of the honor that our negotiating friends created, but nevertheless, all media say that Iran will rapidly move towards industrial enrichment after 10 years.' In response to the publication of the discussed confidential appendix, Reza Najafi, Iran's permanent representative to the Agency, rightly states: 'The disclosure of confidential arrangements by any party will severely negatively impact the implementation of it, and therefore the Agency must ensure that the provisions of these arrangements remain confidential, just like the arrangements with member countries.' The publication of part of the confidential appendices of the nuclear agreement, which contrary to Reza Najafi's claim, is not considered an 'independent agreement between Iran and the Agency' and is undoubtedly connected to the JCPOA and an inseparable part of it, although it may help strengthen Rouhani's government's position and reduce criticisms of the nuclear negotiations during the ongoing political competitions in Iran, the timing of this action coinciding with the peak of electoral activities in the US could seriously threaten the future government's commitment to the terms of the agreement.