Which States are 'Swing' in the U.S. Elections and How are the Two Candidates Faring in Them

The U.S. presidential election is a complex process, and the person who receives the most votes does not necessarily end up in the White House. In this election, the electoral votes determine the winner, and each state has a different number of electoral votes. In all states except Maine and Nebraska, any candidate who can receive even one more vote will gain all the electoral votes of that area. Each state also has a different share; for example, California has the most electoral votes with 54. The total number of electoral votes in the country is 538, and any candidate who can reach 270 will win the election. However, the fate of many of these 50 states is already clear, with some leaning towards the Democratic Party and others towards the Republicans. Given that the main priority is not the total votes, the competition in states where the votes of the two parties are close is particularly important. In each U.S. election cycle, several states are considered swing states or battlegrounds. This means that the outcome in these states is uncertain until the election is held, and it cannot be predicted in advance whether the Republican or Democratic candidate will win there. For this cycle, U.S. election experts identify seven states as swing states: Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. The number of electoral votes for each state is as follows: Pennsylvania: 19 votes, Arizona: 11 votes, North Carolina: 16 votes, Georgia: 16 votes, Wisconsin: 10 votes, Michigan: 15 votes, Nevada: 6 votes. This list is not always fixed; for example, in some cycles, states like Florida and Iowa were also considered swing states, but demographic, racial, ethnic, and religious changes have caused some of them to become blue (Democratic) or red (Republican). Regarding the status of the two candidates, according to polls in states where the outcome seems clear, Kamala Harris currently has 226 electoral votes and Donald Trump has 219. Therefore, the competition is over 93 electoral votes in the seven swing states that will determine which of these two candidates will win the U.S. presidential election. The results of the polls in these seven states indicate a very close race between the two candidates. Although these polls have been conducted by various institutions, some portray Trump's situation as better while fewer depict Harris's situation as more favorable, an average of all these polls can provide an estimate of the current status of the two candidates. In Pennsylvania, the most important of the seven swing states, the competition between the two candidates is likely to be closer than in all six other states. The New York Times reports that the race in this state, three days before the election, is 49 to 48 in favor of Donald Trump. However, the Washington Post states that Harris is ahead by one percent of her rival. Other reputable polls also show that the two candidates are very close in this crucial state, which has 19 electoral votes. This state voted for Trump in 2016 but preferred Joe Biden in 2020. Arizona is probably one of the few swing states where one of the two candidates feels more comfortable. The average of the polls covered by the New York Times shows that Donald Trump is ahead of his rival 49 to 47. The Washington Post also confirms a two percent lead for the Republican candidate, while most polls regarding this state indicate that in recent days the gap between the two candidates has widened, and Donald Trump is solidifying his position as the likely winner in this state. Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, surprised everyone by voting for Joe Biden in 2020, while this state had voted for Donald Trump in 2016. North Carolina is another state that has shown a growing trend for Donald Trump's campaign in recent weeks. Although this state has been red and Republican since August, it seems that the gap between Trump and Harris has widened slightly in recent days. The New York Times states that Trump is ahead 49 to 48 in this state, and this trend continues in Trump's favor. The Washington Post also confirms a one percent lead for Trump, stating that in the past week this state has tilted slightly more towards Trump. North Carolina, with 16 electoral votes, voted for Donald Trump in the last two elections, while both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden lost there. Georgia, a state in the southeastern U.S., is likely to be considered Trump's territory. This state has consistently been red since August and the early days of Kamala Harris's entry into the electoral race, with polls showing that Donald Trump has been ahead of his rival in this state. Both the New York Times and the Washington Post report that the Republican candidate is two percent ahead of Kamala Harris in this state. The 16 electoral votes of Georgia went to Joe Biden in 2020 by only three-tenths of a percent, while this state voted for Donald Trump in 2016. Wisconsin is one of the most competitive and closest states among the swing states, where the gap between the two candidates has been narrowing in recent weeks and days. While in September, Kamala Harris was leading her rival by a relatively comfortable margin, Donald Trump has managed to close the gap, and now the New York Times reports that based on the average of polls, Harris is ahead by one percent of Trump. However, the upward trend for Trump and the downward trend for Harris continue. The Washington Post, however, sees the situation as better for Harris, reporting that this Democratic candidate is two percent ahead of her opponent. Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes went to Joe Biden in 2020 by only a 20,000 vote difference, while this state voted for Donald Trump in 2016. Michigan is another state where both candidates have made numerous visits recently, trying to secure the votes of its citizens. Despite Donald Trump's extensive efforts to attract Muslim votes in this state, the New York Times says the situation is somewhat stabilized and favors Kamala Harris. The New York Times reports that Harris is one percent ahead, while the Washington Post states that this Democratic candidate is two percent ahead of Donald Trump. Michigan, with 16 electoral votes, was another swing state that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, while it preferred Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Nevada, the last state among these seven, has generally been blue but has become one of the swing states, with a very close competition between the Republican and Democratic candidates. While Kamala Harris has been ahead of Donald Trump in this state since the beginning of her campaign, the competition between the two is now very close. Trump has shown an upward trend in this western U.S. state in recent weeks, and according to polls reviewed by the New York Times, both candidates are tied at 48, with the difference being that in the three days leading up to the election, the trend is upward for Trump and downward for Harris. However, the Washington Post has a more optimistic view of Harris's situation in this state, stating that the Democratic candidate is one percent ahead of her rival and that the situation has changed half a percent more in favor of the Vice President in the past week. Among the seven swing states, Nevada has the fewest electoral votes, and its six electoral votes have gone to Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton in the last two elections. In the final days leading up to the election on November 15, both candidates are making their last efforts to sway votes in the swing states in their favor. What the polls show is that the competition between the two candidates is remarkably close, and American citizens may witness one of the most competitive presidential elections in the history of the country. Throughout the history of these states in various election cycles, there has been a shift between Republicans and Democrats. For example, Donald Trump lost five states—Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona—that he won in 2016 in the 2020 election, which contributed to his defeat against Joe Biden. The competition for the 93 electoral votes from these seven swing states will ultimately determine which candidate can reach the golden number of 270 and take over from Joe Biden in January 2025.