Who Are the Protesters in Iran?

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - Several days after the deadly protests in Iran, it is still difficult to say who the protesters are and what their demands are. The protests, which lack a unified leadership, have occurred in various widespread locations and have attracted different groups and classes of the population. This makes it challenging to specify the gender, age group, or class affiliation of the participants. This situation starkly contrasts with the widespread protests of 2009 (1388), which were held in response to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election. The primary reason for those gatherings was public anger and dissatisfaction with what was perceived as election fraud, led by prominent opposition figures known as the Green Movement, and was fundamentally supported by the middle and educated class in urban Tehran. Although comparisons have been made between the recent protests and the unrest of 2009 (1388) for analyzing the position of the recent protests in contemporary Iranian history, the recent five-day protests are not of the same nature. Scott Lucas, an expert on Iranian affairs at the University of Birmingham, UK, states: 'The recent protests differ from what the regime in 2009 (1388) attempted to portray as dissatisfaction among affluent, educated urbanites.' He adds: 'The spread of protests across the country and nearly all cities in Iran indicates widespread opposition to the regime's performance in economic, foreign policy, military interventions in the region, and political and social issues.' Given that individuals under the age of 25 were born after the revolution that led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Iranian government tries to attribute the recent wave of protests to the excitement of young people who, due to their young age, lack experience and knowledge. However, the 25-year-olds remember the events of 2009 (1388) and the violent suppression of peaceful protests and likely many of them participated in the 2013 (1392) elections that led to Hassan Rouhani's presidency. The Iranian government has tried to identify the main cause of the recent unrest as being the youth. Hossein Zolfaqari, the deputy interior minister, stated that 90% of those arrested in the recent protests are under 25 years old. However, although eyewitness accounts and images from the protests show that most participants are young, it would be a mistake to assume that only young people participated in these protests. Given that individuals under the age of 25 were born after the revolution that established the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979 (1357), the Iranian government attempts to attribute the recent wave of protests to the excitement of young people who, due to their young age, lack experience and knowledge. However, the 25-year-olds remember the events of 2009 (1388) and the violent suppression of peaceful protests and likely many of them participated in the 2013 (1392) elections that led to Hassan Rouhani's presidency. Hassan Rouhani, considered a moderate politician, won with promises of improving relations with the West, ensuring greater freedoms, and reviving Iran's economy, which had been damaged by international sanctions. Rouhani also won the 2017 (1396) elections largely due to the nuclear agreement with the international community and the lifting of many foreign sanctions in exchange for reducing the scope of Iran's nuclear program. However, despite the lifting of many international sanctions that had crippled the Iranian economy, dissatisfaction with the lack of distribution of economic gains among the general population has increased. There is no doubt that the high unemployment rate and the dire economic situation in Iran hit the youth of the country the hardest. More than 50% of Iran's population is under 30 years old, and although the official unemployment rate is about 20%, it is believed to be around 40% in reality. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that the youth are the only dissatisfied layer of Iran's population. Raman Ghavami, an expert on Iranian affairs who has studied the recent events and unrest, states: 'Those participating in the protests come from all social classes, religions, and age groups. The poor, the middle class, and the wealthy all participate, and women also play a prominent role.' Ghavami points to images showing that protesters were not arrested by security forces and their solidarity with the protesters in Lorestan province, saying: 'Even some members of the security and police forces refuse to carry out orders.' The absence of a single demand or issue is not the fundamental factor of these protests. The first instance of protests last week occurred in the city of Mashhad, where a group of people protested against rising food prices, including eggs and poultry. However, as the protests spread, the demonstrators directed their anger towards the political leadership of the country, chanting slogans such as 'Death to Rouhani' and 'Death to Khamenei.' Some demonstrators even chanted in favor of the return of the monarchy that was overthrown in the 1979 (1357) revolution. Some protested against the Iranian government's foreign policy, including its support for the Syrian regime, which they see as a waste of the country's resources while Iran itself needs that money domestically. Unlike the protests of 2009 (1388), which were led by prominent figures of the Green Movement who are still under house arrest, the recent protests lack a unified leadership. Alireza Nader, a senior political analyst at the Rand Corporation, tweeted: 'It seems these protests are completely spontaneous and, as far as I can see, without leadership.' Experts believe that the initial protests in Mashhad stemmed from existing rifts among government factions and set the stage for spontaneous protests in other parts of the country. Mashhad, Iran's second-largest city, is the sphere of influence of Ebrahim Raisi, a conservative rival of Hassan Rouhani in the recent presidential election. Naysan Rafati, an expert at the International Crisis Group, states: 'Some hardliners welcomed the initial protests, but what they hoped would help their factional rivalries in the short term has led to broader protests and deeper expressions of dissatisfaction and opposition to the government.' Protests in Iran are not unprecedented, and over the years, numerous protests have been held by taxi drivers, auto industry workers, teachers, and environmental activists; however, most of those cases were related to specific demands, and the government has accepted some of the protesters' requests to some extent. The absence of a unified leadership, unlike the protests of 2009 (1388), which were led by prominent figures of the Green Movement who are still under house arrest, the recent protests lack a unified leadership. Alireza Nader, a senior political analyst at the Rand Corporation, tweeted: 'It seems these protests are completely spontaneous and, as far as I can see, without leadership.' Analysts say that the lack of a fundamental demand and unified leadership will make it more difficult for the Iranian government to suppress these protests. Naysan Rafati states: 'The lack of a unified leadership is both a positive and a negative factor for the Iranian government. On the one hand, due to the lack of leadership, the Iranian government can hope that the protests will quickly die down or be suppressed, and on the other hand, the scale and breadth of these protests and the diverse demands of the protesters will make it very difficult for the government to respond to their grievances.'