Who is the Audience of Rouhani's Speech?

Hassan Rouhani's speech—especially the part dedicated to economic issues—contains notable points that showcase its effectiveness in conveying messages, or in other words, its success. Firstly, it should be noted that the presence of a country's president at the annual UN General Assembly and delivering a speech can create numerous opportunities for the country if effective; otherwise, it can cloud diplomatic relations and impose costs on the nation. One of the elements of an effective speech is understanding the audience and the context in which the speaker sends their message. Naturally, statements not based on accepted public and scientific findings will not open a window to the world. Who are Hassan Rouhani's audiences and in what context does he speak? Rouhani's emphasis on 'improving economic conditions in Iran as the safest and most productive investment destination in the region' indicates that the audience for this part of the Islamic Republic president's speech consists of countries that have the capacity and interest to invest in other countries. Rouhani's audience particularly includes major countries with influence and power in the international arena, which are aware of the issues and problems of other countries, as well as the constraints and advantages of Iran's economy. Thanks to their numerous experts and specialists, they monitor the economic and political situations of countries using various resources and information networks, assessing their competitiveness in different economic fields. Therefore, it is unlikely that the delegations from these countries can be surprised or intimidated by presenting statistics and information that are not new. Additionally, the context of the speech at the annual UN General Assembly is certainly different from presidential election speeches in Iranian cities. The audiences that gather in such assemblies as delegations are capable of analyzing both the hidden and overt points of speeches. The fundamental propositions of the economic section of Hassan Rouhani's speech included his belief that 'Iran is one of the few oil countries that managed to control the severe drop in oil prices in 2014 on the economy.' He claims that 'the process of improving economic conditions in Iran' is underway and '[Iran] reached over 4% growth this spring and economic growth will reach 5% by the end of 2016.' The president of the executive branch considers 'single-digit inflation' and 'approaching oil production and exports during the pre-sanction period' as other achievements of the government. He promises that 'we will witness greater economic, scientific, and technological prosperity in Iran' and 'by implementing economic reforms and adhering to monetary and fiscal discipline, while maintaining the achievement of reducing the inflation rate, we will increase stability and economic predictability, thus paving the way for more investment in the economy.' He claims that 'based on all domestic and international forecasts, Iran will have the highest predicted growth for oil countries this year.' Many of the propositions above that Rouhani attempts to use to connect with his audiences are ineffective and unlikely to gain acceptance. They are contentious and unlikely to be accepted by his audience. For example, various global studies do not confirm that 'Iran is the safest and most productive investment destination in the region.' On the contrary, domestic and international research shows the opposite. Furthermore, it was not Iran's economic efficiency or management that prevented the drop in oil prices from having a widespread impact on Iran's economy. Economic experts know that, given international sanctions and the weakening of Iran's connection to the international economy, it was natural for Iran's economy, which was experiencing larger shocks, to show little reaction to smaller shocks. Additionally, although it cannot be denied that with the coming of the new government, the free fall of the previous government's economy was halted, this does not mean a stable trend of economic improvement in Iran. In the past three years, Iran's economy has shown several flickers of economic improvement through various government doping but soon fell silent. The sustainable improvement of Iran's economy requires structural reforms that face serious obstacles. The emphasis on reducing inflation and achieving single-digit inflation has gradually become a refrain in the speeches of the 'Moderation' government. Single-digit inflation may be a positive point for some domestic audiences in Iran—a country that has had one of the highest inflation rates in the world in recent years—but it is not so in the international arena. Iran's inflation rate is still nearly three times the international inflation rate, and moreover, Iran's economy pays the price for this inflation with stagnation. Furthermore, Iran's oil industry has large capacities and a century of history. Therefore, 'approaching oil production and exports during the pre-sanction period' is more a result of the release of its potential capacity that has been activated with the lifting of sanctions than a managerial, technical, and investment achievement of the current government. It is no secret that due to the lack of investment in Iran's oil industry, no new capacity has been created in this industry in recent years. The final section of Rouhani's speech consists of his promises regarding greater economic, scientific, and technological prosperity, economic reforms, and adherence to monetary and fiscal discipline, while maintaining the achievement of reducing the inflation rate, increasing stability and economic predictability. Such promises do not seem to have any appeal for the audiences of the Islamic Republic's president, who are familiar with the technique of promising! In conclusion, based on the content analysis of Hassan Rouhani's speech, it seems that the speechwriters of the Iranian president have become so caught up in the circular debate and argument with internal rivals that they could not distinguish between the speech at the annual UN General Assembly and an electoral speech inside Iran. The part of Rouhani's speech dedicated to economic issues is largely composed of propositions that are contentious, ambiguous, and provocative, and do not attract the interest of audiences, especially leaders of large and advanced countries—those capable of investment—and do not open an effective dialogue window with the world. The economic section of this speech includes outdated information and claims that are abundantly found in pro-government media.