Who Will Be Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize?

Speculation about the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize is very difficult since the awarding committee has not released any information on this matter, except that 376 individuals and groups have been nominated for the prize, which will be announced on October 7. According to the Associated Press, experts have already begun to speculate based on their experiences and preferences, or information available about a few nominees whose names were revealed upon acceptance of their nominations. Based on this information, some nominees for this year's Nobel Peace Prize include Pope Francis, leader of the Catholics, the Afghan women's cycling team, Edward Snowden, a former employee of U.S. intelligence agencies, the Syrian Civil Defense group known as the White Helmets, and Nadia Murad, a Yazidi woman who escaped from the captivity of the Islamic State and sexual slavery and has now become a spokesperson for these victims. One way to predict this year's winner is to look at the decisions made by the Nobel committee in past years. Analyzing this history over the past 30 years by the Associated Press shows that Nobel Prize winners can usually be divided into five groups. Perhaps no case expresses the spirit of the Nobel Peace Prize as much as long-standing enemies who set aside war and make peace. However, surprisingly, the number of cases that have received the Nobel Peace Prize for this reason is very small. The last case of awarding the prize to long-standing enemies was in 1998 when it was awarded to the leaders of Protestant and Catholic parties in Northern Ireland after the peace agreement. However, selecting such cases can be a gamble because, for example, despite awarding the prize to Israeli and Palestinian leaders for the Oslo Peace Accords in 1994, war and hostility between the two sides continued. If the Nobel Peace Committee bases its selection this year on peace between long-standing enemies, it will undoubtedly consider the peace between the Colombian government and the FARC rebel group, with the Colombian president and the FARC leader being among the main candidates for the prize. Another case could be the nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers signed in 2015, in which case John Kerry and Mohammad Javad Zarif, the foreign ministers of the U.S. and Iran, or officials from both negotiating teams could be nominees for the prize. Dissidents, political prisoners, or exiles who peacefully struggle against authoritarian regimes have been among the most memorable Nobel Peace Prize winners. Notable examples of this selection include Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the Burmese opposition in 1991, Shirin Ebadi, Iranian human rights activist in 2003, and Liu Xiaobo, a Chinese political prisoner in 2010. If the Nobel committee makes such a controversial decision this year, among the most prominent dissidents and critics, Edward Snowden, a former U.S. intelligence employee, or Raif Badawi, a Saudi blogger who was flogged and imprisoned in 2012 for 'insulting Islam,' could be mentioned. Analyzing the Nobel Peace Prizes over the last 30 years leads to the conclusion that institutions align more closely with the foundational ideas of this prize than other nominees. Alfred Nobel, the founder of this prize, emphasized friendship among nations, disarmament, and the establishment of institutions and communities aimed at promoting peace as the main criteria for awarding this prize. Recent examples include the Nobel Prize awarded to the European Union in 2012 and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in 2014. Given that there are 148 institutions on the list of nominees this year, selecting a winner will be very challenging. However, some believe that the international humanitarian organization Save the Children, which is actively working in crisis areas among refugees like Syria and Yemen, is a prominent candidate. Another option could be valuing the international agreement on climate change that took place last year in Paris. As a result, the responsible institutions within the United Nations that brought these negotiations and agreements to fruition could be serious nominees for the Nobel Peace Prize. At the forefront of this group are former presidents and prime ministers whose diplomatic efforts have played a significant role in resolving regional crises. Martti Ahtisaari, former president of Finland, received the prize in 2008 for three decades of work for peace worldwide, and even Jimmy Carter, former U.S. president, received it for his effective actions for peace in the Middle East in 2002. Usually, this prize is awarded to former statesmen, but the Nobel committee broke this tradition in 2009 and awarded the Peace Prize to Barack Obama in his first year of presidency. If the Nobel committee seeks to select a current leader this year, Angela Merkel could be one of the main options. Before last year's Nobel Prize, Merkel's name was mentioned as one of the main candidates due to her government's open-door policy for accepting refugees. The awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2014 to Malala Yousafzai, the youngest recipient of this prize, surprised the world. After being injured in an attack by Taliban agents, she continued her struggle and efforts for girls' education. She shared the Nobel Prize with Kailash Satyarthi, an Indian civil activist who also works in the field of youth education. Usually, Nobel Peace Prize winners from this group are not very famous, making predictions difficult. Among the activists who may be considered this year are Denis Mukwege, a gynecologist from Congo who helps women victims of war and rape in the dangerous conditions of the country's long civil war. Another case could be Svetlana Gannushkina, a Russian human rights activist who founded a non-profit organization to assist refugees.