Why Are Foreign Airlines Leaving Iran?

With the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, most foreign airlines are exiting Iran. However, some other airlines are beginning to increase flights to Iran, such as Arab and Turkish airlines. But why? Three companies, British Airways, KLM, and Air France, are halting their flights to Iran. This is while many airlines that had previously stopped flights to Iran resumed them after the JCPOA. Why has this happened? These three companies have stated that due to a decrease in passengers, flights to Iran are not economically viable. How accurate can this claim be? It can be said that this issue may be somewhat influenced by the decrease in passengers to Iran, but on the other hand, political reasons may also be behind it. Over the past forty years, whenever tensions have arisen between Iran and the West, airlines have been quicker to suspend their operations in Iran than other companies, and among Western airlines, British Airways, KLM, and Air France have done this more than others. The German company Lufthansa has generally done this less than other Western airlines. The decrease in outgoing passengers compared to before the return of U.S. sanctions is a reality we are witnessing. The increase in currency prices and the rise in exit tariffs have made foreign travel inaccessible for many Iranians who previously could afford the costs. Additionally, with negative news from major media outlets, many foreign tourists have also been discouraged from traveling to Iran, and many European tours have reduced their programs to Iran. This situation was the opposite during the nuclear agreement, when the number of foreign passengers and tourists to Iran increased so much that many hotels in Iran announced that all their rooms were booked by foreign tours for months. On the other hand, with the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, the activities of many Western companies in Iran have decreased or stopped. Consequently, the travel of traders, engineers, and technicians from these companies to Iran will significantly decline. These factors lead to far fewer passengers traveling to Iran. However, this formula does not hold for many routes. For example, the routes from Paris to Tehran, Amsterdam to Tehran, and London to Tehran are always among the busiest Western routes to Iran. These routes have always been well-traveled due to being the best transit routes to Iran, even in the worst political conditions in Iran. Many Iranians residing abroad who travel to Iran use these three flight routes to commute between Iran and the U.S. and Europe. These individuals, as most of their income is in foreign currency rather than rials, are not affected by currency prices in Iran. Such passengers can include a wide range, from parents or children visiting their families in Iran to individuals who still conduct business with Iran. Additionally, in such conditions, emigration from Iran usually increases. Despite the significant reduction in Western business activities with Iran, many companies still interact with Iran. Furthermore, Iran's scientific connections with global scientific centers continue, and all these factors lead many to still travel to Iran, making routes like Paris to Tehran or Amsterdam to Tehran the best choice for these individuals. Moreover, KLM and Air France are part of an airline group, and globally we see that if one flight is canceled, another line usually maintains its flights to cover the routes with a lighter aircraft. For example, in the past two years, KLM and Air France have often used wide-body aircraft like the Airbus A330 on their routes to Iran, which has a capacity of over 250 passengers. However, the route from Tehran to Paris or Tehran to Amsterdam could also be covered with a narrow-body aircraft like the Airbus A320, which has a capacity of under 160 passengers. If the main reason for these companies' exit from Iran is the decrease in passenger numbers, these companies could have at least maintained their connection with Iran through one airline from their group with a weekly flight covering under 160 passengers; however, they did not do this. Therefore, it seems that the reasons for these airlines halting operations to Iran are more political than economic. But what will happen with the exit of these airlines from Iran? If the trend continues as before, Arab and Turkish airlines will benefit the most from this opportunity. Between 2010 and 2013, when sanctions on Iran were at their peak, Turkish Airlines increased its flights to Iran. Qatar Airways also followed a similar trend. Compared to those years, there are almost similar factors; for example, between 2010 and 2013, currency prices tripled, banking transactions with Iran were cut off, and many Western companies also ceased their activities in Iran. However, Arab and Turkish airlines increased their coverage of Iran to take full advantage of the weakening of Iranian airlines and the cessation of Western companies' flights to Iran.