Why are Iowa and New Hampshire so important in the U.S. elections?

For about a month, I have been involved in the series "Cult" and have not been able to write anything about the U.S. elections in this blog. However, this has not prevented the audience of Radio Farda's website from missing important news related to these elections. Thanks to the star of this election, Donald Trump, and his continuous news-making, my colleagues at Radio Farda's website have had to write news reports about his actions and comments from time to time. This may not seem very important to Persian-speaking audiences. But for journalists who follow the U.S. elections and remember several recent presidential elections, this volume of election news in Persian media, with about a year left until the elections, is an unusual occurrence. The U.S. presidential election will be held on November 18, 2016! For this election to matter beyond a blog like the one you are reading, it first needs two candidates from the Democratic and Republican parties. The U.S. elections have not yet reached that stage. In fact, those who are participating in debates these days and trying to stay in the headlines with controversial comments are those who ultimately want to be their party's nominee in the elections. To do this, they must attract public opinion in a series of intra-party elections and party gatherings across the United States and eliminate their intra-party rivals; an event that will happen in the coming months. Now that you have read so much news about the U.S. elections and your head is full of comments from Trump, Sanders, Clinton, Jeb Bush, and others, it is worth knowing that the intra-party voting for this election will only begin in about 20 days! This means that until today, with all these debates and controversies, not a single vote has been cast, and everything has been a friendly game. The first official game will be held on February 1 (12 Bahman). From February 12 until the end of the next June, intra-party elections or caucuses will be held state by state. In simple terms, American parties do not handpick their preferred candidate for the elections. Anyone who wants can volunteer, and if they achieve the minimums desired by the television networks in polls, they will participate in the initial debates. The Republican and Democratic parties ask their supporters in each of the 50 states which candidate they prefer. Ultimately, the one who gets the most votes will be the Republican or Democratic party nominee. In the end, a large party convention is held, and state delegates introduce the main candidate with campaign speeches and noise. (Each state has a number of representatives in the Democratic and Republican party conventions based on its population. These representatives will vote for one of the candidates based on the people's vote.) However, to determine the final nominee, it is not necessary for everyone to wait until the end of June. State by state, winners and losers will be determined, and as time goes on, more candidates will withdraw. Gradually, one person will rise to the top, and state by state, elections will be won, and usually, the outcome becomes clear midway. Some even believe that the main competition will be clarified in the first week, perhaps even on the first day! Iowa is, in fact, a very important day for the U.S. elections. On this day, in Iowa, the Democratic and Republican parties will ask their members and supporters whom they would like to take the party's nomination in the final elections. Thus, after all these polls and speculations, it will be the first time it becomes clear how viable these candidates are and how they stand in the public's opinion. The method used in Iowa for this purpose is a specific and somewhat traditional method that exists only in 15 states across the country. This method is not actually an election but a "Caucus." It is held in such a way that on the night of February 12, those who want to voice their opinion in Iowa go to the nearest neighborhood caucus (places like local high school gymnasiums are designated for this by both parties). People gather in these places and discuss, and supporters of each candidate express their opinions and try to convince others why, for example, Sanders is better than Clinton, or why Trump should or should not be voted for. Various arguments are presented in these discussions. For example, one might say Sanders is great but will lose the final election, so they should vote for Clinton. Or Trump is extreme and a disgrace to the Republicans. After the discussions, a vote is taken from the group, and the candidate with the most supporters is declared the winner of that caucus. The opinions from all the caucuses across the state are collected by the end of the night, and the candidate who wins the most caucuses is declared the winner of Iowa. In the Democratic Party, in the last five elections, whoever has won in Iowa has ultimately been chosen as the Democratic nominee. But this is not a rule. For example, Bill Clinton finished third in Iowa in the first election he participated in in 1992. But ultimately, he not only became his party's nominee but also won the election and became president. Among Republicans, in the last two elections, whoever won Iowa ultimately could not become the party's nominee! However, apart from those two instances, for four previous cycles, the Iowa winner ultimately became the Republican nominee. New Hampshire Eight days after Iowa, on February 20, the first intra-party election will be held in New Hampshire. This time, there will be no caucus, and elections will be held where people will cast their votes in the Democratic or Republican boxes. In the Democratic Party in 2008, Obama lost in New Hampshire. But he ultimately became the Democratic nominee. However, from 1996 to 2012, that period was the only time the New Hampshire winner did not ultimately become the Democratic nominee. Among Republicans, in 2000, George Bush had a similar situation, losing in New Hampshire to his Republican rival but ultimately succeeded in becoming the Republican nominee and defeating Al Gore. In the remaining cycles after that, whoever won New Hampshire ultimately became the Republican nominee. The main reason for the importance of these two states in the nomination process is that it shows how serious the supporters of each candidate are in supporting them and whether they are really willing to go out of their homes to vote for them. Of course, the election process will continue after New Hampshire, moving state by state, and by June, people will vote in all 50 states. So far, in the Democratic Party polls, Hillary Clinton is ahead of Sanders in Iowa, and her chances of winning there are high. However, for several weeks, Bernie Sanders has been leading in New Hampshire, and if the results of various polls are accurate, he has a chance to win in the important state of New Hampshire. If this happens, it means Sanders will not lose the final chance and will continue his campaign. In the Republican Party, the situation is not very clear either. Donald Trump is trailing Ted Cruz in Iowa and may lose in that state. Some Republicans hope that with this loss, Trump's showmanship will take a serious hit, and his campaign will collapse like a house of cards. But the reality is that he is ahead in New Hampshire, and if he wins the New Hampshire election, he will have a chance of winning and will not easily withdraw. Whatever the case, between February 12 and 20, the situation of the U.S. presidential election will be freed from these endless speculations, and the final picture will emerge from the ambiguity it is currently facing. And there is not much time left until those days!