Why Are Khamenei and His Associates Worried About the Election Results and Afraid?

The engineering of elections to form two "Royal Assemblies" - which act according to the arbitrary will of the monarch - has been carried out by Ayatollah Khamenei, the IRGC, and the Guardian Council through extensive disqualification of rivals and critics. They have disqualified all prominent figures of reformists and moderates to create a parliament obedient to the monarch's court, ensuring that even if fourth-tier reformists enter the parliament, they pose no threat to the monarch and the corrupt mafia factions of the government. However, Khamenei and the clerics still speak of a U.S. conspiracy to seize the Assembly of Experts and the Islamic Consultative Assembly. What do their words mean? What events are they worried about occurring on March 7? Khamenei's New Positions On November 17, 2016, Khamenei spoke about the enemy's conspiracy - especially the U.S. - and its "evil intentions" for the elections, stating: "The enemy, with a specific plan for the elections, seeks to realize its designed conspiracy." This conspiracy has several components. The first component, according to Khamenei's claims, is: "Their design for the March 7 elections began with undermining the Guardian Council and questioning its decisions, and this council is one of the few fundamental centers in the Islamic system that the Americans have opposed since the victory of the revolution." The second component of the American conspiracy focuses on the Assembly of Experts and changing its composition. The U.S. and the "English radio are instructing the people of Tehran to vote for this person, not to vote for that person!" However, "when you understand what the enemy wants, you act contrary to it; it is obvious." The third component of the enemy's conspiracy is directed at the Islamic Consultative Assembly to form a parliament intimidated by the U.S. Therefore, he warns: "If the parliament is intimidated by the West, intimidated by the U.S., pursuing the dominance of the elitist current, its railroading will be in these directions; they will ruin the country." The headline on the front page of Khamenei's website for this speech is: "A U.S.-Intimidated Parliament Will Ruin the Country." Khamenei's claims include two propositions: Descriptive/Explanatory Proposition: The U.S. seeks to eliminate figures like the members of the Guardian Council from the Assembly of Experts and to form an Islamic Consultative Assembly intimidated by the U.S. Prescriptive/Advisory Proposition: The people should vote against the U.S. wishes in the elections. It is clear that Khamenei refers to the reformist and moderate candidates as "U.S.-intimidated". Protest and Exclusion Vote Against Khamenei's Symbols With the extensive disqualification of candidates for the Assembly of Experts and making this election non-competitive, the only option left for reformists and moderates is "protest votes" and a "no" to Ayatollah Khamenei by eliminating prominent figures appointed by him. However, government censorship does not allow domestic media to explicitly write about the necessity of eliminating Khamenei's symbols, repression, and "Daesh jurisprudence". But on social media - especially Facebook and uncontrollable Telegram channels, currently the main media used by Iranians - there has been significant support for the elimination of the "Triangle of Jim" - Ayatollah Jannati, Mohammad Yazdi, and Misbah Yazdi - in Tehran, the "Triangle of Khorasan" - Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, Alamolhoda, and Saeedi - in Razavi Khorasan, Sadegh Larijani in Mazandaran, Ali Fallahian in Khuzestan, Ahmad Khatami in Kerman, Ayatollah Mohsen Shabestari in East Azerbaijan, Seyyed Youssef Namazi in Isfahan, etc. Reports also indicate that many people in Tehran are verbally expressing their intention not to vote for the "Triangle of Jim". The Clerics' Fear of Not Getting Votes The clerics and the IRGC, aware of the reformists' and moderates' plans and the widespread support on social media, are extremely frightened. They know that if voter turnout is high, Khamenei's associates and the IRGC will be eliminated. According to informed individuals inside the country, the participation rate across the country is about 65%, which may increase with further polarization of the political atmosphere in the coming days. Thus, the clerics and the IRGC, like Khamenei, have reacted to the elimination of the "Triangle of Jim", the "Triangle of Khorasan", etc., and have expressed their fears in various forms. For example, consider the following: First - IRGC Reaction: The Tasnim News Agency - affiliated with the IRGC - published a detailed interview with Ayatollah Qorhi on February 15, 2016, with the headline "The Enemy Has Engineered and Conspired for the Ayatollahs Jannati, Yazdi, and Misbah Not to Get Votes". After praising these three, he emphasized the Supreme Leader's strong support for them, and that Khamenei told Ali Jannati - the Minister of Culture - "You should appreciate your father. He has characteristics that many of our officials lack"; he warned: "The enemy and those internally who do not care about the Islamic Revolution have plans for the Ayatollahs Jannati, Misbah, and Yazdi not to get votes in the Assembly of Experts, but it is necessary and essential that supporters of the Imam and the Leader and true defenders of the Imam of Muslims make every effort to neutralize the conspiracies and electoral engineering that some have carried out against these three gentlemen and with correct measures prevent the enemy's conspiracy from being realized in the Assembly of Experts elections." This interview was widely republished by most principlist media. Second - Sadegh Larijani: Sadegh Larijani is also extremely worried about being eliminated in Mazandaran (refer to the article "Why Are Reformists and Moderates Seeking to Eliminate Sadegh Larijani?"). On February 15, 2016, he expressed his concern about a campaign launched against him and, with blatant lies, claimed that Americans have said all Iranians are extremists. Larijani said: "In the world of politics, it is said that this person is a supporter of the leadership, so let’s launch a campaign for him not to get votes; they think our people pay attention to these words while our people know who serves and who rests and follows the words of the West. The Americans said a few days ago that all Iranians are extremists; we are proud to be this kind of extremist because our words are the same as the people's words." Americans have never referred to all Iranians as extremists. In fact, their media constantly speaks of the positive inclination of most Iranians towards the U.S. They also divide the rulers of the Islamic Republic into extremists and moderates. Why is Larijani telling such a big lie? Because he is afraid of not getting votes. Third - Alamolhoda: Ayatollah Alamolhoda - the Friday prayer leader of Mashhad - said on February 15, 2016, to activists of the Islamic Society of Students at Mashhad universities: "In the past, the discussion for elections was about what characteristics individuals should have to enter the parliament, but today the danger is so close to us that the discussion is about who should not get votes." Fourth - Resalat Newspaper: This newspaper, in an article titled "Hashemi's List or Akbar Ganji's List?" on February 14, 2016, wrote: "Akbar Ganji, who has made the greatest audacity against Imam Khomeini and said that the Imam should be placed in the museum of history, has recently given guidance regarding the Assembly of Experts elections that his followers inside are acting upon. The followers of Akbar Ganji in the chain newspapers have named the list favored by Akbar Ganji as 'The People's Experts' and are promoting it. This list is not based on love for the individuals in the list but rather based on hatred for some other experts according to what Radio America has said on behalf of Akbar Ganji. According to Radio America, Akbar Ganji, in his article titled 'No to Daesh Jurisprudence through the Assembly of Experts Elections', writes: 'What does no to Daesh in the elections mean? Who are the symbols of Daesh?' He then writes: 'The jurisprudence defended by Jannati, Yazdi, Misbah, Ahmad Khatami, Hashemi Shahroudi, etc., is the same Daesh jurisprudence. These individuals should not be voted for in the elections.' Akbar Ganji, who during the so-called chain murders referred to Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani as the 'Red Cloak Eminence', has now issued a ruling against the revolutionaries that voters should not vote for the aforementioned Ayatollahs. Unfortunately, with this ruling, according to reports from yesterday's chain newspapers, a list titled 'The People's Experts' has been presented and has eliminated those individuals. The important question is whether this list is Hashemi's list or Akbar Ganji's? Undoubtedly, Akbar Ganji does not agree with any of the members of this list, not even with Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani. He is thinking of eliminating the most authentic jurists who stand like a mountain against the counter-revolution and the U.S. The Hashemi list should not officially take on this mission." Resalat is also lying because Ganji has repeatedly emphasized that the protest vote includes the main symbols of repression and crime. Rezaei, Darri Najafabadi, Hashemi Shahroudi, and Ali Fallahian are among the main elements of repression and violence, and certainly the protest vote includes them as well (for example, on January 21, 2016, in an interview I had with Mr. Hassan Youssefi Eshkouri on the America TV program 'Horizon', see minutes 39 to 43 where I spoke about the crimes of Rezaei, Darri Najafabadi, Ali Fallahian, Sadegh Larijani, and Hashemi Shahroudi as candidates for the Assembly of Experts). But liars and accusers claim that Ganji said to vote for Rezaei and Darri Najafabadi. Fifth - BBC's Request Not to Vote for the "Triangle of Jim": All principlist media on February 17, 2016, published a unified text with the headline "BBC: Do Not Vote for Jannati, Yazdi, and Misbah". The mentioned text was the column "Dialogue" of February 17 by Hossein Shariatmadari in Kayhan - as follows: "He said: The BBC asked the people of Iran to vote for the joint list of reformists and executives and moderates and seriously to refrain from voting for Mr. Jannati, Yazdi, and Misbah. I said: So the reformists and executives and moderates are approved by the British government, and Mr. Jannati, Yazdi, and Misbah are enemies of the British. He said: Does this not mean anything else? Now we must see whether the reformists and executives and moderates will take a stance against the British government and seek to absolve themselves from this accusation or...? I said: A guy told the doctor; I have been dreaming for a week that I am playing in the Wolf football team. The doctor prescribed some pills and said; take these pills so you won't have these dreams anymore, the guy said; let me take them from tomorrow night. The doctor asked in surprise why?! And the guy said; because tonight is the final!" The Mashregh website - affiliated with the IRGC - also noted in an article titled "BBC Persian's Obvious Attempt to Engineer Votes" that the BBC said: "It is probably enough for 40% of Rouhani's supporters in Tehran province to vote for the 16 candidates opposing Mr. Yazdi, Jannati, and Misbah so that these three will no longer be in the Assembly of Experts." Sixth - Jafar Shajouni: Jafar Shajouni - a member of the Central Council of the Combatant Clergy Society - said in an interview with Tasnim News Agency on February 17, 2016: "The non-election of Ayatollahs Yazdi, Jannati, and Misbah is the enemy's and hypocrites' scenario... The Assembly of Experts is a place for scholars like Allameh Misbah Yazdi, Ayatollah Yazdi, and Ayatollah Jannati, and individuals must have a religious justification for voting and know that they will be accountable for their votes on the Day of Resurrection. The enemy fears the knowledge, faith, sincerity, and sacrifice of Ayatollahs Jannati, Yazdi, and Misbah, and that is why it has engineered the elections against them." Seventh - Police Chief's Statement: Brigadier General Ashtari - the Chief of Police - on February 17, 2016, harshly criticized reformists and rioters and then regarding the elections on March 7 said that the Americans: "are seeking to support Western elements, strengthen extremist currents, and ultimately create a parliament in support of the West. Today we see that the BBC announces who to vote for and who not to vote for." Fraud, Khamenei's Miracle, and the IRGC and Basij to Save If voter turnout in the elections exceeds 65%, the elimination of the "Triangle of Jim", the "Triangle of Khorasan", Sadegh Larijani, Ahmad Khatami, Ali Fallahian, etc., will be certain. Ayatollah Khamenei, the IRGC, and the Basij have no choice but to commit fraud to ensure the presence of Jannati, Yazdi, Misbah, Ahmad Khatami, Ali Fallahian, Shabestari, Sadegh Larijani, the Friday prayer leaders of Isfahan and Qom, etc., in the Assembly of Experts. One way is for Khamenei, with an "unofficial oral ruling", to tell the "National Election Headquarters", which consists of only a few people, that the presence of these individuals in the Assembly of Experts is necessary for the preservation of the regime. In this case, the main question will be how Hassan Rouhani - whose government is present in the National Election Headquarters - will react to this ruling. Hassan Rouhani opposes fraud and knows that this will be detrimental to him and his government. But what will he do with the Supreme Leader's ruling? Hasn't acceptance of the Supreme Leader's ruling always been a cornerstone of the Islamic Republic? Here, the fundamental contradiction of the Islamic Republic with democracy and human rights reveals itself in a different way. In the extremely dangerous and warlike conditions of the Middle East, all eyes are now on two elections in Iran and their results. Committing fraud in these circumstances will have many consequences for Iran and Iranians. But Khamenei, the IRGC, and the clerics, who consider "the preservation of the regime as the most important obligation", will they reduce the regime to clerics "who suppress with Daesh jurisprudence" and accept the unintended and unpredictable consequences of it?