Why are the death toll figures from the protests in Iran so different?
The protests that began on December 28 (7 Dey) in response to economic problems in Iran quickly turned into nationwide anti-government demonstrations and escalated significantly after a call from Reza Pahlavi, the former crown prince, on January 8 (18 Dey, 2026).
Security forces initiated a bloody crackdown against street protesters. Simultaneously, internet access in Iran was almost completely cut off, and telephone communications were also restricted; a move that unprecedentedly limited independent reporting and the flow of verifiable information from within the country.
Since the communication blackout, media outside Iran, human rights groups, and activist networks have provided very different estimates of the death toll.
These estimates, often based on scattered witness accounts, leaked narratives, anonymous sources, medical personnel, or activist channels, have quickly reached into the thousands. So far, the highest figure mentioned is the potential death of 20,000 people, first reported by CBS News citing sources inside and outside Iran.
State media initially spoke of a "significant number" of deaths among protesters and security forces without providing figures for the deceased protesters. On January 14, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Fox News that the death toll was "in the hundreds." Then, on January 17, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, acknowledged that "several thousand" had been killed in the violence, which he attributed to "rioters and seditionists."
Ultimately, on February 1, the National Security Council, an agency under the Iranian Minister of Interior, announced that a total of 3,117 people were killed during the protests on January 8 and 9.
So far, with the continuation of nearly complete communication restrictions, independent verification remains extremely difficult, fueling claims of vastly different figures. Methodologies vary, and several organizations providing death tolls are based outside Iran.
Some figures are compiled using a case-by-case documentation method. Others rely on anonymous sources or generalizations. As a result, reported numbers vary, and there is no independent mechanism to confirm a definitive figure.
Despite this uncertainty, it can still be said that this period has been the deadliest phase of violence in Iran since the establishment of the Islamic Republic. It is believed that most individuals were killed between January 8 and 12 (18 to 22 Dey).
The news agency of the Human Rights Activists in Iran (Hrana), based in Washington, is one of the few sources that continuously and daily publishes statistics related to the recent protests. This organization states: "These figures are based solely on verified case information, and given the internet cut, communication restrictions, and the difficulty of accessing independent information, the actual numbers may be significantly higher than these figures."
Hrana reports that as of January 20, it has confirmed the deaths of 4,519 people and the arrest of at least 26,000 individuals. According to Hrana, at least 190 of the deceased were security forces.
Hrana also states that it is still investigating reports of 9,049 other deceased individuals, indicating that the final numbers will likely be significantly higher.
The Norway-based Iran Human Rights Organization, which had been confirming death toll figures since the beginning of the protests, announced on January 19 that it would refrain from publishing daily statistics until sufficient documentation is obtained. This human rights organization stated: "Given the scope of this crime and severe communication restrictions, including internet shutdowns, it is currently impossible to provide accurate figures according to the standards of the Iran Human Rights Organization, which includes multi-layer verification and confirmation from at least two independent sources."
On January 14, in its last statistical report, which it described as "based on documents received from credible sources," this organization confirmed the deaths of at least 3,428 protesters. It noted that the announced figure only included cases that were directly or independently verified and aligned with hospital and morgue records.
Mahmoud Amiri-Moghaddam, the director of the Iran Human Rights Organization, emphasized: "Information received from witnesses, families, and other citizens, along with other available evidence, suggests that the number of deaths may even exceed the highest estimates reported by the media."
The Kurdish human rights organization Hengaw announced on January 13 that it had confirmed the deaths of over 2,500 individuals across Iran by that time. This organization stated that the announced figure relied on field reports and documentation from "independent and reliable sources" and added that its verification unit, which daily reviews the identities of the deceased, had confirmed the identities of 80 deceased individuals.
Like other groups based outside Iran, Hengaw stated that the communication blackout has made verification difficult.
Iran International TV in London also reported on January 13 that "information received from a source close to the Supreme National Security Council, two sources in the Presidential Office, and narratives from several sources in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps" indicated that at least 12,000 people were killed on January 8 and 9. The narratives of the audience were also introduced as another source. Iran International added that verifying this information remains difficult under the communication blackout.
CBS also reported on January 13 that two sources, including one inside Iran, stated that at least 12,000 and "possibly up to 20,000" people were killed.
The Times of Britain reported on January 17 that doctors present at the scene estimated that at least 16,500 protesters had died and 330,000 were injured. The newspaper reported that figures collected from eight major ophthalmology hospitals and 16 emergency departments indicated that between 16,500 and 18,000 people had been killed.
Reuters reported on January 18, citing "an Iranian official in the region," that officials confirmed the deaths of at least 5,000 people, including about 500 security forces. The official stated that "the final numbers are not expected to increase significantly."
The Islamic Republic has previously rejected Reuters' reports. The agency reported during the protests of Aban 1398 (2019) that about 1,500 people were killed; a figure that Iranian officials called "absolute lies." Amnesty International later stated that the number of identified individuals was 324. Amnesty International emphasized that the actual number of deaths in Aban 98 was likely much higher than this number. The Iranian Ministry of Interior ultimately estimated the number of deaths that year at 200 to 225.
What has the Iranian government said about the announced figures?
On February 1, the National Security Council, an agency under the Iranian Minister of Interior, stated that a total of 3,117 people were killed during the protests on January 8 and 9. This is the first time an official figure regarding the number of deaths has been announced since the beginning of the nationwide protests.
The council stated that 2,427 of the deceased were "innocent people and guardians of order and security" and referred to them as "martyrs," describing the perpetrators of these deaths as "terrorists." The statement did not mention the identities of the other 690 deceased individuals.
Earlier, the Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, published figures on the deaths of security forces. This agency reported on January 11 that 114 security forces had been killed across the country (excluding Tehran) and described the number of deaths as "significant."
IRIB and other domestic media have also confirmed the clashes and the deaths of individuals.
Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, on January 14, described reports of 12,000 or more deaths as "baseless" and accused Israel of deliberately exaggerating the death toll to provoke U.S. intervention. He claimed that "terrorists" killed civilians and police to "fuel chaos" and draw Donald Trump, the President of the United States, into conflict, adding that the actual figure was "in the hundreds."
Three days later, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that "rioters and seditionists" had killed "several thousand" and attributed the unrest to Trump, foreign intelligence agencies, Israel, and "misled youth."
The Iranian Legal Medicine Organization, which operates under the judiciary, described the reports from foreign media about the number of deaths in the protests as "foreign claims" and "fabrications."
The spokesperson for the Iranian judiciary called the report of 12,000 deaths in media outlets he described as "Zionist" a "complete lie" and stated that it significantly differed from the "real statistics." Asghar Jahangir held those who incited the public to unrest responsible for any deaths. He also denied reports of charging families for the delivery of corpses, stating that forensic processes are free.
The lack of official and transparent reporting, restricted access to free media, and widespread internet shutdowns have not only severely complicated the news reporting on the protests but have also made it extremely difficult to accurately assess the scale of the crackdown and the number of casualties and injuries. In such conditions, discrepancies between published figures can be significant and, in some cases, based on estimates and conjectures.