Why Budget Discussions Are Important for Households and Businesses?

Discussions around the budget have gained newsworthy significance in recent years, indicating a more precise awareness within society and among economic actors regarding the most important annual document of the national economy, which is viewed positively. However, you may not realize how significantly this document impacts your economic life. If we move past the excessive details of institutional budgets, we must focus on the following points in the budgeting process for the upcoming year: Forecasting oil sales: The government's forecast regarding the number of barrels sold will precisely indicate our standing. We must remember that due to the obstacles faced by the government in selling oil, the sales figure will be much lower than the current budget figure of 2.4 million barrels per day, with the most optimistic scenario suggesting sales of half this amount, so we must scrutinize this number closely. The selling price of each barrel of crude oil: The official budget figure for the sale of crude oil this year is set at $55 per barrel. The final forecast for this figure in the next year's budget is another indicator that reveals many matters, and it is worth noting that predicting whether the price of oil will be $65 or any other number is likely to be easy and perhaps impossible. Anyone who can design an accurate model for estimating oil prices or stocks could likely become one of the wealthiest people in the world in a matter of days; thus, this is fundamentally a number for planning and not anything else, but it is an important figure that reflects the narrative of Iran's economic decision-makers. Revenue from oil in the budget: By multiplying these two numbers, the actual weight of the government's dollar revenue will be determined, which will certainly be less than this year's figure. What is the next step to understand the budget's impact? The next step to comprehend the budget's effect on our livelihoods is the exchange rate calculated in the budget, which constitutes 36% of the total government budget in rials. If this number is calculated with a higher or lower exchange rate, it will directly affect the lives of wage earners and business owners, and the government will ultimately have to adopt various policies, whether through budget deficits and printing money or loosening inflation controls in markets, extending the duration of salary payments, or adopting impulsive methods that we have encountered in recent years, to align itself with this number. The positive aspect is that the government can flexibly allocate its rial income from the oil company or the National Development Fund to reduce pressure on the people, provided that a more serious decision is made for this purpose. It should also be noted that one should not overly pursue or trust the increase in budget numbers for various sectors, as intra-sectoral disputes for obtaining real budgets rather than paper ones will intensify in the coming year. Taxes: The projected revenue numbers from taxes are crucial for understanding the conditions for controlling household or business economies. In the 2018 budget, a 47% share was allocated for tax revenues, which includes taxes on wages, wealth, companies, value-added, or professions, and taxes on imported goods, all of which significantly affect the economic lives of all Iranians. Therefore, those planning for their livelihoods and businesses will pay close attention to these numbers in the budget. Certainly, the government's tax policies this year have been very sensitive and newsworthy, and next year, by closely examining the projected shares in the sections of organizations managing institutions and businesses, as well as the Astan Quds Razavi and other foundations, one can decode the tax impact point considering the new conditions in the country. Another important point in next year's budget is the amount of state-owned enterprises' privatization for raising material resources, which must be carefully considered, especially given the unsuccessful execution experience in previous years and past governments, which is another sensitive point for the lives and livelihoods of households and wage earners. Wage earners and business owners in the legislative, judicial, defense, public security, education and research, health, culture and tourism, agriculture, media, natural resources, housing, environment, industry, technology and communications, transportation, and religious affairs sectors must pay close attention to the projected numbers in next year's budget and the differences from the numbers stated in the current budget bill and law to adjust their economic and livelihood plans accordingly. In this context, the approval of the 2019 budget was based on a '5800 toman dollar', predicting 'a decrease in Iran's oil sales to less than half' in the 2019 budget.