Why Conservatives Want to Vote for Raisi

The newspaper Shargh poses the question, "Why do conservatives want to vote for Raisi?" It writes: "While the Popular Front of Islamic Revolution Forces (JAMNA) is set to announce its five final candidates for the elections on Thursday, April 6, it has been reported that Ebrahim Raisi will announce his decision regarding his candidacy on April 7, just a day later." According to this newspaper, one of Raisi's advantages for the conservative faction is his "ability to attract the ideological base critical of and opposed to Hassan Rouhani" and "his capacity as someone who can mend the internal rifts within JAMNA and even attract some of Ahmadinejad's supporters." "Raisi's relative anonymity compared to other conservative candidates is also among the factors that, according to Shargh, has made him a 'fresh and unused option in the social and political space' for the conservative faction, allowing them to better shape their image in society and largely prevent negative social portrayals of him by rivals." The newspaper Etemad, in its April 5 issue, headlined "One Hundred Challenges for Iran in 96" (the Persian calendar year), stating that according to "future studies reports on political and social conditions," structural economic reforms, water supply crises, and unemployment top the list of challenges facing Iran in 96. Etemad writes that the "One Hundred Challenges of 96" is the result of research by the Future Studies Institute, which has been conducting future studies since 2014 in collaboration with the Strategic Research Center of the Presidency and publishes the results of these studies at the beginning of each year regarding the upcoming year. In the latest report from the Future Studies Institute for 96, in addition to the "necessity of structural economic reforms," "water supply crises," and "unemployment," systemic corruption, hopelessness about the future, social capital and public trust, and the crisis of dust storms make up the top seven issues for 96. Etemad notes that in 95, "economic recession/boom," "disagreements at the macro levels of governance on key issues," "the sustainability of the JCPOA," "the fate of the presidential elections in the United States," "Iran's regional confrontation with Saudi Arabia," "oil prices and their global value," and "inflation" were recognized as the seven key issues by the Future Studies Institute. It states that "it seems the government has managed to reduce the issue of disagreements at the macro level of governance and the sustainability of the JCPOA and issues such as relations with Saudi Arabia or oil prices from the top seven issues to significantly lower importance; however, economic issues remain at the forefront of the challenges for 96." This study also considers "the inefficiency of the judicial system, the 96 elections, and macro governance disagreements" as the top three political issues in 96, while "the necessity of economic reforms, unemployment, and poverty" are the top three economic issues, and "systemic corruption, hopelessness about the future, and social capital and public trust" are the top three social issues, with the water supply crisis and its consequences and the crisis of dust storms being the top three environmental issues predicted for 96. Social and economic issues in 96, like the previous year, are among the most numerous challenges facing the country, but political issues have moved from sixth place in 95 to third place in 96. Additionally, while "last year 7% of issues were environmental, placing them in eighth place, this year 10% of issues are environmental risks, placing them fourth among the issues of 96." Disagreements within the government regarding cultural issues, challenges for health service users and patients, inflation, marriage issues, teachers' issues, protests, ethnic challenges, identity conflicts, changes in family patterns, changes in disease patterns and the spread of chronic diseases, increased disclosures and leaks of information, women's legal rights issues, and increased sexual risk-taking are also counted among the one hundred challenges of 96. The newspaper Etemad also notes that "it should not be forgotten that the weight of each of these groups in this study is not equal. For example, although environmental issues generally constitute 10% of the issues, environmental risks such as the water supply crisis and its consequences, dust storms, air pollution, or deforestation rank among the top thirty issues of 96, and their importance is greater than issues such as societal polarization or military security in this list and, in other words, will be more challenging." The newspaper Shahrvand reported in its Tuesday issue about "Raisi's green light to JAMNA," stating: "Unconfirmed reports indicate that Ebrahim Raisi has expressed readiness to participate in the elections." This newspaper notes that on Tuesday, the news agency Tasnim, close to conservatives, quoted political analyst Parviz Amini as saying that Ebrahim Raisi, the custodian of the Astan Quds Razavi, is determined to run for the presidential elections. It also mentioned that simultaneously, Mohammad Hosseini, a member of the board of directors of the Popular Front of Islamic Revolution Forces, stated in an interview that "the Popular Front has discussed with Mr. Raisi, as with other individuals, regarding the presidential elections and has received his program." The newspaper Shahrvand emphasizes that "it seems Ebrahim Raisi enjoys favorable support among young conservatives" and recalls that "in a voting process among participants in the first national meeting of the Popular Front of Islamic Revolution, Raisi received the majority of votes, even ranking higher than Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Saeed Jalili." Concurrently, the newspaper Etemad reports that conservatives are set to introduce their five final candidates this Thursday, noting that on Tuesday, "conflicting reports emerged regarding the drafting of presidential programs and resumes for Ebrahim Raisi and Parviz Fattah, two potential candidates" of the conservative faction, and that "speculations about Ebrahim Raisi's candidacy have been increasing rapidly in recent days." According to this newspaper, "if the reports regarding Raisi's confirmed candidacy by JAMNA are accurate, various scenarios for his participation have been proposed, indicating that his supporters have also considered his cabinet, and one of the scenarios involves the official announcement of Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the mayor of Tehran and a politician from Mashhad, as Raisi's first vice president." The newspaper also mentions that "another electoral scenario for Raisi is his role as a unifying figure among conservatives. With consensus on Raisi, he would refrain from announcing his position until the registration process begins, and at the time of registration, based on his standing among conservatives, he would support a candidate to prevent fragmentation among conservatives and their multiple candidates." Conservative-aligned newspapers have heavily criticized Hassan Rouhani, the eleventh government, and the JCPOA in their Tuesday issues. Kayhan, in its front page, emphasizes what it calls "America's concern over Iran's economic prosperity if the current situation changes," explicitly labeling Hassan Rouhani's government as the one desired by the U.S., stating: "A review of recent analyses by American officials leaves no doubt that their desire in the upcoming elections in Iran is to maintain the status quo, but what is hidden between the lines of these analyses is their fear and panic over the rise of revolutionary management." This newspaper, in its editorial titled "Testing the Tested is a Mistake," writes: "Almost four years have passed since the beginning of the eleventh government. From the time when the president and his entourage made more than 1,300 colorful promises to the people and indicated in every possible way that they would fulfill their debt to the people, but "four years after those days, the deadline for promises has arrived, yet there is no news of harvest and product. The government's farm is so barren and dry that it seems no cultivation has taken place, and since the day after the elections, all promises have been forgotten," and "in such conditions, logically, hope for renewed trust would be contrary to logic." The newspaper Vatan-e Emruz, owned by Mehrdad Bazrpash, who is also a potential candidate from the conservative faction, emphasizes in its front page that "neither production nor employment" and other economic problems "can be solved with the continuation of the current government's policies." This newspaper also accuses Hassan Rouhani of "insisting on pure lies" and writes that "Hassan Rouhani has again claimed that the JCPOA has lifted the shadow of war from Iran. He stated on Tuesday during a New Year meeting with some executive managers that the JCPOA has lifted the shadow of war from the country and has also broken the chains of sanctions against Iran." The newspaper Javan, close to the Revolutionary Guards, also reported on its front page that "while from the day after the nuclear agreement, the U.S. has continuously obstructed the JCPOA, and the U.S. ruling body, in addition to violating the JCPOA, is still contemplating imposing new sanctions against Iran, Hassan Rouhani says: 'Our goal in the JCPOA was to lift the shadow of threats from the country and also to break the chains of unjust and imposed sanctions, and all of these have been achieved.'" This newspaper emphasizes that "these claims" by Hassan Rouhani come at a time when previously "senior members of the eleventh government, including the Central Bank Governor, the Minister of Economy, and the Head of the Atomic Energy Organization, have repeatedly emphasized the bad faith of the West and stated that the achievements of the JCPOA are summed up in the famous phrase 'almost nothing.'" Ali Khorram, a former diplomat, however, in an interview with the government-aligned newspaper Iran, emphasized that "the achievements of the JCPOA are politically overlooked." This former diplomat stated: "The world's planning for Iran until 2013 was such that oil sales would reach zero, and then the Security Council's sanctions committee would implement the oil-for-food program for Iran," and "from an economic perspective, in 2013 when Mr. Rouhani came to power, Iran's oil exports had reached 800,000 barrels per day, and it was expected that within six months, this figure would drop to zero. That is, the sanctions were intended to bind Iran's hands so that it could not sell even a barrel of oil." The newspaper Iran also quoted Ali Khorram as saying: "The nuclear agreement was reached at the best possible time due to the change of government in the U.S., as the positioning of the new U.S. government indicates that if negotiations had reached the Trump era, not only would there have been no possibility of resolution, but Iran and the U.S. would have entered into much more serious challenges, and perhaps war would have been the alternative to negotiations." This government-aligned newspaper also rejected the unofficial promises of some potential presidential candidates to "multiply cash subsidies several times," stating: "For cash subsidies to quadruple, the targeted revenue must reach 192 trillion tomans, which requires a several hundred percent increase in energy carriers such as gasoline, gas, electricity, etc." The newspaper Khorasan reported, quoting Morteza Rahmani Movahed, head of the Central Coordination Headquarters for Travel Services, about "the registration of over 59 million overnight stays in the country and over 94 million visits to historical, natural, and cultural sites during the Nowruz holidays." This government official noted that "by the end of the thirteenth of Farvardin, 59 million 343 thousand 678 overnight stays had been recorded in the country, and over 94 million visits to the country's cultural heritage sites had been registered," adding that this year's Nowruz slogan was "Different services with respect to the citizens' rights charter for the satisfaction of the people," and that "the services provided to travelers during Nowruz were carried out under the umbrella of respect, kindness, and the efforts of 500,000 active personnel in the fields of rescue, guidance, and services, and took on meaning with different services while respecting various customs and cultures." The head of the Central Coordination Headquarters for Travel Services also stated that during the Nowruz holidays of 96, "some regions of Iran became tourist destinations, and the diversity of accommodations allowed people to visit rural areas more." Simultaneously, Nader Rahmani, head of the Traffic Control Police, told the newspaper Farhikhtegan about the road fatalities in the country during Nowruz 96, stating: "The situation of road accidents from March 15 to April 2, 96 shows that the number of fatalities from road accidents during Nowruz compared to the same period last year has decreased by 122%. This reduction indicates a significant change in the traffic culture of the people." The newspaper Farhikhtegan, however, reminded that "among all the news that has been heard during Nowruz, one has been that in the past, every 60 minutes, one person lost their life on the country's roads, while this statistic during this year's Nowruz has increased to 71 minutes. Although every year there is a significant decrease in road fatalities, the number of deaths from road accidents in our country is still higher than in other countries, and Iran ranks first in road fatalities." This newspaper also reported: "On the second day of Farvardin 96, the news of 145 deaths on the country's roads instilled fear in the hearts of the people, with unofficial statistics indicating that in the first three days of World War II, only 13 people died, while in the early days of Nowruz, hundreds lost their lives." Farhikhtegan noted that "the highest hours of accidents occurred between 6 PM and midnight. More than 50% of accidents occurred within a 30-kilometer radius of cities, and in 45% of cases, the cause of Nowruz accidents was vehicle overturning, with 80% of the causes of vehicle overturns attributed to driver fatigue and drowsiness and weather conditions and road slipperiness. Violations of speed limits, illegal overtaking, inattention, and failure to maintain proper distance were among other factors contributing to road accidents during Nowruz."