Why Did Macron Take a 'Political Gamble' by Dissolving the French Parliament?

The results of the recent European Parliament elections have not only raised questions about the future leadership of the European Union but have also had repercussions in the national politics of many member states, including France, which has seen the most surprising political action from its leader so far. Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, announced the dissolution of the French Parliament and the holding of new elections after his party secured a significant second place behind the far-right National Rally party in the European Parliament elections. Just before this announcement, Jordan Bardella, a young French politician and the leader of the far-right party, called for early parliamentary elections. In a televised speech on June 10, Macron stated that after consultations mandated by Article 12 of the Constitution, he decided to dissolve the French Parliament and return the choice of the next parliament to the French people through new elections. Following Macron's decree for early parliamentary elections, the first round will take place on June 30 and the second round on July 7. The announcement of the dissolution came at a time when centrist parties managed to maintain a majority in the European Parliament, but far-right parties achieved significant victories in Italy, Austria, and France. This is the first time in nearly three decades that a French president has made such a decision. Macron urged the French to make the 'right choice' in the early elections. Previously, in 1997, Jacques Chirac, the then-president from the center-right party, dissolved the French Parliament, paving the way for the election of a socialist prime minister. With the dissolution of the French Parliament, the far-right party is now closer than ever to seizing power, and it is possible that the prime minister elected from the upcoming parliamentary elections will be from this party. Although Macron's party did not win the European Parliament elections, he was not legally obligated to dissolve the French Parliament and redistribute power. Therefore, media outlets have described Macron's surprising decision as a 'political gamble.' In the early hours following the announcement of the dissolution, a fundamental question arose: what calculations led him to choose this option and dissolve a parliament where his party held a relative majority? If Macron has considered the historical precedent of this action in contemporary French history, he surely knows that dissolving the parliament may affect his executive power. This is while there are still three years left until the end of his presidency in 2027. The main possible motivation that some observers and experts have suggested for Macron's 'political gamble' is to shock the left wing of France. The left wing managed to gain a significant number of votes in the previous parliamentary elections, and since Macron's party did not achieve an absolute majority in parliament, the lack of cooperation from the left with the government's proposals has strengthened their mutual rival, the center-right and far-right coalition. Some observers believe that by dissolving the parliament, Macron is now calling on leftist parties to decide on forming an absolute majority against the far-right and center-right. However, another group of observers speculates that Macron has taken such an action to create an image of 'political courage.' In 1968, when protests erupted against the government of Charles de Gaulle, de Gaulle dissolved the parliament so that the political crisis could ultimately be resolved by a vote of the people. The result was that French voters strengthened de Gaulle's position in parliament in the early elections. If Macron does not achieve a similar outcome to de Gaulle, at least many will consider this decision 'courageous.' A second possible motivation for Macron's recent decision is to demonstrate the 'incompetence' of the far-right party if it wins the parliamentary elections and gains the prime ministership of France. If the far-right party comes to power with a parliamentary majority during Macron's presidency, the country's problems will confront this party one after another. The far-right party's lack of executive experience may lead to its inability to solve issues, significantly weakening its social base in the next presidential election. If the far-right party takes the prime ministership, it will no longer be able to play the role of 'opposition' and 'critic of the status quo' in the upcoming presidential election and will be considered responsible for part of the current situation. For this reason, it seems that Macron hopes that by holding early parliamentary elections, power will not completely fall into the hands of the far-right party in the next presidential election. During Chirac's time, despite holding early parliamentary elections, his party was able to win in the next presidential election. Macron's unprecedented decision will, in any case, be a risky 'gamble' because, at the end of these three years, the far-right party's argument that the country's problems will not be solved until it gains full power may seem logical and credible to the majority of voters.