Why is Khamenei Concerned About 1398?

A significant part of Ayatollah Khamenei's remarks during a meeting with families of martyrs from the war and military operations in Syria was dedicated to warning about a U.S. conspiracy in 1398. He urged officials to work harder, stating: "The U.S. government's plan has been exposed, and it was supposed to create division, conflict, and group wars in the country through sanctions and anti-security actions, drawing some people to the streets, calling it a 'hot summer.' However, to the enemies' dismay, this summer was one of the best summers... Although the enemy's plan has been exposed, everyone must remain vigilant because the U.S. is a wicked and cunning enemy and may intend to deceive in order to create turmoil in 1397 but may have a plan for 1398." In line with his anti-American perspective and conspiracy theory, he sought to attribute various social and occupational protests in Iran to a U.S. political project he referred to as 'hot summer.' He claimed that U.S. officials had a plan to prevent the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Republic, without specifying which senior U.S. officials or intelligence agencies made such claims. Trump and U.S. Secretaries of State and Defense have at least publicly stated that they want to change the behavior of the Islamic Republic, and their sanctions aim to bring the Islamic Republic back to the negotiating table for a new agreement that would halt Iran's missile development program and completely strip it of uranium enrichment capabilities. This administration, like previous U.S. administrations, has a desire and interest in changing the Islamic Republic and welcomes it, with signs indicating that the Trump administration is actively engaged in actions favoring a transformation in Iran's power structure. However, the existing evidence is insufficient to definitively conclude that there is a plan for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. It is true that Trump has speculated about the difficulty of the regime's survival after the widespread protests in December 1396, but these speculations are more interpretable within the framework of psychological warfare and the internal reaction to political forces critical of the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA. Khamenei's reference likely pertains to comments made by John Bolton, the U.S. National Security Advisor, who stated before assuming this position at a Mojahedin-e Khalq meeting that the Islamic Republic should not reach its 40th year. Within the framework of the dominant power's distorting and reductive approach, which has not recognized any protests over the past four decades and attributed their origins to outside borders, the 'hot summer' project also fits within this framework and lacks credibility. In fact, this formulation represents the regime's security scenario for suppressing protests and delegitimizing them, which has been combined with concerns over the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and the resumption of unilateral U.S. sanctions. Therefore, Khamenei's warning about 'U.S. government conspiracies in 1398' can be seen as a reflection of his concerns expressed in a reversed manner. Apparently, the year in which he completes 30 years of leadership and enters the fourth decade is so sensitive that he has directly intervened in the preparation of next year's budget, and the government has delayed sending the budget to the parliament to accommodate his opinions. It seems that the regime's plan to overcome the current challenge is to endure until the end of Donald Trump's presidency, and as long as he is in the White House, the costs of negotiation and a potential agreement are assessed to be so high that they cannot be borne without changes beyond the limits of tolerance in foreign policy and its domestic implications. Thus, in this analytical and strategic framework, 1398 holds key importance, which must compel society and regime forces to endure hardships. The situation in 1399, when the U.S. presidential elections are held, is relatively easier. Therefore, Khamenei is anxious that the increasing cumulative effects of sanctions, alongside the government's inefficacy in managing economic affairs, will not allow his expectations for the acceptance of austerity policies to materialize. This fear and concern form the foundation of his warning, targeting both the people and internal factions of the regime to prevent any rift or division. A similar situation occurred during Barack Obama's second presidential term, when heavy sanctions had fragmented regime forces in the face of a crisis and left society in despair, leading to the imposition of a heroic flexibility on Khamenei. This time, he seeks to prevent the repetition of that experience by emphasizing the endless enmity of the U.S. and creating a narrative around a resistant economy. His increased interventions in the executive branch, where for the first time the national budget is to be finalized and presented to the parliament with the leader's opinions, reflects the regime's vulnerability to the current dire economic situation. However, his expectations will only materialize when a significant portion of the regime's forces and the people accept the requirements and consequences of a confrontational policy and refusal to negotiate, closing their eyes to hardships and accepting the leader's calculations regarding changes in the future. It may be understandable to overlook Rouhani's weaknesses in light of his collaborations and repeated retreats within this framework. However, the worsening economic situation and the exhaustion of a significant portion of social classes who have lost their ability to endure problems pose a major obstacle to fulfilling Khamenei's expectations. The Islamic Republic is experiencing the greatest crisis of its existence, and the expansion of occupational protests under specific conditions could lay the groundwork for a large and uncontrollable political movement. Therefore, Khamenei's concern about 1398, the preparations for it, and the increase in the costs of opposition and non-cooperation should be analyzed from this perspective, as he attempts to maintain the current political situation in the fragile and volatile circumstances through political, security, managerial, and propaganda tools.