Why Should We Not Expect Negotiations to Revive the JCPOA Until After the U.S. Elections?

The term of Ebrahim Raisi is coming to an end, with his government failing to make any progress in reviving the JCPOA or, as his officials call it, "negotiations to lift sanctions," after three years of unsuccessful talks. Masoud Pezeshkian, alongside Javad Zarif, whom he appointed as his foreign policy advisor, promised constructive dialogue with the world and efforts to lift sanctions stemming from the nuclear program during his election campaign; promises that played a significant role in his victory against a rival who defended the "status quo." Now, less than a week after Pezeshkian's election victory, John Kirby, the White House National Security spokesperson, firmly states that the arrival of a new president in Tehran will not change Washington's approach towards Iran, and from the U.S. perspective, the Islamic Republic remains the same actor that supports Russia in targeting Ukraine, groups like Hamas and Hezbollah for terrorist actions, and the Houthis in Yemen for attacking ships in the Red Sea. Kirby's remarks come after Zarif called for "recognition of Iran's role in the world" following Pezeshkian's victory, stating on Twitter that "the world must listen to us and engage with us." However, few are likely surprised by Kirby's statements, as the internal obstacles on both sides currently outweigh their potential desire to resolve Iran's nuclear file. The White House has rejected the resumption of nuclear negotiations after Iran's elections. Domestic issues in the U.S. are also a factor as President Joe Biden's administration approaches its final months, with another election in the U.S. scheduled for November, and possibly a new president in the White House by early next year. Donald Trump, Biden's main rival and former president, is the same individual who decided in 2018 to withdraw the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, leaving nothing of the JCPOA but a name. Despite Biden's emphasis before the 2020 presidential election that he would return to the nuclear agreement if victorious, internal obstacles in both Iran and the U.S. have prevented this, and Washington will witness its second president in Iran since then, with no resolution on reviving that agreement, which has faced repeated criticism from opponents, particularly Trump. Consequently, while Pezeshkian and Zarif's presence opens a window of hope for actors seeking a diplomatic resolution to Iran's nuclear file, internal issues, especially in the U.S., prevent Biden's administration from exposing itself to such a risky challenge just months before the elections. Furthermore, Biden is already facing unprecedented pressure from his party members to withdraw from the presidential race, and no one knows precisely whether Biden will be the Democratic candidate against Trump in November or if another Democrat will oppose him. As a result, given that the Biden administration has managed the same situation for four years, it sees little advantage in entering a challenge just months before the elections, where the definite costs far outweigh any potential benefits. On the Iranian side, few welcome the idea of reviving the JCPOA and discussions on this matter at this time. Zarif, who has now become Pezeshkian's right-hand man and is likely the most important figure in his foreign policy, reached an understanding with the U.S. during the administration when Biden was vice president, which was then called a "historic agreement." However, as Trump promised, the lifespan of the JCPOA ended with the departure of Obama and his vice president Biden, and in 2018, the then U.S. president withdrew from the agreement. Given that polls show Trump has a significant chance of returning to the White House, it is natural that no one in Tehran would risk agreeing with a government whose future in power is uncertain. Moreover, the experience of Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA demonstrated that such an event cannot be overlooked. Therefore, regardless of who ultimately wins the U.S. elections, officials of the Islamic Republic and even Pezeshkian's government, which speaks of "constructive engagement" with the world, will likely prefer to wait for the election results before deciding on dialogue with a Democratic or Republican government; although there is no guarantee that negotiations will take place, and it must be considered that merely expressing desires does not mean they can be realized, and ultimately, there may be no agreement at all. What is clear is that the risk of an agreement not lasting with a government whose longevity is uncertain is far greater than Tehran's desire to pursue quick dialogue and revive the JCPOA. Thus, it seems that no significant developments will occur in this file in the coming months, and everyone will await the outcome of the presidential elections in the U.S.