Why the Death of Rafsanjani is Important?

The death of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is an unexpected and highly significant event for Iran today. Although the head of the Expediency Discernment Council was 82 years old and had seen a decrease in his political influence in recent years (after the 2009 elections), he was still considered a distinct political player; an actor who served as an important pillar for a diverse range of political forces active in the political system. The death of someone who can be regarded as the second most significant political figure in the Islamic Republic—both during the leadership of Ayatollah Khomeini and the second phase of the regime—holds importance for several reasons (including the five points below). 1. The loss of a pragmatic leader in the Islamic Republic: Hashemi Rafsanjani was a prominent figure among the pragmatists in the system based on the rule of the jurist. He was the most important political actor who linked governance in the Islamic Republic with realism and expediency. The suppression of critics and political opponents after the establishment of the regime and during the war with Iraq, efforts to end the prolonged and exhausting war, empathy with social development and opening up the social space while ignoring political development during his presidency, a positive approach to interaction with the West after the establishment and stabilization of the political system, and efforts to realize the JCPOA are just some of the key highlights of this claim. From this perspective, the death of a pragmatic and realistic political actor could deprive the camp sympathetic to this approach (which included not only reformists and moderates but also a faction of conservatives) of a distinguished actor and an important weight in the political power structure. This is particularly noteworthy on the eve of the 2017 presidential elections, in the unique post-JCPOA period, during the changing composition of the government in the United States, and also amid an unprecedented crisis in the region. 2. Strengthening autocracy and authoritarianism: It can be confidently claimed that the absence of Hashemi Rafsanjani will further open the hands of the regime's top leader to increase autocracy and authoritarianism. Although for some time now the apex of the political system has pursued its projects and objectives in collaboration with security-military forces, and has sought to marginalize Hashemi within the political power structure, this does not mean the end of Rafsanjani's political role. Rafsanjani was perhaps the only one who, based on his long-term relationships with the Supreme Leader, would openly express his criticisms and critical views regarding the positions of the regime's top leader in private meetings. Given his background and political weight in the formation and establishment of the regime, Rafsanjani was not easily dismissible, especially since he patiently and persistently pursued his desired visions. From this angle, the death of an effective actor means encouraging the apex of the political system to pound harder on the drum of autocracy and authoritarianism. 3. A significant loss before the death of the regime's leader: The death of 82-year-old Hashemi Rafsanjani before the death of the ailing 77-year-old leader of the political system casts the fate of the Islamic Republic after the loss of the current regime leader into further ambiguity and questioning. Based on Rafsanjani's role and position in the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Discernment Council, his long-standing interactions and distant relationships with a diverse range of political actors, religious authorities, and seminaries, and even some military and security forces, as well as his increasing proximity to some of the demands and approaches of society, Rafsanjani could have played a distinguished role in the 'critical moment' of determining the third leader for the regime. However, with this experienced actor now closed off from the world, this absence will be felt in that 'critical moment.' He will not be there to pursue some of his ideas (including the council leadership of the regime, or limiting the leadership to a time frame, and strengthening the role of the Experts in overseeing the leadership). 4. Untold memories: The death of Rafsanjani also means that many memories will remain untold; important memories that a unique political actor had regarding Ayatollah Khomeini, the long and exhausting war, the mass execution of opponents in 1988, the suppression of critics and dissenters, military, missile, and nuclear activities, Ayatollah Khamenei, and other significant issues and events intertwined with the Islamic Republic. Rafsanjani, in a commendable and significant manner, documented his memories; a considerable portion of which, although incomplete and after certain deletions and considerations, was published. From this perspective, one can hope that these memories may be published later by Rafsanjani's relatives. However, he did not follow the path taken by Ayatollah Montazeri. He neither published his important memories from certain periods and events of the regime nor stood in a critical and protest position. Rafsanjani's orientation was always aimed at the 'continuity and preservation of the regime.' 5. A shock to political actors, coalitions, and strategies: The death of Hashemi Rafsanjani is also significant due to the blow it delivers to some optimistic assessments regarding his role in future political developments in Iran—especially after the loss of the Supreme Leader. There were many analysts and activists who had pinned their hopes on his effective role from the day after the death of the regime's ailing leader; this hope has now been put to rest. From this perspective, his absence, although initially a significant shock to a range of political activists and civil society actors, as well as influential players in the political power structure, will inevitably compel both factions to reflect more deeply and reconsider their strategies and future possibilities in the political arena. In other words, the death of Hashemi Rafsanjani could signify the beginning of a new era for political governance and the arrangement and configuration of effective political forces and actors within it, providing another opportunity for political activists and civil society forces to pause and evaluate the prospects of future political developments in Iran and the possibilities and grounds for action.