Why the Fifth Assembly of Experts Elections Are Not Particularly Significant?

On the seventh of Esfand, alongside the parliamentary elections, the elections for the Assembly of Experts will also take place. Does this election hold the same significance as the presidential or parliamentary elections in the Islamic Republic (regardless of their importance)? Is the mere selection of the future leader by this assembly (and not the oversight of the Supreme Leader, which has been removed from its agenda for three decades) a good reason for the importance of its elections? The authority does not mean choice. The Assembly of Experts has an important role and authority in the Islamic Republic because security and military institutions, alongside the governmental religious bureaucracy, are compelled to create the appearance of electing the next leader in this assembly so that the chosen individual appears to be selected by the jurists. However, the elections of this assembly are of no significance because, as conducted, there will be no change in the composition or function of this assembly, and public opinion will not gain much insight into the internal mechanisms of this assembly during the election process. The Assembly of Experts elections do not meet any electoral standards such as the existence of options, the presentation of different programs by candidates, the public's ability to question candidates, representation of various social classes by candidates, and the possibility of public oversight. There has not even been an attempt to make this election resemble the elections for parliament and the presidency. The organizers of the Assembly of Experts elections execute this election in such a way that there is no need for engineering the propaganda and its results. The government wants an Assembly of Experts that 1) all members are completely loyal to the existing leader; for this reason, Ali Mohammad Dashtgheib, a member of this assembly from Fars province, was disqualified after criticizing the government regarding its treatment of Mousavi and Karroubi; 2) are generally silent in the area of oversight over the leadership and the institutions under its supervision, and consider the role of the members of the Assembly to confirm and strengthen the existing leader rather than oversee his actions and the institutions under his supervision; 3) in terms of selecting the future leader, the members' eyes should be on the military and security institutions, choosing someone that these institutions have in mind. The process of the Guardian Council's vetting of candidates for this assembly guarantees the above three conditions. The Islamic Republic seeks a risk close to zero in this regard. The result of a risk close to zero is a completely non-competitive election. The number of members of the Assembly of Experts for the fifth term will be 88. For this assembly's elections, 166 individuals have been approved. If the people were to have the right to choose between two or more candidates, the number of approved candidates should have been at least 176. This means that for each seat in this assembly, there will not even be two candidates competing, and in some areas, people only have the choice between voting and not voting, not between two individuals. Considering the approval of 37 individuals in Tehran for 16 seats in this province, the number of candidates for 72 seats outside of Tehran will be 129, meaning that 15 (144 minus 129) seats in the Assembly of Experts are non-competitive. In six provinces, Hormozgan, Semnan, North Khorasan, Bushehr, Ardabil, and West Azerbaijan, the number of candidates for the Assembly of Experts equals the number of seats, and voters do not have any options even among pro-regime and Khamenei clerics. In East Azerbaijan, Khuzestan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Hamadan, and Qazvin, the number of candidates is only one more than the number of seats. In Fars, Golestan, Razavi Khorasan, and Gilan provinces, the number of candidates is less than twice the number of seats. Even in areas where there is more than one candidate for a seat, the candidates do not fundamentally differ from each other. They must choose from among very similar products of the factory of cleric production in the seminaries under government supervision and control. In seats where there are two candidates, people can choose between a cleric and his son (Mohammad Sadegh Haeri and Mohammad Hassan Haeri) or between two ministers of intelligence (Mohammad Alavi and Dari Najafabadi) or two clerics who have outdone each other in fatwas for murder and execution (Mesbah and Jannati) in the Tehran area. Or in Shiraz, people can choose between the current Friday prayer leader (Mohammad Imani) and the nephew of the former Friday prayer leader (Ali Asghar Dashtgheib). These two compete in their submission to the regime and bowing to Khamenei. The candidates' lack of connection to electoral districts. The candidates for the electoral districts are so unrelated to the electoral districts that none of them need to reside in that district or even register for specific districts and must necessarily dedicate themselves to the relevant district. For example, the representative of the Supreme Leader and the Friday prayer leader of Yazd, who registered from the Tehran electoral district for the Assembly of Experts, changed his electoral district. (Tabnak, February 15, 2016) This means that at the discretion of the Guardian Council, individuals have been considered for candidacy, and if there is no need for them in one district, they are sent to other districts or individuals have been handpicked for different districts, and if a suitable individual for one district is not found, another individual who registered for another district is moved. When 88 people plus another 78 who are 'exact copies' of the other 88 are introduced to the public for an election, it is clear that the election administrators have made their decision in advance. The head of the Assembly of Experts and a member of the Guardian Council has explicitly stated the criteria for selecting these members: 'The Assembly of Experts is not a place for factionalism, political maneuvering, youthfulness, and also not a place for elderly individuals who cannot do anything, but rather an assembly composed of comprehensive jurists.' (Tasnim, February 15, 2016) He does not only present the criteria but, as a jurist of the Guardian Council, disqualifies those who do not have such criteria. Ahmad Khatami, one of the Friday prayer leaders of Tehran, also introduces one of the criteria based on which the members (88 plus 78 alternate members) are determined: 'The Assembly of Experts is an assembly of elders.' (ISNA, February 10, 2016) Of course, the son of Haeri Shirazi, because he, like his father, is among the bowers at Khamenei's door and obedient to security and military institutions, is considered an 'elder' and his qualification is approved, but Khomeini's grandson, because he is not trusted in security circles, is not considered an elder and is disqualified. The lack of impact of participation rates. The Assembly of Experts elections, even if conducted with one person at each polling station in every electoral district, will lead to the formation of the assembly. Of course, the presence of one million or ten million people in the elections will have no effect on the composition of the assembly. According to the law on the elections of the Assembly of Experts, this election is a one-stage process, and no quorum for votes has been considered: 'The Experts are elected by a relative majority of the votes of the participants.' (Article 8) *** The only person whose presence and absence and selection and non-selection in the fifth Assembly of Experts elections is meaningful is Hashemi Rafsanjani, because he has recently made statements that are not pleasing to the members of the Guardian Council and the leadership's office, contrary to what he has said in the past. He has also been so attacked in the past six years by close associates of the leadership and commanders of the IRGC (with titles like instigator, troublemaker, low-capacity, corrupt, and deviant) that none of the members of the Assembly dare to take action against him within the framework of this assembly. His opponents have succeeded in isolating him in the Assembly of Experts after ousting him from its presidency.