Why the Fragile Ceasefire Between Israel and Lebanon is a Win-Win Agreement for All?

The agreement that was finally reached ended 14 months of war between Israel and Hezbollah. Now, for at least two months, the exchange of fire between the two sides is likely to stop. However, the basis for implementing these understandings seems very fragile, and given the depth and scope of the conflicts and tensions, there are many doubts about whether it can ultimately lead to lasting peace along the border between Lebanon and Israel. Nevertheless, the costs incurred and the uncertain outlook ahead make it possible to consider this ceasefire a win-win agreement for all parties, although the extent of this win varies among all the actors in this conflict. Although Israel was initially able to successfully eliminate the political leader of Hezbollah and several of its senior military commanders during its comprehensive campaign to strike the group, in recent weeks, the Israeli army's progress in Lebanon faced difficulties. Additionally, operations targeting buildings intended to eliminate other commanders of this Lebanese group have not been as successful as before in recent weeks. Hezbollah, a militia group and also a political party that controls a large part of southern Lebanon, was forced to appoint lower-ranking members to higher positions following the loss of its senior commanders, and it seems that Israel's influence among these lesser-known forces has not been sufficient to achieve its operational goals of eliminating them. Approximately one hundred Israeli soldiers were killed in this war, and its continuation could have increased this number. Israel's operations, which were supposed to be short-term to eliminate Hezbollah forces, extended for months, and while the country managed to inflict irreparable blows on Hezbollah militants, their missile and drone attacks continued until the last days before the ceasefire. Although there are many critics of this agreement within Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu can feel triumphant about the elimination of Israel's greatest enemies in the region and may consider the acceptance of the ceasefire a victory, especially since neither Hassan Nasrallah nor other senior commanders of this Lebanese group are alive. On the other hand, the concessions gained for Israel in this agreement allow them to potentially target Hezbollah positions in the future if necessary. Furthermore, at least in the text, it has been stipulated that control of the border areas in southern Lebanon should be in the hands of the Lebanese army; regardless of doubts about the feasibility of this, this event and the transfer of Hezbollah's weapons and forces behind the Litani River is also considered an achievement for Israel. It is worth mentioning that the United States considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization, but the European Union has placed its military wing on the blacklist while not labeling its political wing as terrorist. The political wing of Hezbollah also has representatives in the Lebanese parliament. Although Hezbollah managed to inflict blows on Israel during the months of war between the two sides, the damage this group has received from its enemy has been significantly greater. This group has lost its senior military and political leaders, and it is unclear how long the process of training and replacing them will take. It is also estimated that about 80% of this group's weaponry, which is dependent on the Islamic Republic, has been destroyed. The continuation of this war has increased internal pressures on Hezbollah, and each passing day has added to the number of angry Lebanese who consider their country's involvement in this war a result of Hezbollah's policies. Although there is likely no gain for Hezbollah, the end of the war at this point could provide the group with breathing space and perhaps even a chance for recovery. This group has been severely damaged but has not been dismantled, and their reorganization in the future is not far-fetched. The political achievement for Joe Biden's administration comes as it nears the end of its four-year term, during which few foreign policy issues have been successfully resolved. Conversely, wars have begun during these four years that did not exist before, one of which is the bloody conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. The Biden administration has made many efforts to restore peace to the region and finally managed to establish a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel in the last weeks of its presence in the White House. As Joe Biden described this agreement as "good news" in his Tuesday night speech, his administration can now consider this event among its foreign policy achievements. The Washington Post reported about ten days ago that Benjamin Netanyahu intended to finalize the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon before Donald Trump's inauguration to present it as a gift to the elected President of the United States. Donald Trump can now claim part of the credit for this agreement and present it as a result of his electoral victory over the Democratic candidate. Additionally, the Israeli Times had previously reported that Donald Trump had told Netanyahu to end the war before his arrival in the White House in January. As a result, Donald Trump can enter the White House having closed at least one of the numerous open foreign policy issues that the U.S. President faces, thereby reducing one of his challenges. The end of any war can be the best news for citizens whose lands have been engulfed in conflict. The Lebanese have witnessed their cities and villages burning in the flames of this conflict over the past year, and now they can at least enjoy some peace from the sounds of cannon and gunfire for a while. Lebanon, which was already facing a bankrupt and failed government before this war, will now grapple with new challenges, and the issues of garbage collection and gasoline shortages will no longer be the main concerns for its citizens, who will have to deal with more serious crises in the post-war era. Nevertheless, the publication of images showing citizens in the south of the country joyfully returning to their war-torn cities proves that the end of any war is always a victory for the people. Another significant player whose policies played a notable role in this conflict is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iranian officials have invested for decades in creating deterrence through militia groups across the region, with Hezbollah in Lebanon being the crown jewel. Over the years, Iran has sought to keep itself away from the danger of direct confrontation with Israel by assisting this Lebanese group, but over the past year, at least twice, direct attacks have been carried out against Iran's territory, senior leaders of these proxy groups have been killed, and their arsenals have been significantly weakened and destroyed. Iran can be pleased that the end of the war prevents further weakening of Hezbollah and has freed Tehran from the consequences that could arise from the killing of Nasrallah and senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guard, which could lead to a wider escalation of conflict. However, the larger defeat for the Islamic Republic is the loss of a significant portion of the policies and investments that it has planned and spent on for decades to achieve deterrence against Israel. Now, these groups have suffered heavy blows, and not only may their potential revival take a long time and considerable resources, but the taboo against direct military attacks by Israel on Iran has also been broken.