Will America Align Rouhani with the IRGC?

The decisive approval of new sanctions against Iran by the U.S. House of Representatives, one day after Hassan Rouhani's meeting with senior IRGC commanders, appears to be an attempt to bridge the deep divides between the two factions of the Islamic government in Tehran, inadvertently placing the Rouhani administration alongside the military. Donald Trump's stern warning that Tehran's non-compliance with the nuclear agreement would lead the Islamic Republic to face 'big problems' further complicates the situation. On June 7, Trump had also issued another statement against Iran when a similar sanctions proposal was passed in the Senate with 97 votes in favor. Evidence suggests that the Trump administration has reached conclusions regarding the framework of current and future U.S. relations with the Islamic Republic and has begun implementing its new policy step by step. In a previous statement made shortly after the ISIS terrorist attack on the parliament and Khomeini's tomb, Trump expressed condolences to the victims and reminded that 'governments that support terrorism become victims of their own evil.' In addition to missile activities, which are the reason for the new U.S. sanctions against Iran, support for terrorism, arms exports, backing armed groups in the Middle East, and human rights violations have also been highlighted. Sanctioning the IRGC is one of the most sensitive aspects of the new sanctions proposal, which, in its slightly modified current form (with the addition of Russia), must be voted on again in the Senate. The Obama administration hoped that the nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic would lead to a gradual change in Tehran's religious government, transforming Iran's revolutionary rule into a contractual and lawful system and paving the way for its entry into the global community. The Trump administration believes that Obama's policy towards Tehran has failed and that the Islamic Republic's behavior in the region has become more aggressive against U.S. interests and its allies, taking advantage of the financial benefits from the implementation of the nuclear agreement. The goal of the new U.S. foreign policy is to deprive Iran of the financial benefits of the JCPOA while maintaining deterrent restrictions against its nuclear development program and halting the Islamic Republic's missile development program; another aspect of the policy is the imposition of pressure. In the first part, the Trump administration faces resistance from European governments eager to expand trade with Tehran, while European coordination with the U.S. in dealing with Iran is crucial, and the success or failure of Washington's altered policy largely depends on European alignment. To overcome the European obstacle and demonstrate goodwill, the Trump administration has so far issued two 90-day confirmations of the implementation of the commitments outlined in the JCPOA, but in the report related to the second confirmation to Congress, the U.S. Secretary of State claimed that 'the Islamic Republic has not adhered to the spirit of the JCPOA.' The term 'adherence to the spirit of the JCPOA' refers to the gradual change of the Islamic regime and a softening of its foreign behavior in the region and the cessation of ballistic missile tests. The Trump administration seeks to create a situation where, by the next 90-day extension deadline for lifting sanctions, or at the earliest opportunity, it can refuse to issue a confirmation and, with European support, revert the sanctions against the Islamic Republic to the conditions of January 1, 2012. The non-nuclear sanctions proposal in Congress, issuing harsh statements against Tehran, informally raising the option of bypassing the Islamic Republic by Rex Tillerson, continuing banking restrictions, and the firing of bullets by the 'Thunderbolt' ship at the waters surrounding an IRGC vessel in the Persian Gulf, which was a different approach compared to the tolerance of the arrest of U.S. Navy personnel and patrol boats during the Obama administration, are serious signs of Trump's commitment to implementing the new policy. Driving Rouhani's government into the arms of the IRGC, by entering nuclear negotiations and placing Tehran's political representatives alongside U.S. and European political representatives, presented a different image of the Islamic government in Tehran to the world, while the nature and behavior of the Islamic government of Iran, contrary to expectations or the Obama administration's propaganda, remained unchanged. It seems that one of the goals of the Trump administration's foreign policy is to erase the previous image of Iran's revolutionary government in global public opinion and to promote its nature and behaviors within the ruling system, rather than solely portraying a smiling face without accountability from the representatives of the foreign policy of the government. If this goal is achieved, aligning Europe with the U.S. will be a significant gain. Trump's senior aides, including the Secretary of Defense and the National Security Advisor, have repeatedly attacked what they call 'the destabilizing actions of the Islamic Republic in the region' in unison with Israel and Saudi Arabia. The path to achieving this goal involves aligning the language of the Islamic Republic's diplomacy with the harsh rhetoric of the IRGC commanders and justifying the Islamic Republic's domestic and regional actions by the government; similar to the sharp reaction of Araqchi on Tuesday night and Rouhani's harsh and retaliatory criticism on Wednesday regarding the approval of new sanctions in the U.S. House of Representatives. The Islamic Republic's government, unlike Rouhani's conciliatory policy, has intensified its military activities in the region after the JCPOA and, in the missile sector, on Sunday, June 18, during an operation named 'Night of Destiny,' launched six medium-range ballistic missiles from Kermanshah and Kurdistan provinces into the Deir ez-Zor region in Syria using Iraqi airspace, taking a step beyond previous 'tests.' By aligning itself with this action, Rouhani's government was not only compelled to justify it but also claimed that the decision to launch the missiles was made in Iran's National Security Council, associating it with his role as the head of the National Security Council. In a subsequent statement, he also claimed that Iran's missiles are produced by the government's Ministry of Defense, thereby placing the Islamic Republic's missile activities under the government's responsibility! The alignment of Rouhani's government with the IRGC and acceptance of the principles favored by hardliners, who themselves oppose the spirit and implementation of the JCPOA, will strengthen Trump's hand in aligning Europe with Washington's new policies. The composition of Hassan Rouhani's next cabinet will reveal how much the twelfth government has distanced itself from the JCPOA and reformism and drawn closer to the IRGC and hardliners after his meeting on Tuesday with IRGC commanders, which apparently aimed to create a united front and avoid further tensions.