Will Jolani Succeed in Controlling Jihadist Forces in Syria?

The people of Syria and observers of the Syrian developments are raising many questions about the challenges ahead in the transitional phase following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. The main questions concern the shape of the future governing system in Syria, transitional justice, women's rights, minority rights, personal freedoms, and the structure of security and military institutions. However, one of the important questions is whether Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the commander of armed operations against Bashar al-Assad's government, will be able to control or, as some put it, 'tame' jihadist groups and convince them to end armed activities in Syria. Jolani, who after the fall of Assad's regime uses his real name 'Ahmad al-Shar'ah', must persuade the jihadists to obey the new constitution and respect state institutions; especially since most of these groups have grown up with a rhetoric far removed from that of a modern state, limiting their view of governance to a single phrase: 'implementation of Sharia'. Jolani, who is now known as the 'commander of the operations room' of a group opposing the former Syrian regime, leads a group named 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham', which has been designated as 'terrorist' by the United States. However, the U.S. State Department announced on Friday, December 30, that it would cancel the $10 million reward set for the capture of Jolani. Since his return to Syria in 2011, Jolani has faced many challenges from jihadists even more radical than himself. According to Al-Hurra television, of the six people who entered Syria with him from Iraq, three abandoned him and later joined ISIS. In Syria, Jolani established a group called 'Jabhat al-Nusra' and declared his allegiance to the 'Al-Qaeda' organization, which is recognized as 'terrorist' by the international community. In 2013, clashes erupted between the 'Islamic State of Iraq and Syria' known as 'ISIS', which is recognized as 'terrorist' by the international community. The leaders of ISIS accused Jolani of 'retreating from the principle of implementing Sharia in areas controlled by Jabhat al-Nusra'. This accusation led many members of Jabhat al-Nusra to join ISIS, as they viewed it as a successful model in implementing Islamic Sharia and enforcing its limits publicly, such as amputating the hands of thieves in public, stoning 'adulterers', punitive measures against smokers, imposing veils on women, and other rulings that this group enforced. Many continued their presence in Jabhat al-Nusra because they considered it a follower of Al-Qaeda, the leading jihadist organization. Nevertheless, debates and disputes about Jolani's policies continued on social media and among members. The main topic of these discussions was 'the implementation of Sharia and the establishment of limits during wartime'. Some accepted Jolani's view that full implementation of Sharia was contingent upon 'complete control'. However, others insisted on their position and demanded immediate implementation of Sharia, especially after the capture of Idlib city and signing a 'de-escalation agreement' with the Syrian government. In February 2017, Jolani began a war against some jihadist groups that were declaring the rulers of Idlib as infidels under the pretext of 'not implementing Islamic Sharia'. According to the Al-London website, bloody clashes between 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham' and 'Jund al-Aqsa' in Idlib and the northern outskirts of Hama province resulted in the deaths of dozens from both sides. Both sides executed dozens of each other's members and, in addition to employing various weapons in the clashes, also used suicide operations. 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham', led by Abu Muhammad Jolani, announced its establishment on January 28, 2017; an action that occurred after announcing its separation from Al-Qaeda. However, many countries, including the United States, considered this new group to be the same Jabhat al-Nusra but renamed and included it in the list of terrorist groups. A year before the clashes, Jolani believed he could link 'Jund al-Aqsa' to the coalition 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham', which intended to announce its establishment. However, the leaders and members of 'Jund al-Aqsa' insisted on their positions and protested against Jolani for what they called 'not implementing Sharia'. After bloody clashes, an agreement was eventually reached between 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham' and 'Jund al-Aqsa', which changed its name to 'Liwa al-Aqsa', based on which a safe passage was opened for the forces of 'Liwa al-Aqsa' and their families to the city of Raqqa in northeastern Syria, which at that time was under ISIS control. This way, some members of 'Liwa al-Aqsa' joined ISIS, others joined the 'Islamic Turkistan Party', and others established a new group called 'Ansar al-Tawhid'. 'Ansar al-Tawhid' later joined the operations room 'Fath al-Mubin' led by 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham' and had an active presence in the recent operations that led to the control of Syrian cities and the fall of Assad's regime. According to Al-Hurra, after three years of tensions and severe disagreements, in the summer of 2020, fierce clashes erupted between 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham' and the group 'Hurras al-Din'. The reason for these clashes was primarily Jolani's severing ties with Al-Qaeda. 'Hurras al-Din' considered Jolani's government illegitimate due to the end of his allegiance to 'Ayman al-Zawahiri', the former leader of Al-Qaeda, and thus did not accept the Idlib government, which operated under the name 'Salvation Government'. Jolani's last war with jihadists occurred in October 2021. This war began following 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's' attack on the positions of two groups 'Jund al-Sham' led by 'Muslim al-Shishani (Chechen)' and 'Jundallah' led by 'Abu Hanifa Azeri' in the western outskirts of Idlib and the northern outskirts of Latakia. The stated reason for this war was 'harboring wanted jihadists, armed robbery in the name of jihad, excommunicating Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the Salvation Government, and connections with ISIS' by the two other groups. 'Jund al-Sham' and 'Jundallah' denied these accusations. However, ultimately these clashes led to the surrender of these two groups, the evacuation of their positions, and the acceptance of the surrender of wanted individuals to the Idlib government. The main goal of 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham' from these actions was to control other jihadist groups and force them to join the 'Fath al-Mubin' operations room. In fact, Jolani succeeded in bringing most jihadist groups in Syria into the coalition 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham'. Other groups that insisted on independence faced military restrictions and were forced to recognize the 'Fath al-Mubin' operations room and accept the 'Salvation Government' ruling in Idlib as a political and service face in areas outside government control. During that period, Jolani did not allow the formation of jihadist coalitions outside 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham'. According to Syria television and Al-Hurra website, when five jihadist groups 'Liwa al-Muqatileen al-Ansar', 'Coordination Council of Jihad', 'Jabhat Ansar al-Din', 'Jama'at Ansar al-Islam', and 'Hurras al-Din' established a joint operations room named 'Fathbinu' (Be Steadfast) in June 2020, 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham' quickly dissolved it by arresting several leaders and commanders of the new organization. In every conflict between 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham' and other jihadist groups, what is referred to as the 'migrant groups' emphasized their allegiance to Jolani. The 'migrant groups' are composed of foreign militants following 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham', the most important of which include: 'Islamic Turkistan Party', 'Jama'at Tawhid wa Jihad of Uzbekistan', 'Jaysh al-Muhajirin wal-Ansar of Caucasus', 'Sham Islam Movement (Moroccan)', and groups from Albania, Maldives, and several other countries. In recent years, Jolani has largely succeeded in controlling jihadist groups. The crushing tool of 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham', which are the 'Red Brigades' and 'Brigades of Khalid ibn al-Walid', have so far shown their absolute obedience to Jolani. However, the question remains whether Jolani, who is now referred to by his real name 'Ahmad al-Shar'ah', will be able to convince these jihadists to accept the new political discourse after the capture of Damascus and the fall of Assad's regime. According to multiple sources, 'Abdul Rahman Atoon', the number two man in 'Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham', has played a key role in shaping the ideological and political developments of this group over the past years. Atoon has been a companion and trusted aide of Jolani since the establishment of 'Jabhat al-Nusra', and it seems that the mission of transforming the ideology of jihadists in the new Syria will also fall to him. Certainly, accepting new developments will be difficult for groups of jihadists. Absorbing the new discourse that 'political administration' proposes, including issues about minority rights, elections, relations with the international community, drafting a constitution, and relations with Western countries, will be challenging for these jihadists.