Will the Ukraine War End in 2025?

After the failure of the Russian army's extensive assault in the first weeks of the military invasion aimed at dominating Ukraine and capturing Kyiv, most experts have emphasized over the past two and a half years that no end to this war can be imagined. This prevailing view has changed for various reasons in recent months. Among the reasons for this change are the state of the battlefronts, shifts in public opinion, and Donald Trump's return to the White House, who has repeatedly stated that he will end the largest war on European soil since World War II within a day or two. Will Russia's war against Ukraine end in 2025? Many experts believe that if we equate the end of the war with a sustainable peace, such a thing will not happen because Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, contrary to all his claims, does not want to stop the war and reconcile unless it leads to a level of Moscow's dominance over Ukraine, a situation that is unacceptable for Kyiv and its Western supporters. Experts say that Vladimir Putin wants Russia to be in a position that is always a threat to Ukraine and, at the same time, a serious challenge for the West, which he sees as an aggressor in the 'clash of civilizations.' In contrast, Ukraine is not willing to accept a peace agreement that means ceding occupied territories to Russia and is also unwilling to give up its right to hold Russia accountable and punish it for crimes committed against Ukraine and its people. Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior researcher on Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said, 'In my opinion, we are still far from the end of the war.' Efforts to establish a ceasefire are acceptable, and given Donald Trump's promise for a quick end to the war, dialogue between the two sides seems more likely than ever, especially after the unsuccessful negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul a few weeks after the war began. Olga Oliker, head of the Europe and Central Asia program at the Crisis Group, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 'I believe what will happen throughout 2025 will be a form of practical ceasefire based on public or private negotiations, which will not necessarily mean a legal and formal ceasefire.' However, such a ceasefire may be accompanied by traps, and if necessary and effective measures to ensure Ukraine's security are not implemented, Russia may use the ceasefire to reorganize its army and launch further attacks. At the same time, establishing a ceasefire faces multiple obstacles, the most important of which is the irreconcilable positions of both sides regarding critical aspects of this crisis. A significant dispute is national territory. Olga Oliker believes that the Ukrainian army is severely exhausted and in a position of weakness. In contrast, the Russian army has been advancing almost uninterruptedly on the eastern fronts despite heavy casualties. Under such conditions, the likelihood of establishing a ceasefire has increased, and it seems that Ukraine may temporarily and informally accept ceding some or all occupied territories to Russia. But this concession may not be enough for Vladimir Putin. He and other senior Russian officials have repeatedly emphasized that the annexation of four provinces in eastern and southeastern Ukraine to the territory of the Russian Federation, even parts of these areas still under Ukrainian control, is non-negotiable. The Ukrainian government will not accept such a condition. A larger and more significant obstacle to establishing an effective ceasefire is security guarantees for Ukraine. Russia is fundamentally opposed to Ukraine joining NATO. Moscow announced three years ago that one of the main conditions for stopping the military invasion of Ukraine was Kyiv's guarantee not to join NATO. Experts believe that Moscow will not accept any other plan that they consider to mean Ukraine's unofficial membership in NATO. Nigel Gould-Davies said that if Ukraine's Western supporters want to circumvent the formal membership of this country and implement a plan that, in practice, means NATO security guarantees for Kyiv, Vladimir Putin will not accept it at all. He added, 'It is very difficult to formulate and implement a security guarantee plan for Ukraine that is acceptable to both sides.'