Winner of the Nuclear Talks: Obama or Netanyahu?

Parastoo Sabour, senior international relations expert, states that despite the intense criticism faced by Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's Foreign Minister and head of the nuclear negotiation team, for his walk in Geneva with John Kerry, the U.S. Secretary of State, it appears that the nuclear negotiations have made progress. Not only has the spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry and Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, reported advancements in the negotiations, but also Jen Psaki, the spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, has indicated progress. Another sign of progress in the negotiations can be seen in the strong reactions from opponents of the agreement, both in the U.S. and Iran. Netanyahu's efforts, both overt and covert, to undermine Iran's nuclear negotiations are also well-known. Until recently, one of the main concerns for those hopeful about the negotiations was the victory of Republicans in the U.S. Congressional elections. Although Obama had previously warned that he would veto any new sanctions against Iran, the new political landscape in the U.S. indicates that he will face serious challenges in advancing negotiations and preventing new sanctions against Iran in Congress. The Republican victory in the Congressional elections with 54 seats (out of 100) gives them the power to easily bring any proposal to the floor with a simple majority of 51 votes. Thus, with only 60 votes, they can pass any proposal. Although the President can veto bills, if senators can pass a proposal with two-thirds of the votes plus one vote—67 votes—according to the U.S. Constitution, the President will no longer have the right to veto. Republicans have always criticized Obama for negotiating with Iran, referring to him as a weak leader. They believe that sanctions have brought Iran to the negotiating table, and therefore increasing sanctions will lead Iran to concede more at the negotiating table. Thus, they believe that new sanctions will actually improve America's position at the negotiating table and result in a better agreement for the U.S. The low approval rating of Obama among the American people (48%), the highly polarized political atmosphere in the U.S., and the nearing end of Obama's eight-year presidency have increased fears that Republicans can rally Democrats to pass sanctions against Iran and achieve that golden 67 votes, a supermajority. However, what has currently shifted the game in favor of Iran are the events and controversies following Obama's annual speech to Congress and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. For the first time in Congress, Obama directly warned the Republican-controlled Congress that he would veto any new sanctions against Iran. Following this speech, several Republicans threatened to pass the sanctions proposal with the golden and veto-proof 67 votes. However, an unexpected move by John Boehner, the Republican Speaker of the House, in an attempt to gather 67 senators and pass sanctions backfired. Boehner, contrary to international protocol, invited Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, to speak about the dangers of Islamic extremism and Iran's nuclear program in Congress without coordinating with the White House. In response to this action, the White House announced that not only would Obama not meet with Netanyahu, but neither would Vice President Joe Biden nor Secretary of State John Kerry. Reactions against this action did not end with the Democrats in the White House. Even Fox News, the conservative news network in the U.S., which usually welcomes any criticism against Obama, harshly criticized Boehner in one of its programs. This level of tension in U.S.-Israel relations has been unprecedented. Support for Israel has effectively become a priority for the Republican Party, and it seems that it is not only Obama who has deep disagreements with Netanyahu and his policies, but gradually the Democratic Party is also distancing itself from Israel, although this process is still very slow. Many pro-Israel Democrats, including Hillary Clinton, who is likely to be the Democratic candidate in the upcoming presidential election, have opposed new sanctions in support of Obama. Additionally, in recent years, due to Netanyahu's policies and Israel's attack on Gaza last year, Israel's global isolation has accelerated. The recognition of Palestine by Sweden and the symbolic votes in the parliaments of the UK, Ireland, France, and Spain recognizing Palestine also indicate Europe's disappointment and anger towards Israel. Based on what has been said, the continuation of tensions in Israel's relations with other countries in the world is likely if it continues its current policies. However, in the U.S., where Iran is involved, before the recent controversies surrounding the unexpected invitation from the Speaker of the House to Netanyahu, most Democrats and Republicans had generally agreed on being tough on Iran. The Democrats' anger towards Netanyahu may have occurred at the best possible time for Iran. In this situation, there is hope that the bilateral negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Geneva, which were accompanied by a noisy walk by the foreign ministers of both countries, may pave the way for a final solution. Moreover, the harsh and bloody events in the Middle East these days, from the emergence and advance of ISIS in Iraq, to the Syrian war, to the fall of Sana'a by the Shia Houthis and the death of the Saudi king, have created an opportunity for Iran to play a more effective role in regional stability and security. Furthermore, Obama knows well that to overcome extremist and terrorist groups in the region, he will need Iran's help. The truth is that these days, Iran's national interests and those of the U.S., especially regarding Middle Eastern issues, have many common points; therefore, resolving nuclear disputes could pave the way for greater cooperation between the two countries in achieving common goals, and Iran, as Obama mentioned in his interview with NPR, could become a successful regional power. There is not much time left until the end of the marathon nuclear negotiations. Iran and the P5+1 have only a few weeks to draft the final framework of the agreement. On March 2 of this year, Netanyahu will travel to the U.S. to speak about the dangers of Iran's nuclear program before the U.S. Congress. He will try to gather the golden and veto-proof 67 votes to pass sanctions against Iran. If by that day diplomats have drafted the final agreement framework, linking U.S. national interests and the call for new sanctions against Iran will be very difficult for Netanyahu. Because the likelihood of disgruntled Democrats from this uncoordinated invitation cooperating with Netanyahu against their President's foreign policy appears very low. However, if by that day the final framework has not been determined, Netanyahu's victory over Obama may not be far-fetched.