Women's Seats in Parliament and the Difficult Path to Democracy and Gender Justice

Criticism of the male-dominated face of parliament and the effort to change it has become one of the prominent topics in the electoral atmosphere for the tenth parliament. The main support for this plan is based on the importance of quantitative growth. However, monitoring conditions in Iran and the world shows that mere quantitative growth does not play a decisive role in increasing women's political participation and consequently empowering them. Indeed, the share of Iranian women in parliamentary seats is very low, ranking among the lowest globally and regionally. Therefore, increasing this share is essential. However, an unrealistic framing of this issue, exaggerating and ignoring qualitative factors, can be problematic. In other words, there must be a proper understanding of the increased role of women in power and its relationship with gender gaps and democracy. The unique political structure of the Iranian government and its transitional phase must also be considered, which has a different status compared to developed and democratic countries. First, to better understand the position of women in parliament, it is useful to pay attention to the number of female representatives in various parliamentary terms after the revolution. The following chart shows the trend of parliamentary seats and women. As can be seen, there is no gender balance in the composition of parliament, and efforts to increase women's representation in parliament and the executive branch are justified and logical. However, this necessity should be addressed with a correct explanation of the issue and proper goal-setting. The mere presence of women in parliament does not have a definitive and undeniable impact on improving women's status and enhancing democracy. It creates a space for potential growth but is not determinative by itself. However, increasing women's roles in power has been effective in reducing the gender gap and provides a relatively better outlook for establishing gender justice. Nonetheless, under the specific conditions of Iranian society and the structural barrenness of parliament, the capacity for mere quantitative increase and reducing women's political participation to becoming lawyers and ministers in the Islamic Republic has limited potential. To clarify the issue, having a general picture of the global status and the relationship between democracy indicators, gender gaps, and women's share in parliaments is useful. The following table shows the democracy ranking, gender gap ranking, and the percentage of parliamentary seats held by women, broken down by country. Information about some countries is incomplete as not all indicators were considered in the 2015 assessment. It should be noted that the democracy ranking is extracted from the 2015 report of the Independent, which annually assesses the state of democracy in countries worldwide based on five categories: electoral processes and pluralism, civil and social freedoms, government effectiveness, political participation, and political culture. Information on the gender gap status is collected from the World Economic Forum report, which annually prepares and compiles a report on the status of women and visible and hidden gender discrimination by country based on received information and expert reviews. Statistical analysis shows that there is a very weak linear and obligatory relationship between the share of women in parliamentary seats and democracy, and increasing women's seats does not in itself create significant improvements in democracy and human rights. The correlation coefficient between the democracy ranking and the percentage of women's seats in parliaments worldwide is approximately negative 26 percent. However, the correlation coefficient between the democracy index and the gender gap ranking, as well as between the gender gap and the share of women in legislative bodies, is significantly higher, at 58 percent and negative 64 percent, respectively. One of the criteria for measuring the gender gap index is the percentage of female parliamentarians, presidents, and ministers. Therefore, it is natural to expect, not with absolute certainty but with a reasonable probability, that a greater presence of women in parliament signifies a better gender gap situation. Utilizing a simple regression analytical method is a good tool for displaying the actual ratio of the quantitative growth of female representatives with democracy and gender gap indicators. The following charts sequentially show the regression results, indicating that there is no linear relationship between the democracy ranking and the position of countries regarding women's presence in power. The linear relationship concerning the gender gap is better but not very strong. Another important factor for accurate conclusions is the necessity to distinguish between democratic and developed countries and non-democratic and developing societies. Analyzing the mentioned data in Middle Eastern countries clearly shows that a mere emphasis on quantitative increase while ignoring qualitative factors leads to incorrect results and can be misleading in certain conditions. The following chart shows the three aforementioned indicators for Middle Eastern countries. The correlation coefficient between democracy and the percentage of women's seats in parliament is negative 40 percent, which, although not strong in terms of direct relationship, is better than the global situation. However, the aforementioned quantity for the reciprocal relationship between the number of female representatives and the gender gap is a low negative 11 percent. This factor indicates that the artificial increase of female representatives in countries like Iraq and Saudi Arabia does not correlate with the gender disparities and discrimination in these countries. By employing ordinary regression methods for Middle Eastern countries, we arrive at the following charts: The relatively higher correlation coefficient between democracy and the number of female representatives in Middle Eastern countries serves as an encouragement for the usefulness of the quantitative growth of women's seats in parliaments. However, compared to the gender gap situation and the serious problems existing in the realm of power and society, it is not inherently a solution and cannot fully resolve the issues. Overall, considering the analysis conducted, the mere increase of female representatives in Iran's parliament is a positive matter, but its useful function is limited. Ignoring qualitative indicators and highlighting this phenomenon individually can lead to incorrect conclusions. There is no meaningful and determining relationship between democracy and the quantitative growth of women in the power structure. In non-democratic countries where the legal and real power structure supports discriminatory laws and practices, even increasing female lawyers and ministers does not guarantee the repair of the gender gap. Therefore, it is appropriate to realistically frame expectations regarding the reduction of the male face of parliament.