Zarif at Munich Conference: Contentment with Playing the Role of the 'Fifth Wheel'

Javad Zarif's trip to Munich on Friday to attend the annual security conference in Germany was met with a cold reception and critical views from opponents of Rouhani's government domestically, and abroad, due to the government's questionable positions over the past two years, it did not receive much enthusiasm. During the peak of Iran's nuclear negotiations with the P5+1 countries and after the signing of the nuclear agreement on July 15, 2015, the presence of the Iranian Foreign Minister in global forums alongside the foreign ministers of major powers was widely welcomed by global media. Zarif's trip to Germany for the Munich Security Conference comes despite the European Union's support for the nuclear deal with Tehran (JCPOA), as Iran's missile activities have intensified, coinciding with a significant increase in military presence in the region in the two years following the nuclear agreement, leading to sharp criticisms from European powers, regional countries, and the U.S. On the eve of Zarif's participation in the Munich Security Conference, the Warsaw Conference, aimed at showcasing security threats posed by the Islamic Republic to global peace and the security of regional countries, concluded, with many participants heading directly from Warsaw to Munich. One of the main prerequisites for the success of any country's diplomacy is its domestic support and the ability to garner backing from friendly nations for the designed mission; the Rouhani government experienced this in bringing the nuclear negotiations with the U.S. to fruition. Currently, due to the emergency situation in the country, ongoing economic difficulties, the free fall of the national currency, rising unemployment, increasing poverty, and growing livelihood problems, the internal front is fragmented and diverse. The renewal of U.S. sanctions and the lack of effective European action to establish an independent banking channel and provide facilities for continuing trade with European partners have put internal opponents of the nuclear deal and critics of the government's continued reliance on negotiations with Europe in a new aggressive position. Critics of the government, especially on the eve of Zarif's trip to Germany, have sharply attacked the new European financial mechanism known as INSTEX, which, if launched, would have conditional services and be limited to exchanges of food, medicine, and humanitarian aid. On the day Zarif headed to Germany in hopes of promoting the regime's positions or garnering more support from the EU through bilateral negotiations on the sidelines of the conference, Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the IRGC, at a ceremony in Tehran, referred to a statement by Ali Khamenei about 'continuing the path of revolution and resistance,' labeling supporters of 'negotiation' as 'infiltrators in the government' and 'passive liberals.' While the Islamic Republic is labeled by U.S. officials and political representatives of regional countries as the 'number one supporter of terrorism in the world,' Zarif's efforts at the Munich Security Conference to portray the Islamic Republic as a 'victim of terrorism,' just a day after the 'Khash incident' in which at least 27 IRGC members were killed, does not lead to a favorable outcome. Zarif heads to Munich while his government, due to being cornered, has even forgotten the language of diplomacy, referring to another global conference (in Warsaw) as a 'circus.' The Munich Conference, which has been held since 1963, is comparable to the annual 'Davos' forum in economic fields, without direct dependence on the host government (Germany), providing a platform for global politicians and experts to address hot security issues and propose constructive solutions to current problems and future threats. The Munich Security Conference, which has local branches in other parts of the world, including Qatar, where the latest branch will host a 'Cyber Security' conference in Doha this October, promotes the goal of ensuring global peace through dialogue. Due to the widespread participation of well-known global figures, the annual Munich Conference serves as a venue for informal bilateral meetings and addressing regional and global issues. This year's conference, running from Friday, February 15 to Sunday, February 17, features participation from leaders of countries such as Germany's Angela Merkel, Egypt, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is also among the participants, and in the U.S. delegation, nearly all prominent figures who attended the February 13 and 14 Warsaw Conference, including Vice President Mike Pence, Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan, and other U.S. congressional figures like Senator Lindsey Graham, are present. It is anticipated that discussions from the Warsaw Conference, particularly regarding security threats posed by the Islamic Republic, will be followed up in Munich. One of Poland's interests, which hosted the Warsaw Conference, particularly Ukraine, represented at the Munich Conference at the presidential level, is the second Russian gas pipeline to Europe, which Germany strongly supports, while the U.S. is equally opposed to the construction of the Russian gas pipeline, with Ukraine and Poland viewing it as a threat. Given the state of Rouhani's government and political fragmentation domestically, the gradual European shift towards U.S. policies regarding the imposition of nuclear sanctions against Iran, the changing political tone in Tehran, and the use of insulting diplomatic language towards opposing countries, it seems that, unlike in previous years, Zarif's role at this year's Munich Security Conference can best be likened to that of a 'fifth wheel.'