Contradiction of Iran's Oil Minister's Claim of 'Record Oil Exports' with International Statistics

On Wednesday, the Iranian Oil Minister claimed that Iran set a 'record for oil exports in over a decade' in the month of Dey; a claim that starkly contradicts data from tanker tracking companies and international organizations. These statements by Mohsen Paknejad came just one day after Donald Trump signed an order to 'revive the maximum pressure policy' against Iran. On Wednesday, February 6, Paknejad claimed, 'In the month of Dey, we set a record for oil exports in over a decade; we announce this news to make our people happy.' The tanker tracking company TankerTrackers told Radio Farda on Tuesday that Iran's daily oil exports last month were 1.567 million barrels, which is roughly equivalent to Iran's average oil exports in 2024. The International Energy Agency reported that Iran's gas production growth has slowed down. Data from the commodity information company, Kpler, provided to Radio Farda also shows that Iran's oil exports last month were half of the volume exported in Ordibehesht 1397 (May 2018), when the previous U.S. government led by Trump withdrew from the JCPOA. In that month, Iran's daily oil exports had reached a historic record of nearly three million barrels. Even estimates from the United Against Nuclear Iran organization indicate that Iran's daily oil exports in January were below 1.4 million barrels, with only one million barrels going to China, while the rest was sent to unknown destinations, and it is unclear whether buyers were found. Simultaneously with the Iranian Oil Minister's claim about 'breaking the 10-year record in oil exports,' Reuters reported that for the second consecutive month, Iran's oil production declined, decreasing by 60,000 barrels in January compared to December of last year. Goldman Sachs, the American financial services giant, has also predicted that the downward trend in Iran's oil production and exports will continue due to the revival of the Trump administration's maximum pressure policy. Since the signing of the order to revive the maximum pressure policy against Iran by Trump on Monday evening, the dollar rate in the Iranian free market has increased by about two percent, and at the time of this report, one U.S. dollar is trading at 85,750 tomans. Meanwhile, Iran has faced more restrictions on currency imports over the past year and a half and has instead attempted to import gold bullion in exchange for exports. Iranian customs statistics show that in the first ten months of this year, 81 tons of gold bullion were imported, which is 3.5 times higher than the same period last year. Despite such a surge, a new report from the World Gold Council published on Tuesday indicates that gold jewelry purchases in the domestic Iranian market decreased by about two percent in 2024, while purchases of gold bullion and coins fell by five percent. Last year, Iranians purchased 42.3 tons of bullion and coins along with 26.7 tons of gold jewelry.