Former Central Bank Governor: Inflation Will Not Decrease Next Year

The former governor of the Central Bank, Valiollah Seif, reacted to the claims of the Ibrahim Raisi government regarding a decreasing inflation trend this year and its continuation into next year, stating that "there is no horizon that can show us inflation will decrease next year." In an interview with the 'Khabar Online' website, Seif emphasized that with limited revenues and rising costs, reducing inflation is not feasible. According to this former central bank official, a 50% increase in taxes and its realization in a situation where the economy is facing recession and stagnation raises questions. Seif also commented on the government's claimed 8% economic growth, saying, "The necessary conditions for such growth are not in place. Perhaps if things go very well, the economy could grow by a maximum of 4%." Seif, who served as the governor of the Central Bank from 2013 to 2018 during Hassan Rouhani's presidency, also addressed the government's claims of not resorting to the Central Bank for budget financing, stating that this is done indirectly by manipulating bank resources. This former senior banking official criticized the currency policies of the Ibrahim Raisi government, deeming the fixed pricing policy as "a realm of corruption"; a policy that, according to the Iranian judiciary, implicated Seif and his currency deputy during his tenure as the Central Bank governor in economic corruption. Valiollah Seif and Ahmad Iraqi, along with Salar Aghakhani - an individual appointed by Central Bank officials for illegal currency transactions as forward transactions - were sentenced in October 2021 to 10 years, 8 years, and 13 years in prison, respectively, for "disrupting the order and tranquility of the country's currency market and facilitating illegal currency trading." This ruling was overturned by the Supreme Court in July of this year and sent back for reconsideration to a "parallel court." Government officials in Iran claim that with new economic policies, inflation is on a downward path and economic growth will exceed 4% next year. Reducing unemployment, controlling inflation, improving economic conditions, and enhancing the business environment are among the claims that experts and analysts view with skepticism, and the public, considering their living conditions, regards these claims as unrealistic. The slogan "High prices, inflation, a scourge for the people" was heard at a gathering of retired civil servants in Yazd. Media criticism of the "agreed wage"; the cost of living basket in Iran is less than 20 million. The consequences of poverty in border cities; the rise of teenage suicides in Ilam province. The aftershocks of the economic crisis on family foundations; 570 cases of dowry claims registered in one day. The continuation of price increases in Iran; families have spent more than last year. A researcher from the Parliamentary Research Center stated that two-thirds of the poor are unable to escape poverty.