Iran on the Brink of 'Post-Sanctions': Hopes and Concerns

Radio Farda - Hassan Rouhani, the President of Iran, announced on Wednesday the imminent start of the sanctions relief process, stating, "We must prepare ourselves for economic activity." Reza Valizadeh asks Fereydoun Khavand, an economist residing in Paris, what transformations can be expected in Iran's economic landscape with the commencement of this process? Fereydoun Khavand: About five months ago, after the signing of the 'Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action' or 'JCPOA' in the Austrian capital, Iranians expected the necessary psychological environment for economic prosperity to be created. This expectation did not materialize, and even due to internal and international reasons, the recession intensified. Now the time for the implementation of the 'JCPOA' has arrived, which according to Mr. Rouhani will begin next month. Will Iranians, who have been eagerly awaiting this event, be disappointed again? There is no doubt that lifting sanctions could provide a positive shock to Iran's economy considering the factors that have been discussed repeatedly: an increase in oil and petroleum product exports, access to blocked foreign assets, removal of barriers to utilizing financial and banking services including the international payment system 'SWIFT', reduction in import and export costs, access to foreign investments, enhancement of tourism, etc. However, there are also deterrent factors that, if underestimated, could minimize the positive impact of lifting sanctions. What factors could harm the sanctions relief process? Here, at least three factors can be pointed out: First, if the sanctions relief process is not accompanied by economic reforms, it will soon lose momentum. The second factor is the emergence of new tensions in Iran's foreign policy, particularly concerning what is happening in the Middle East. Finally, the third factor is the obstacles that foreign opponents of the 'JCPOA', especially in the U.S. Congress, could create for the optimal implementation of this agreement, such as the recent resolution by the U.S. House of Representatives regarding limiting visa-free travel to the U.S. for several countries including Iran. If this resolution passes other legislative stages in the U.S. and becomes law, a German or French citizen traveling to Iran will need a visa to enter the U.S. for five years after this trip. This will naturally be a significant barrier for an investor, banker, or even a European tourist traveling to Iran. It seems that Iranian economic activists and academics have organized a widespread campaign against this resolution of the U.S. House of Representatives... This is a new mobilization by Iranian civil society to counter an action that could harm the country's integration into the international economy.