OPEC: Iran's Oil Production Decreased Again in October

According to statistics from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iran's daily oil production decreased by 156,000 barrels in October, reaching 3 million and 296 thousand barrels. This figure shows a decline of more than 530,000 barrels compared to Iran's production before the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA (in Ordibehesht). In its latest monthly report published on Tuesday, November 13, OPEC states that despite Iran's production drop, Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased their production by a total of 270,000 barrels last month. The report indicates that for the first time in several years, Iran has refrained from sending its monthly oil production statistics to OPEC. During the first round of sanctions, Iran also denied its production decline for several months and then refrained from officially announcing its oil production figures, eventually admitting to a one million barrel drop in crude oil production. In recent months, while Iran has continuously faced production declines, it has denied the extent of the drop in its official reports to OPEC and completely withheld its statistics last month. OPEC's own assessment indicates that Iran's daily oil production has decreased by 530,000 barrels over the past few months. OPEC also states that next year, the demand for OPEC oil will decrease by 1.1 million barrels per day compared to this year. This is attributed to the surge in production from non-OPEC countries, particularly the U.S., Russia, Kazakhstan, and Canada. For this year, global oil consumption is expected to grow by 1.5 million barrels more than last year, but only non-OPEC countries' production has increased by 2.31 million barrels. Global oil consumption is also projected to increase by 1.29 million barrels next year, but the increase in production from non-OPEC countries is expected to be 2.23 million barrels. Due to the surge in production from non-OPEC countries, the demand for OPEC member countries' oil will decrease by 1.1 million barrels next year. Recently, Saudi Arabia also announced that under the current production trend, there will be excess oil in the market next year, and OPEC members and allied countries led by Russia need to cut their production by one million barrels per day. OPEC and allied countries are expected to make a decision on this matter next month. OPEC states that the oil production of its members increased by 127,000 barrels in October compared to the previous month, reaching 32 million and 900 thousand barrels, the highest figure in the past two years. The demand for OPEC oil is projected to be 32 million and 600 thousand barrels for this year and 31 million and 500 thousand barrels for next year. However, Iran and Venezuela are continuously facing declines in oil production, and it remains unclear whether OPEC members and allied countries led by Russia will agree to reduce production next month. On the other hand, two major non-OPEC countries that have entered into a production cut agreement with OPEC, Russia and Kazakhstan, are expected to see the highest growth in oil production next year alongside the U.S. and Canada. Russia currently produces 11.4 million barrels of oil, equal to U.S. production. However, next year, Russia plans to increase its production to 11.7 million, while the U.S. aims for 12.1 million barrels.