Prominent Economist Rejects Iranian Government's Statistical Claims; Real Inflation is One and a Half Times Higher

Steve Hanke, a prominent American economist and professor at Johns Hopkins University, announced that the real annual inflation rate in Iran is more than one and a half times higher than the figure reported by the Iranian Statistical Center. On Friday, June 2, he tweeted: "Today I accurately calculated inflation in Iran and reached a figure of 72.24 percent annually, which is almost 1.5 times higher than the rate officially reported by the Iranian government." He continued: "The Iranian Statistical Center announced the annual inflation rate at 49.10 percent in May and continues to produce and publish incorrect and unrealistic statistics, but what is certain is that inflation in Iran is extremely high." After the Iranian Statistical Center reported the annual inflation rate for May at 49.1 percent, media outlets noted that this level of inflation has been unprecedented in about 80 years. The Ham-Mihan newspaper on Wednesday, June 1, confirmed this unprecedented nature by publishing a table of inflation rates over the past 86 years, citing the Central Bank, stating that this inflation figure has not been seen in Iran in the past 78 years, except in 1995. According to the Ham-Mihan newspaper, in the past year, the price of oil has increased by 251 percent, the price of red meat and chicken by 83 percent, and the prices of milk, cheese, and eggs by 90 percent. On Friday, June 2, the Eko Iran website, citing reports from the Iranian Statistical Center, wrote that housing rent inflation in Iran has reached its highest level in the past 10 years. According to Eko Iran, based on the Iranian Statistical Center's reports, the point-to-point inflation for housing rent over the past three months has recorded an unprecedented growth of over 39 percent in the past decade. Based on the findings of the consumer price index in May 2023, the inflation rate for the housing sector, accounting for 12.4 percent of total inflation, has been the second factor contributing to the rise in the general price level, while the inflation rate for food, with a 23 percent share, has taken the first place in increasing inflation in Iran. Meanwhile, Ebrahim Raisi, the President of the thirteenth government, mentioned in a televised speech in April of this year that "controlling inflation" and "economic growth" are the main programs of the government for the new year. Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, has also named the year 1402 as the "year of controlling inflation and increasing production."