Raisi's Claim: Indicators Show Economic Growth; Analyst: It's Sophistry and Promotion of Pseudoscience

The President of the Islamic Republic of Iran has claimed that indicators show "economic growth," but an analyst in an interview with Voice of America accused Ebrahim Raisi's government of "sophistry in data analysis," preventing the publication of statistics, and resorting to "promotion of pseudoscience." Despite the increasing wave of inflation and intensified livelihood protests, Ebrahim Raisi said on Wednesday, April 22, "Do not fear the number-making in the market" and claimed that "all indicators show economic growth." According to the state news agency "IRNA," he stated in his Eid al-Fitr speech: "Do not worry about the number-making in the market. The economic situation will definitely improve." He accused some unofficial channels of "number-making" and alarming economic activists, claiming that "there will be no issues for production and services and the realization of the annual slogan" which has been announced as "production leap with public participation." Raisi's claim comes at a time when some official statistics have not been published for months and have become confidential. Meanwhile, several experts and university professors in Iran have sharply criticized economic policies based on the published statistics in interviews following the Nowruz holidays. A journalist and analyst residing in Iran, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told the Persian section of Voice of America regarding Ebrahim Raisi's statements: "The government sophistically analyzes the results of statistical data, and for example, the government and its affiliated media refer to the reduction of Iran's foreign debts as an achievement, while a technical and expert analysis of this data may yield completely different results from the government's claims and conversely indicate a warning status for Iran's economy." This expert added: "At best, one can say that the state of Iran's economy is opaque, and in this opaque situation, the government can make any claims." This economic analyst also commented on the statements of the Islamic Republic's president: "I do not know which economic indicators Raisi is talking about? The publication of many economic statistics that were regularly and periodically published has been halted in the thirteenth government." According to this journalist and economic analyst, statistics such as "monthly housing market indicators" published by the Statistical Center of Iran and the Central Bank have been "halted for months" or "industrial production statistics have not been published for more than a year." This expert also emphasized that the "publication of free market prices for currency, cars, and housing" has also been "subject to censorship in the media and advertising platforms like Divar for a long time," and some statistics have also become "confidential"; such as "export and oil revenue statistics." He stated that "even non-economic statistics such as suicide rates or the birth rates of disabled infants and even some environmental indicators" are currently "confidential." This economic analyst also said: "Apart from this, the statistics published by official sources such as the Statistical Center and the Central Bank sometimes suffer from a gap in results, and for instance, while one authority announces positive economic growth for a sector, another authority declares negative economic growth for the same sector." He added: "Significant contradictions in the reports of official sources regarding economic data have led to questioning the reports of global institutions about the state of Iran's economy," and for example, "the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund's reports on the state of Iran's economy have been doubted by economists many times" because "these international bodies extract their reports from the data of the central banks of countries and their official statistical sources." He concluded: "Unfortunately, in Iran, we are witnessing the widespread production of pseudoscience by government officials, some experts close to the government, and media and journalists close to them, and the promotion of pseudoscience instead of science in Iran is concerning." Raisi's claim of improving economic conditions comes at a time when the price of one US dollar in the Iranian market is currently around 64,000 tomans, and many observers predict the continuation of this trend. Among them, Siamak Javadi, an economist, predicted in an interview with Voice of America that the depreciation of the rial will continue, and the price of the dollar will reach at least 85,000 tomans.