Reuters: Iran's Oil Production Has Increased

On Monday, October 2, Reuters reported that OPEC's oil production increased in the months of July and August due to higher output from Nigeria and Iran, despite the organization's members' efforts to support the oil market. Reuters added that OPEC's oil production in August rose by 120,000 barrels per day compared to July. OPEC's production in August had also shown an increase compared to June, attributed to the rise in production from Nigeria and Iran despite the ongoing decline in oil production in Saudi Arabia and other members of the OPEC+ coalition to support the market. According to this report, oil production last month from OPEC member countries was 27.73 million barrels per day, reflecting an increase of 120,000 barrels per day compared to August. The production in August had increased for the first time since last February. The report indicates that Nigeria had the largest production increase in August, although it faced issues such as crude oil theft and insecurity in the oil-rich region. The second-largest production increase was attributed to the Islamic Republic, which has been increasing oil supply despite U.S. sanctions, reaching its highest production level since 2018 at 3.15 million barrels per day over the past two months. Based on transportation data and sources in this study, Nigeria increased its exports in September without any major transportation disruptions, raising its production by 110,000 barrels per day. The country plans to further increase its production by next year. Analysts suggest that Iran's increased exports appear to be a result of Tehran's success in circumventing U.S. sanctions and Washington's discretion in enforcing them, as both countries seek better relations. According to this research, production from the 10 OPEC members subject to the OPEC+ supply reduction agreement increased by 80,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries remain committed to voluntary production cuts. Saudi Arabia maintained its production level from the past two months close to 9 million barrels per day and extended its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day to further support the market. Meanwhile, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates slightly increased their production. OPEC's production is still about 700,000 barrels per day below the desired level, mainly because Nigeria and Angola do not have the production capacity to meet the agreed level. Oil is on the verge of reaching $100; OPEC+ maintains its current oil production strategy. Oil prices have reached their highest level in the past 10 months. Production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia have significantly increased crude oil prices over the past six weeks. Iran has raised its oil sale prices to Asian buyers. Iran's exports of 'cheap oil' have increased alongside Saudi production cuts. Experts predict that global oil prices will be around $80 to $100 by the end of this year.