Secretary General of the Oil Industry Federation Warns of Gas Imbalance; We Will Soon Become Gas Importers

With the arrival of winter in Iran, concerns over increasing gas imbalance and potential gas cuts have intensified. In this context, the Secretary General of the Oil Industry Federation has issued a thought-provoking warning about the future, stating that the gas imbalance will reach 500 to 550 million cubic meters per day by the end of 1410 (2021-2022) and that 'we will transition from being an exporter to an importer.' Erfan Afazali announced that gas production in Iran accounts for 4.6% of the world's total natural gas production, emphasizing that 'in terms of production, we are the third country after Russia and the USA' and 'in terms of consumption, we rank fourth in the world.' According to Afazali, the plans for the exploitation of South Pars have not been fully realized, which is the most significant factor behind the gas imbalance in Iran. However, the issue of gas imbalance and shortages has reportedly forced government officials and the Minister of Oil to engage in 'achievement fabrication' and 'statistical manipulation.' In this regard, the newspaper 'Shargh' reported on Saturday, December 2, that the Minister of Oil recently stated that gas production from South Pars has increased by 50 million cubic meters under this government. However, detailed examinations of each phase and production complex indicate that this statement is far from reality, with only about five million cubic meters added to daily gas production. The newspaper 'Khorasan' also reacted to the Minister's claims, stating that his remarks suggest the country will experience this winter with minimal gas challenges, while reports indicate that 'resolving the gas imbalance is a more fundamental issue that requires time.' Morteza Behrouzifar, a senior energy expert, told the newspaper 'Jahan San'at' that 'given the situation we had last year, we should not expect a better situation this year since practically nothing significant has been done during this time, except for Phase 11, which brought a small volume online.' The government of Ebrahim Raisi, however, in response to media reports and criticisms, published a statement on the government’s information website blaming previous administrations for this imbalance and emphasized that 'before the start of the thirteenth government, no projects had been defined to increase gas production capacity, and the thirteenth government had to spend a lot of time bringing new gas production capacities online.' Over two years into Raisi's administration, the government continues to attribute shortcomings in various economic, political, and social sectors to Hassan Rouhani's administration. However, the reality is that today's conditions in Iran across all dimensions are the result of four decades of Islamic Republic governance. Analysts state that overcoming the current situation and any potential openings require fundamental changes in governance. A harsh winter is on the way; the Minister of Oil announced a 6% increase in gas consumption. Iran, simultaneously facing a 'budget deficit,' has expressed readiness to assist in the sale of Russian gas. A winter filled with 'mazut burning' is approaching; the cost of power outages in the summer reached $6 billion. Research results: Why has Iran fallen into a severe electricity and gas crisis? Continued power outages in homes and industries; nuclear power plants account for 5% of the country's electricity production.