Taliban's Promise to Protect the Turkmenistan-India Gas Pipeline

Following the commencement of the Afghan section of the TAPI pipeline (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India) on Friday, March 5, reports indicate that the Turkmen section of the project has also been completed, and the Pakistani section is set to begin next month. In this context, the Taliban has made a rare commitment to 'protect' this project. The 1,814-kilometer pipeline is expected to transport 33 billion cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan's 'Galkynysh' field to the mentioned countries annually starting in 2020. The estimated cost of this project is $10 billion, with Turkmenistan holding an 85% stake. This pipeline is a competitor to the so-called 'Peace Pipeline,' which was intended to send gas from Iran's South Pars field to Pakistan and India, but India withdrew from the project due to increased sanctions against Iran, and Pakistan has yet to construct the pipeline on its territory despite signing a contract to receive 8 billion cubic meters of Iranian gas annually since January 2015. Recently, Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, Iran's Minister of Oil, stated that he believes a lawsuit should be filed against Pakistan in international courts. For the first time, Turkmenistan is investing in a gas pipeline outside its territory. Although the country has been a gas exporter to Russia, Iran, and China for years, it has never engaged in pipeline construction projects outside its borders. Russia halted gas imports from Turkmenistan two years ago. The Ashgabat government also stopped gas sales to the Islamic Republic last January due to a $1.8 billion debt owed by Iran. Currently, Turkmenistan's only gas customers are China (via the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China pipeline) and Azerbaijan (through gas exchange with Iran), which imported about 37 billion cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan last year. Several years ago, Iran and Russia together imported about 25 billion cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan annually, and with the cessation of gas sales to these countries, the Ashgabat government is seeking new markets. Recently, Turkmenistan has also begun negotiations with the Baku government to export its gas through the 3,500-kilometer 'Southern Gas Corridor' pipeline to Europe, and recently, for the first time, officials from this country attended a project consultation meeting in Baku. Turkmenistan is the world's fourth-largest holder of gas after Iran, Russia, and Qatar, with an annual production capacity of over 70 billion cubic meters of gas. During a meeting yesterday in Herat, the presidents of Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, as well as the Prime Minister of Pakistan and the Minister of State for External Affairs of India, also initiated the project for electricity transfer from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and the development of a railway from Turkmenistan into Afghanistan. Afghanistan and Pakistan are customers for Iranian electricity. Iran is also an importer of electricity from Turkmenistan. According to the annual report of Iran's Ministry of Energy, last year, Iran exported a total of over 1.2 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity to Pakistan and Afghanistan and imported 3 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity from Turkmenistan. In a rare statement following the announcement of the commencement of the TAPI pipeline development in Afghanistan, the Taliban declared its support for the project and pledged to protect it. According to Reuters, Qari Mohammad Yousuf Ahmadi, a Taliban spokesman, stated in a press release that 'the Islamic Emirate (Taliban) sees this project as part of the development of Afghanistan's economic infrastructure and the interests of its people.' The TAPI project was negotiated among the involved countries several years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but operational work began in 2015. At that time, Turkmenistan began constructing the pipeline on its territory, but after laying 25 kilometers of pipeline, the project was halted due to falling gas prices, financial issues, and ongoing unrest in Afghanistan, and work resumed last year. Pakistan claims it will begin construction of the pipeline on its territory next month. Approximately 214 kilometers of this pipeline are located in Turkmenistan, 774 kilometers in Afghanistan, and 826 kilometers in Pakistan. Besides receiving gas from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan will also earn revenue from the transit of gas to India. Turkmenistan will also earn income from gas transit, as it holds an 85% stake in financing and constructing the TAPI pipeline.